Free Counters
Kennedy Western University Online

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Mike Vick, Jeff Lisandro, and 7 card stud

So I guess just about everyone with an opinion has weighed in on the Michael Vick dog fighting story. Ya know what never ceases to amaze me? - How easy it is to get the closet idiots to come out when there's a controversial story in the news. Take any story, from the super serious (War in Iraq), to the not-so-serious (Miss USA drinking controversy) and you'll find a line of quasi intellectuals spouting some of the most ridiculous conclusions imaginable.

Take for example, the comments of the highly esteemed president of the NCAA in Atlanta who claims, "Michael Vick has received more negative press than if he had killed a human being."

Or the comments of basketball superstar Stephon Marbury who said, "We don't say anything about people that shoot deer or shoot other animals. From what I hear dogfighting is a sport. It's just behind closed doors."

Or the consummate humanitarian Roy Jones Jr. who came to Vick's defense, stating: "They are making this so bad, but really two dogs fighting can happen in anyone's backyard or on the street."

The best has to be from fellow NFLer Clinton Portis who told WAVY TV 10 in Virginia, "It's his property. It's his dog. If that's what he wants to do, do it....It can't be too bad of a crime. There's lots of stuff that's (a crime). There's killers on the loose...You want to hunt down Michael Vick over fighting some dogs, you know, I think people should mind their business."

Brilliant!



Speaking of brilliant, I really enjoyed watching the seven card stud coverage of the WSOP on ESPN last week. One particular play really caught my attention. I'll try to describe the play from memory (and embellish a little maybe).

Jeffery Lisandro with split 10s and a big card opens for a raise. With no overcards on the board, he is called by a single player who has 3 sequential cards (7-8-9). This player has 7 out of this 8 "first order" cards live (6s and 10s) and he has all of his "2nd order" cards live (5s and Js).
4th street looks likes bricks for both. Jeffery bets (a small, 4th street bet). The guy with the draw still has all of his drawing cards live and decides to call. Pretty standard stuff.

5th street looks like a brick for both. Jeffery keeps the lead and makes a bet and is called when the guy on the draw pairs a hole card. Still, pretty standard stuff.

6th street bricks for both players and it goes check, check.

7th street goes brick brick. Here's where it gets a little funny for me.

With an unimproved pair of 10s, Jefferey bets out. What?

I just couldn't understand why he would bet in this spot. By the way, at this level (WSOP $2000 buyin final table), I don't think players are just experimenting with different tactics that they spontaneously invent during the play of the hand. His lead bet was most definitely a deliberate, well-considered action.

Why not just check-call?

As I think through this, I'm really conflicted. On the one hand, I just read a really good book (The Mathematics of Poker by William Chen) who does a great job showing mathematically if an opponent will bluff on the river just a small amount of the time, you should call all the time. Conversely, if an opponent will fold only occasionally to a bet on the river, a player should bet/bluff all of time. This would seems to suggest that with such a mediocre hand (10s)- but a hand that can beat a bluff, Jeffery should just check and hope for a check behind but he should call if he is bet into. Isn't check/call the best play?

On the other hand, since Jeffery is going to be putting a bet into the pot anyway, there is a pretty strong argument for going ahead and just leading out. Here's the logic. Betting out continues to up your "aggressiveness quotient". It keeps the pressure on. It's just good poker.
Occasionally (let's say 1 out of 8 times), you might get an opponent to lay down a better hand. Plus, occasionally (let's say 1 time out of 8), you'll get called by someone who holds a worse hand but who can beat a busted draw, so you are getting some value. In essence, the few times you get someone to lay down a better hand plus the few times you get someone to call with a worse hand gives you a sort of "free roll" on a bet that you were planning to put into the pot anyway. You are just changing the "when" part of the river bet. When you change the timing of when this bet goes into the pot (you lead with the bet instead of calling with the bet), you get to free-roll on the occasional "bonus" outcome - when your opponent folds a winning hand or when he calls with a loosing hand.

Of course, the downside is that if you lead out with a bet and your opponent hits his draw, he'll probably raise you. I think this raise is such a reliable predication that you are beat, that you can safely just fold here and not give up any value. After all, how big of a donkey would you have to be to raise into the guy that has taken the lead the whole way on a pure bluff? I can't see this happening hardly ever. Its probably pretty safe that if you are raised after leading out, you can fold your mediocre hand.

So in the final analysis, Jeffery's lead bet on the river with a mediocre, unimproved hand in seven card stud was probably one of those advanced, world-class type plays that the rest of us small stakes chumps can't hardly appreciate.

Monday, August 06, 2007

Only Problem - There's no queen!

So I’ve been continuing to tick up then down, then up, then down. Last 3 sessions: -$55, +$140, -$105.

First Session (-$55): $1/$2 and $2/$4 limit mixed game shenanigans. Most memorable hand was the last hand of the night. The game was $2/$4 limit Omaha High/lo. The pot was god awful big. I got a little out of hand by raising/capping preflop with Ah-Qx-10x-5h. Then, when the flop came high only (9s-10x-Js), I thought I could run people with low hands out of the pot. With 4 players (I’m acting 3rd), it goes bet, call, raise (me), call, re-reaise, call, cap (me), call, call, call. Then, the perfect card came off on the turn. A King hits and I make the nuts. Three of us put in another 2 bets. The river was a horrible card. The Ks comes off making a flush and paired board. Action goes check to me, I check, Hespy bets and says “I got there again”, Flushie check-raises him. I fold, Hespy calls and shows Jack full of Kings. Flushie slow rolls quad kings. He went runner-runner Kings to make quads and win a $100 pot.

That got me to thinking about a leak in my game (probably yours too) when it comes to playing the last hand or last round of the night. I notice people really start playing some marginal hands when the “last round” is announced. I, not wanting to miss an opportunity to play against others who may be playing weak holdings, usually end up throwing in a small bet as well to see what hits the board – big mistake. I hereby resolve to stop playing bad hands toward the end of a session.

Second Session (+$140): This was a game of $2/$4 limit Hold’Em, 10 handed, deep stacks, the players were all very creative and aggressive. The betting was often capped preflop with real marginal holdings (i.e. 3h – 5h). Very unusual hands were winning pots. This was going to be a tough game to crack.

1st observation: I’ve seen the same betting pattern emerge from some of those loose, wild maniacs. They bet/raise with any hand, proudly showing down their weird plays - win or lose. Then, when you are not paying attention, they switch gears and really tighten up. This is a pretty good strategy, because as they are playing the loose, maniac style, they occassionally win big pots, then when they switch gears, they get people to start calling them down with bottom pair and they start winning extra bets.

2nd observation: I noticed some players are really affected by playing with maniacs. They tend to really shut down on their creativity and aggressiveness. They turn into check/calling stations. This is a big mistake. One of the most effective weapons against the manic is the check-raise and the re-reraise. I was determined not to become passive. Instead, as I saw this pattern starting to emerge (people playing like maniacs and then switching to a tighter style), I thought I’d swim upstream and play really tight but really aggressive at the beginning. It worked! I caught big hands (Q-Q and 10-10) and won some nice pots. I suffered a couple of suck-outs and I’m back to even. Then, when the table started tightening up, I started pushing with marginal hands and I was able to score some nice pots without a showdown and by hitting some suck-out hands.

Third Session (-$105): Down tick -$50 from a Limit Hold’Em tournament. I played really, really bad. 1st mistake-I didn’t really have a game plan. I just sort of went into this thing “winging” it. The stacks were deep ($5000), the blind levels were long (30 min) and the blinds were small $25/$50. In limit poker, there is no chance you can stack anyone by playing a hand creatively. There are no good bluffing opportunities during the first few stages. The optimal strategy would have been to fold all but the top 10 hands. I didn’t!

If I found a hand to play and was first to act, I’d raise (not a bad play), but then when the flop missed, I’d continue to bet (not too bad), when called, I continue to bet the turn (not too smart). Then, I’d fire one last bullet on the river. I ran this same play about 3 times and found myself nearly out of chips in the third level. If I didn’t learn my lesson, I tried this move from UTG with a Kd-Qd. I raised and it was folded around to the big blind. He calls. The flop is a blank J-4-5. He checks. I bet. He calls. (Alarms should be going off now). The turn is another 5. The board reads J-4-5-5. I bet and as I’m making change for my $1000 chip, he check raises me (the sirens should be deafening at this point). I call without thinking. (Huge mistake. Just fold it JJ – ya got nothing and you were just check raised). The river is a blank. I can beat a bluff, but now I’m out of chips. BB bets and I have to call my last $200. He shows down a hand with a 5 and I’m out early.

Lesson here – go into the tournament with some sort of strategy. Think about the situation that is presented with the starting chips, the blind levels, the caliber of players, etc… Don’t just wing it. A “top 10 strategy” would probably have won this tournament.

The cash game after was pretty fun (down tick $55). We played round-by-round Pot Limit Omaha and NL Hold’Em with $1/$1 blinds and a $40 cap. The Omaha rounds played more like limit and were frequently capped and called multi-way. An interesting hand came up that had everyone wondering “what are the odds of that?” We’ll here they are. I ran the simulation on Sunday, but have lost the details. Here’s the best of my recollection

Rock is in the SB. Ryno calls. TLowe calls. JJ (Ks 5s Kc 6c) raises to $6. MP player calls. Rock raises to around $32. Ryno caps at $40. TLowe tanks it and finally folds. JJ calls. MP player folds. Rock calls. Showdown time.

Rock show (9c-7c-9d-Xd). Ryno shows (Ad-Xd-Ax-Xx). Rock is 22% (4:1) when he was getting 2:1 on his money. Ryno was about 42% (1.4:1) in a pot where he was laying 2:1 on his money. JJ was about 33% (2:1) and laying 2:1. So, whose the Donkey? Would you believe no one? That’s right. Everyone played the hand pretty much correctly.

Ryno called from first position with Aces. From 1st position you can’t adequately protect a hand like Aces. Your opening bet can only be $4. Open betting $4 is like inviting everyone behind you to come in. You get more callers with a $4 opening bet than if you just limp. He planned to check-raise if given the opportunity or open bet pot if the flop comes harmless. Not bad.

JJ's pot sized bet with double suited Ks was pretty good. I could make it $6. This hand is pretty good, but I would really like to be acting last after the flop. Maybe this bet will buy me the button.

Rock’s pot sized reraise was pretty good as well. Rock is holding cards that other players are probably not holding. He stands a good chance of taking down the pot with his re-reraise. Even if he’s called, he figures to only be about a 2:1 dog if he gets heads-up against someone holding Aces or Kings or 4 Broadway cards.

Ryno’s cap is automatic – he’s holding Aces for God’s sake.

JJ’s call is a little thin. I’m holding Ks (good). I’m double suited (good), but I’m not really a big favorite over hardly anyone. I’ve only put $6 into this pot. I could be (and probably am) up against Aces which makes me a dog. I won’t be able to bet anyone out of the pot (it’s already capped). A fold here would be OK. I think a call here is OK as well.

Turns out Rock wins it and adds $80 more in chips to his mountain.

Donkey play(s) of the night. JJ shows real aggression through the turn in an Omaha hand when suddenly Jules takes the initiative and caps the river for another $16 dollars. JJ tanks it and finally calls. Brandon comments, “nice call JJ with your pair of deuces”. I’m insulted and claim that I turned 2 pair Qs and 2s – only problem is that when I recheck the board there is no queen. Then, in a hand of Omaha 8, I make a marginal high (2 pair) and a marginal low (live 6) and decided to call a pretty big river bet from Andy. Andy claims a set of deuces for the high. I check and recheck and finally claim that I have a live 6 for the low half. The table erupts in laughter and reminds me that we are playing Omaha High – no low.

Friday, August 03, 2007

Best Razz Hand I ever played

How funny is this.... not really my best hand - but still funny.

PokerStars 16 person H.O.R.S.E tourney
--------------------------------------------
Seat 1: SussexGal111 (1150 in chips)
Seat 2: billyr99 (1680 in chips)
Seat 3: donkslayer2 (1910 in chips)
Seat 4: NESS13513 (1350 in chips)
Seat 5: Cornhuskerfn (1260 in chips)
Seat 6: rivs15 (1483 in chips)
Seat 7:LitlThunder (1770 in chips)
Seat 8: BARKMAN111 (1397 in chips)
billyr99: posts the ante 8donkslayer2: posts the ante 8NESS13513: posts the ante 8Cornhuskerfn: posts the ante 8rivs15: posts the ante 8LitlThunder: posts the ante 8BARKMAN111: posts the ante 8SussexGal111: posts the ante 8

*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to SussexGal111 [8s]
Dealt to billyr99 [Kd]
Dealt to donkslayer2 [Kh]
Dealt to NESS13513 [6c]
Dealt to Cornhuskerfn [8d Jc Ad]
Dealt to rivs15 [Qd]
Dealt to LitlThunder [Ks]
Dealt to BARKMAN111 [Ah]

LitlThunder: brings in for 12
BARKMAN111: folds
SussexGal111: folds
billyr99: calls
12donkslayer2: folds
NESS13513: calls 12
Cornhuskerfn: raises 28 to 40
rivs15: calls 40
LitlThunder: calls 28
billyr99: calls 28
NESS13513: calls 28

*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to billyr99 [Kd] [5h]
Dealt to NESS13513 [6c] [2c]
Dealt to Cornhuskerfn [8d Jc Ad] [4h]
Dealt to rivs15 [Qd] [Qc]
Dealt to LitlThunder [Ks] [4s]

Cornhuskerfn: bets 40
rivs15: raises 40 to 80
LitlThunder: calls 80
billyr99: folds
NESS13513: calls
80Cornhuskerfn: raises 40 to 120
rivs15: raises 40 to 160 - Betting is capped
LitlThunder: calls 80
billyr99 said, "i wont tell"
NESS13513: calls 80
Cornhuskerfn: calls 40

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to NESS13513 [6c 2c] [4d]
Dealt to Cornhuskerfn [8d Jc Ad 4h] [3s]
Dealt to rivs15 [Qd Qc] [Js]
Dealt to LitlThunder [Ks 4s] [2d]

Cornhuskerfn: bets 80
rivs15: raises 80 to 160
billyr99 said, "i promise"
LitlThunder: calls 160
NESS13513: calls 160
Cornhuskerfn: raises 80 to 240
rivs15: raises 80 to 320 - Betting is capped
LitlThunder: calls 160
billyr99 said, "this is great"
NESS13513: calls 160
Cornhuskerfn: calls 80

*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to NESS13513 [6c 2c 4d] [Jh]
Dealt to Cornhuskerfn [8d Jc Ad 4h 3s] [8c]
Dealt to rivs15 [Qd Qc Js] [Qs]
Dealt to LitlThunder [Ks 4s 2d] [Qh]
donkslayer2 said, "lol"
Cornhuskerfn: bets 80
rivs15: raises 80 to 160
LitlThunder: calls 160
billyr99 said, "yes"
donkslayer2 said, "quads"
billyr99 said, "hopefully"
donkslayer2 said, "cant be"
NESS13513: folds
donkslayer2 said, "lol"
Cornhuskerfn said, "sssshhh"
Cornhuskerfn: raises 80 to 240
rivs15: raises 80 to 320 - Betting is capped
LitlThunder: calls 160
Cornhuskerfn: calls 80

*** RIVER ***
Dealt to Cornhuskerfn [8d Jc Ad 4h 3s 8c] [2h]
billyr99 said, "wtf"
Cornhuskerfn: bets 80
rivs15: raises 80 to 160
billyr99 said, "too late now"
BARKMAN111 said, "duh.."
billyr99 said, "nitwits--and you had 2 of them"
LitlThunder: calls 160
Cornhuskerfn: raises 80 to 240
rivs15: raises 80 to 320 - Betting is capped
LitlThunder: calls 160
Cornhuskerfn: calls 80

*** SHOW DOWN ***
rivs15: shows [7c 7s Qd Qc Js Qs Th] (Lo: 7,7,Q,J,T)
LitlThunder: shows [Ac 3d Ks 4s 2d Qh Jd] (Lo: J,4,3,2,A)
Cornhuskerfn: shows [8d Jc Ad 4h 3s 8c 2h] (Lo: 8,4,3,2,A)
Cornhuskerfn collected 4104 from pot

As it turns out LitlThunder was drawing to any 5,6,7,8 to beat me and only 2 or three of these cards were dead. I'm glad he caught a bad river card.

Compton completes journey to top

"I loved everything about Nebraska," Compton, the nation's No. 13 inside linebacker, said. "I loved the facilities, I loved the people, ....

Read more...

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?