JJ's Blog

So I had several 'ah ha' observations while watching this year's WSOP. The coverage concluded last night with the episode where Jamie Gold wins the main event and $12 million. Did I somehow miss the H.O.R.S.E. event coverage? I can't find any mention of this coverage on the ESPN web site. Please let me know. Anyway, my 2 observations were as follows. I know. I know...pretty basic stuff.

Throw it down big man, throw it down!
The main observation I had (which was also confirmed by watching a few episodes of High Stakes Poker on GSN), is how easily pros can lay down hands like top top (top pair with top kicker). I have this problem of not being able to lay down AJ when the board reads Jx7x8x and I get check raised for 1/2 of my stack. When I do lay this hand down, I feel like I should hang a sign around my neck that reads "I'm a weak passive player - please make plays at me". When I don't lay down this hand I usually find myself sliding a significant portion of my stack toward some "lucky ass" who played a stupid hand like 7s8s or 7x7x even in the face of my raise.

I'm also thoroughly amazed by how some of the players in the home games I play have difficulty releasing even 2nd or 3rd pair on the river. It's like being bluffed out of a pot is much worse than paying off a big value bet on the river. I think these players are the ones that keep an average player like me making a little money. Amazing!

Pay attention stupid!
Another thing I noticed was how remarkably reliable betting patterns are as tells. Sure, occasionally someone will really make a strange bet and throw you off. In my opinion, from playing a little poker and watching a little on TV, these betting patterns are much more reliable than things like eye movements, breathing, gibberish talk, etc...

So Shaq is a poor free-thrower. I think most people would agree. I'm guessing his career average is somewhere around 50%. It seems like no matter what happens, he just can't improve. So, last season when Shaq hit 8 out of 10 in a game against the Lakers, I had to ask the question, "what's the chance of that?".

When you examine the 'streak' that Shaq went on to hit 8 out of 10, there is a lot of parallels that can be found in other areas (i.e. poker). When do we need to stop considering a good run a "lucky streak" and actually change our expectations? For example, if Shaq were to go onto hit 80 out of 100, we might need to stop considering this simply a hot streak as we wait for him to return to his 50% free-throw average. Instead, we might need to re-adjust our expectations that he is now an 80% free-thrower.

I think you can use the poisson distribution (from Stats 101) to do the math part. If you have excel, you can use the poisson function to answer the question "if we expect Shaq to hit 5 out of 10 free throws (his current average), what is the chance he'll hit 8 out of 10 or more?". The answer is a 13% probability.

What this stats function does not answer is, "when does a 'streak' end and improved performance begin?"

For example, I'm an average poker player. I make way too many mistakes to be considered any better than average. As a matter of fact, average may be a stretch for me. I don't pay attention to my cards. I don't assess situations correctly. I'm average. Being that I'm an average player, I have an expectation that I'll have a winning session about 50% of the time. Some sessions I'll win. Some sessions I'll lose. Some sessions I'll win a lot. Some I'll lose a lot. In the end, I'll win about 50% of the time and break about even on the money.

If I play 20 sessions and win 10 of those session, I'll have confirmed my assumption about being an average player. However, (and this is the important part), if during my next 10 sessions, I win 9 of them, at what point do I stop considering this some lucky streak of cards and actually start adjusting my expectation upward?

I'm having a hard time, considering myself anything other than an average player, but I've been on a hot streak that has me winning 12 of the last 13 home cash game sessions. According to Poisson, the chances of that are 3.4% (like hitting a 1 outer on the river). Maybe I'm just on a lucky streak. Maybe it's like catching that 1 outer. Hey, it happens. I 'dunno.' Maybe I'm thinking about this wrong. Let me know! Maybe I shouldn't be thinking about this at all.

As an offset. I've managed to run my online accounts dry. Nobel was $200 - now $0, Party was $100 - now $0, PokerStars was $400 - now $0. UB was $250 - now $0. Considering I only deposited about $150 total into these accounts to open them, its not quite that bad....but it keeps me humble.

So I have 2 bluff attempts to share with you and discuss why 1 worked and why one failed.

The failed bluff Attempt:
The situation: It was a home game. $1/$2 no limit Hold'Em. Many of the players had just busted out of a tournament and were eager to get some action quickly. The game was new. Most players bought in for the max $100. It looked like almost everyone was prepared to make several buyins in needed. The table was made up of about 1/2 strong/solid players and about 1/2 somewhat weaker players.

I was dealt AJo in the cuttoff. It's folded around to me. I raise to $12 (standard) and get called by the button and a blind. The flop comes 8 9 10 giving me an open ender. The blind opens for around $15. This player will make bluff attempts when it is still cheap - on the flop, but tends to pull back a little on the turn/river. I called hoping the button would not blast us off the hand. The button smooth called. The turn brings a king. The blind checks. Now I start considering my options. First, I hate multiway posts on the turn/river. It makes hold'em a whole lot harder when you have 2 oponents to worry about. I start putting the blind on the following range (a straight draw-7 or J, a weak A, or even a gut shot 6). I was worried about the button - a player who has shown a willingness to move his chips into the pot. I decided to take one off and check and hope to catch gold on the river. The button checked behind. Whew! The river is a brick. The pot has around $80. The blind checks. I'm sure he has a busted draw. I'm postive he has no ability to call any bets. Plus, I'm pretty sure that I can't win this pot without a bet with just A high and an overcall from the button on the flop. I put the button on a 10 (K10 or Q10) and I figured he might fold with the King on the board. So I muster up some nerve and bluff bet $50 into this $80 pot. As hoped, the button folds. I've mentally began to stakc the chips in this pot when, the blind calls and shows 9J and collects a nice pot. He had middle pair and a gut shot when he opend the pot on the flop - not bad. He really didn't like getting called in 2 spots. The King scared him so he backed off on the turn & river.

Why this bluff didn't work? The main reason that the bluff didn't work was that I didn't paint a consistent picture. I called on the flop. If I wanted my opponents to put me on a 10, I needed to bluff the turn. When I checked the turn, the blind got suspicious. When I bet $50 into an $80 pot on the river, the blind, recogonizing a betting pattern, read this as a naked bluff. The only hands he could beat were a naked bluff as any 10, K, or 9 better kicker, would win the pot. This was also a lesson in picking your victims. There are players that just can't lay down a hand. The correct strategy is to value bet the living shit out of these players and just pass on bluffing. I've learned the lesson here.

The successful bluff attempt:
The situation: Late into the evening, same game, mostly a different cast of players. The table is much tougher now, but the decision quality is going down a little. I open the pot for a standard raise in middle position with Q10. It's folded around to a blind, who calls. The flop comes A J x. The blind bets about $15 into a $30 pot. I call. The blind is a tough player. He had recently ran his stack from 100 up to about 300. I had about 350. I had the feeling he'd wouldn't mind putting some money in this pot at this point. I didn't memorize my cards too well and I refused to re-peak when the flop hit. I knew I had a gut shot and figured I could take a large portion of his stack with hitting my gut shot. Or, with position, I might be able to win the pot if a scare card comes. The turn brings a Q. The board reads A Q J x. I can't remember my hole cards precisely, but I really think I just connected on my gut shot. It's checked to me. I check but just can't bring myself to repeak at my hole cards. I'm pretty sure I have the nuts. The river is a 3. It's checked to me. I'm pretty sure I have the nuts - but not 100% sure. In any case, I have a pretty scary board and position and it was checked twice. I pause for a few seconds and push out $60 into a $60 pot and declare that I do not have an Ace. After a few moments of deliberation, the blind's cards hit the muck face up and reveal an Ace. I hear some grumbling about 2 pair. I immediately check my hole cards. Oh Shit! I had second pair - weak.

Why this bluff worked? I convinced myself I had the hand I was representing. Every action I took was consistent with the hand I was representing. And I bluffed into a player that is capable of making a good decsions. Actually, this doesn't really count as a bluff since I had misread my hand, but there is an excellent lesson here. Don't you think?

Lesson #1: Run bluffs at players that think - value bet players that will call on "principal" without thinking through the situation. Lesson #2: Paint a consistent picture on all streets.

So this is my first post on any poker strategy. Below are my thoughts regarding raising/reraising preflop in limit Omaha8. This may be a bunch of crap and I invite your comments. I didn't read this anywhere. This is my own pile of horse manure.

General Philosophy: I think there are probably an equal number of compelling reasons to raise preflop in limit Omaha 8 as there are in limit Hold'Em, but I think most players fail to recogonize these - probably because the difference between strong and mediocre hands is much smaller in LO8 as compared to Holdem. Basically, I use the same approach in LO8 that most people use in Hold'Em. I like to raise to thin the field and raise for value. Raising helps define your hand and set up plays on the later streets. Using a simple, "never raise" philosophy is, in my opinion, a weak play. Even if you are playing a version of no-foldem LO8, your raises for value are profitable and if your raise gets only 2 people (out of 6) to fold that would have limped had you not raised, you've improved your chance to win 33%...pretty cool!

First let me describe 3 types of hands. The first type of hand, called 'monsters' are the most premium of hands - hands that have excellent 2 way potential (i.e., As Ks Kh 2h or As 2s Ah 3h). The second type of hand is a low only hand. This hand has very little potential to win the high portion of the pot but excellent potential to win the low 1/2 of the pot (i.e., Ax 2x 3x 8x). The third type of hand is a "high only" hand. This hand has excellent potential to win the high 1/2 of the pot or to scoop a high only pot (i.e., 10s Js Qh Kh).

To recap, there are 3 types of hands; monsters, low only, and high only.

Monsters: I ordinarilly like to raise in any postion with monsters. If I'm first into the pot, raising makes it 2 bets cold to any callers. This pressure tends to limit the field and improve my chances of winning. If I get callers, I figure to be a favorite - which is a good outcome as well. If I get reraised, great-this puts even more pressure on weak hands and weak players. A reraise from the next player to act is usually because they need the protection of isolation. Raising with monsters has meta-game impacts as people might learn to respect your raises.... Or, maybe not.

Low only: I ordinarilly like to call with low only holdings from all positions. I'd like to see about 8 people to the flop when I hold A2. With large fields, I figure to be taking 1/2 the pot from players that are making marginal bets/calls post flop with bottom 2 pair, 2nd nut low, etc... This is a very profitable situation. Even if I end up getting quartered, I can still make a little or break even when the field is large preflop. The story here,.....call and encourage others to do the same.

The exception is that I like to raise with marginal low only hands when I'm first into the pot and have some reasonable chance of folding some hands behind me. For example, I will raise with Ax 4x 5x 8x as the first person into a pot in hopes of thinninig the field and folding holdings like 2x 3x X X, or Ax 3x X X , or even hands like 4x 5x 6x 9x. This also gives me some deception as I will raise with both monsters or marginal low only hands.

High Only: I love to play high only hands. These hands have excellent potential to scoop high only pots (which happen about a third of the time). To make this hand profitable though, the pot should to be multi-way preflop (3 or 4 players ideally) without a raise; therefore, I like to limp in from late postion with high only hands. When the flop come highish (2 high cards), you'll sometimes get some extra dead money contributed to the pot from people with low only hands hoping to hit running low cards for a chance to win 1/2 the pot. This is an excellent situation for a high only hand and a highish board. Limping with this type of hand also adds some deception as I also limp with low only holdings. The key here is to let it go when you miss. You must be disciplined here. For example you hold 9x 10x Jx Qx, and the flop comes 7s 8s 8h. With the flop 2 suited, callers could be chasing the nut flush with some low holdings. This limits your outs. When a straight card 6 comes, your calls will be crying calls hoping for 1/2 the pot. You've got to let these hands go. You missed. You are calling with high only hands for their potential to scoop. When the flop comes lowish, you've missed and must give up pretty quickly. In addition, a high only hand with a dangler is trash - throw it away immediately (i.e., Ks Qs Jx 5x)

So there you have it. Now you know how I play and can take my money.

A diversion into politics…

Last year about this time, I got the biggest kick out of a political stunt by our governor. She exhorted the residents of the state of Michigan to sign a petition demanding that President Bush do something to lower gas prices. http://www.michigan.gov/gov/0,1607,7-168-21974-126331--M_2005_9,00.html

I got a chuckle out of this because I, like most semi-informed economists, understand how powerful the forces of a market economy can be in controlling prices and how relatively ineffective governmental market controls can be.

Anyway, now that gas prices are lower (as low as $2.50/gallon in some areas), don’t you think our governor should send a thank you note to President Bush thanking him for lowering the price of gas? It makes just as much sense doesn’t it?

Ok. We need to get the flywheel moving. It starts off slow. A lot of effort is needed to make a little progress.

A 2nd place followed by another 2nd place on Party Poker on 10 person SNGs. This time it was a $6 PL Omaha8 SNG. Account is now over $50. Keep the positive momentum.

So I was able to run my PokerStars account from $25 up to over $500 and then back down to around $60. What a Donkey! Then, I was able to run my Nobel poker account from $25 to $500 and then back down. What a Donkey!

Now, I just got a welcome back incentive from Party Poker and I'm dedicating myself to running this account to $1000 in 6 months. I learned from my work in the business world that is important to have specific, challenging, and reasonble goals. So this is my goal - Party Poker account from $25 to $1000 in 6 months.



I started with $10 plus the $25 bounus = $35. First session was a 2nd place finish in an $11 SNG. That'll net me $19. New balance = $54.

Now, what games should I play? My strongest games are limit $1/$2 or $2/$4 Omaha8. I do pretty good on the Omaha High SNGs and PL ($.25/$50) Omaha8 ring games. Maybe I'll just stick to the low buyin NLHE SNGs....we'll see.

Huskers open with Lousianna Tech on Sat. Plenty of reasons to be optimistic this year. Go Big Red!