Monday, October 16, 2006
Stereotyping - Good or Bad?
So I went to Greektown on Sunday afternoon. I had some free time and some built up “goodwill” with the wife as a result of painting the kids bedroom and letting her travel out of town last weekend by herself. Good session – won $331. Whooo Hooo!
I was hoping to find a table full of Lions fans drinking it up and paying more attention to the football game that was just concluding than on poker. I took a seat in the non-smoking area – I highly recommend this for the non-smokers. My table looked tough. Several people had $200 or more. The max buy-in at the table was $100. And no one was watching the game. Dammit!
As I looked around the table I immediately began a ritual that I perform at the start of every session – I started stereotyping.
First, there was a young, straggly looking kid, 26ish, gote, backward hat, etc… with about $400 in front of him. In an instant, I typed him as a very aggressive, solid player, really likes to raise and exert pressure. I’ll call this guy “shaggy” (from Scooby Doo).
2 seats to the right was a good-ole boy, big handle bar mustache, 240, 40ish, lions Jersey, about $100 in front. I typed him as a fish. He wished he could play better. He was not going to be bluffed by any wised-assed punk kid. Fish. I’ll call this guy “Boss Hog” (from Dukes of Hazard)
2 seats to his right was new guy to the table. He fumbled his $100 initial buy in. He had a chew in his lower lip. Hasn’t shaved for 3 days. Wasn’t sure how much he needed to call on a straddled pot. He overcalled raises 3 times on his first 3 hands. On the third hand, he got bailed out when the river card made a straight on the board and he took the split. I figured this guy brought his entire bankroll and next month’s rent to the casino today. I typed this guy as a total donkey. He’d be lucky to last more than 30 minutes. I’ll call this guy “Jefro”
Then, next to him was an older gentleman. Well dressed. White beard. Very Jolly. He had a few hundred in front. This guy was typed as a rock. Weak/solid. He’d wait for a hand and then call all the way down. Do not bluff this guy and fold to his raises. I’ll call this “Rock of Ages”.
The observation: This got me to thinking. How useful is this stereotyping behavior? In business, they constantly drill into us how inappropriate it is to stereotype – react to people based on their looks or mannerisms in relation to our own experience with others in our past that looked and acted the same way. We take corporate training on how to avoid stereotyping/discriminating. They attempt to convince us how unreliable these mental models can be in predicting how another person will act/respond.
In business, I agree. Stereotyping is sufficiently unreliable enough to discard it as an ineffective means of predicting how one will act/perform. After all, we have other sources for this type of info (we can talk to colleagues, engage in direct communication, take our time, learn from observation, etc….)
But at the poker table, what else do you have? You don’t have 2 months to figure someone out. You need to make decisions almost from the first hand on how you’ll play your cards. These decisions are based on a rich mix of variables (stack size, position, player tendencies, previous action, mood, etc…). When you have no playing experience with a particular player, how do you assess the meaning of their actions (call, raise, etc…)? The only thing left is the ‘stereotype’.
So if you start to incorporate stereotypes into your decisions, how valuable (or reliable) is this information? In my opinion, the value of the stereotype is often under-estimated. I think, maybe to a fault, that stereotyping at the table can be surprisingly accurate. Maybe I’m kidding myself, but it seems like more often than not, my stereotypes are dead on. Today at Greektown, this opinion was reinforced!
First, Shaggy, straddled a pot, got 5 limpers (including me on the small blind – I was getting 9:1 on my call), he raised to $50, and collected a nice $28 pot when everyone folded. 10 hands later, he straddled again, got 3 limpers (not me), he raised his straddle to $40, and got reraised by a short stack (~$70). He reluctantly called with 6 3 offsuit and doubled up Boss Hog who showed pocked 8s. He continued to play/raise about 1 out of every 3 hands and bluff off ½ of his stack and then build it back up when someone would take a stand at the wrong time. Anyway, score 1 for Jon on Stereotyping accuracy (score 1 for 1).
Second, Boss Hog, got involved with a young Phil Ivey type seated to my right. The pot was small. Boss Hog opens the pot after the flop and is raised by Phil Ivey. After Boss Hog thinks for a while, he mucks and begins to verbally chastise Phil for potentially bluffing him. He challenges Phil “try that again. Please, just try that one more time”. Boss Hog proceeded to play good cards for the rest of the session, but he was a calling station. I saw him payoff some guy with 3rd pair (jacks), when the board had 2 Aces. Anyway, score another for Jon on Stereotyping accuracy (now 2 for 2).
Jefro lost his initial buy in about 15 minutes into the session. He lost his second buy in about 40 minutes into the session. He lost his last short buy in ($50) about 1 hour into the session. After staring in dis-belief at the felt where his chips were once stacked for about 2 minutes, he solemnly got up and left – much to the displeasure of everyone at the table. He gave most of his money to Shaggy. Anyway, score another for Jon on Stereotyping accuracy (score 3 for 3).
As for “rock of ages”, I was mostly right. I saw him re-raise and blow Shaggy off of his hand after he flopped the nut straight. A thoughtful player would have let shaggy bluff off a lot of chips with his weak hand, but “rock” didn’t want to risk Shaggy catching running full house cards on the turn and the river so he quadrupled Shaggy’s opening bet. Weak! However, Rock also called a $20 bet into a $20 pot with an A on the board when he held pocket queens. A queen fell on the turn and the Rock took a nice pot from Jefro. So I guess he wasn’t a totally weak/passive player. Maybe I got this one a little wrong. Score 3.5 out of 4. Not too bad!
Anyway, one hand to recap. On about the 5th hand of the session, I’m in middle position with AQo. One limper. I raise to $12. It’s folded to the blinds who both call as well as the limper. Pot has $48. Flop come Q 7 4 rainbow. Small blind (Jefro), bets out $20, BB folds, Limper raises all in $88. Now I have really been thinking about finding good spots to laydown Top Pair Top Kicker. This hand is only one pair. Why go broke with one pair? But I got suspicious. Why did he bet so much? If he hit a set why not smooth call? I can’t give him credit for 2 pair. No straights/flushes possible. I have no respect for Jefro’s opening bet. My concern is with the limper. I called my entire $88 remaining. I was getting 88:156 or about 2:1 on the call. I really did not figure him for a set of 7s or 4s. He had to be holding AQ just like me. Or maybe something stupid like 99. Cards were flipped. Limper held KQ for top pair second kicker. My hand held up. I more than doubled up. Off to a good session. Question, do you call an all in bet with Top Top in this situation? I only had $12 personally invested in the pot. I was not locked in. I'd welcom comments.
I was hoping to find a table full of Lions fans drinking it up and paying more attention to the football game that was just concluding than on poker. I took a seat in the non-smoking area – I highly recommend this for the non-smokers. My table looked tough. Several people had $200 or more. The max buy-in at the table was $100. And no one was watching the game. Dammit!
As I looked around the table I immediately began a ritual that I perform at the start of every session – I started stereotyping.
First, there was a young, straggly looking kid, 26ish, gote, backward hat, etc… with about $400 in front of him. In an instant, I typed him as a very aggressive, solid player, really likes to raise and exert pressure. I’ll call this guy “shaggy” (from Scooby Doo).
2 seats to the right was a good-ole boy, big handle bar mustache, 240, 40ish, lions Jersey, about $100 in front. I typed him as a fish. He wished he could play better. He was not going to be bluffed by any wised-assed punk kid. Fish. I’ll call this guy “Boss Hog” (from Dukes of Hazard)
2 seats to his right was new guy to the table. He fumbled his $100 initial buy in. He had a chew in his lower lip. Hasn’t shaved for 3 days. Wasn’t sure how much he needed to call on a straddled pot. He overcalled raises 3 times on his first 3 hands. On the third hand, he got bailed out when the river card made a straight on the board and he took the split. I figured this guy brought his entire bankroll and next month’s rent to the casino today. I typed this guy as a total donkey. He’d be lucky to last more than 30 minutes. I’ll call this guy “Jefro”
Then, next to him was an older gentleman. Well dressed. White beard. Very Jolly. He had a few hundred in front. This guy was typed as a rock. Weak/solid. He’d wait for a hand and then call all the way down. Do not bluff this guy and fold to his raises. I’ll call this “Rock of Ages”.
The observation: This got me to thinking. How useful is this stereotyping behavior? In business, they constantly drill into us how inappropriate it is to stereotype – react to people based on their looks or mannerisms in relation to our own experience with others in our past that looked and acted the same way. We take corporate training on how to avoid stereotyping/discriminating. They attempt to convince us how unreliable these mental models can be in predicting how another person will act/respond.
In business, I agree. Stereotyping is sufficiently unreliable enough to discard it as an ineffective means of predicting how one will act/perform. After all, we have other sources for this type of info (we can talk to colleagues, engage in direct communication, take our time, learn from observation, etc….)
But at the poker table, what else do you have? You don’t have 2 months to figure someone out. You need to make decisions almost from the first hand on how you’ll play your cards. These decisions are based on a rich mix of variables (stack size, position, player tendencies, previous action, mood, etc…). When you have no playing experience with a particular player, how do you assess the meaning of their actions (call, raise, etc…)? The only thing left is the ‘stereotype’.
So if you start to incorporate stereotypes into your decisions, how valuable (or reliable) is this information? In my opinion, the value of the stereotype is often under-estimated. I think, maybe to a fault, that stereotyping at the table can be surprisingly accurate. Maybe I’m kidding myself, but it seems like more often than not, my stereotypes are dead on. Today at Greektown, this opinion was reinforced!
First, Shaggy, straddled a pot, got 5 limpers (including me on the small blind – I was getting 9:1 on my call), he raised to $50, and collected a nice $28 pot when everyone folded. 10 hands later, he straddled again, got 3 limpers (not me), he raised his straddle to $40, and got reraised by a short stack (~$70). He reluctantly called with 6 3 offsuit and doubled up Boss Hog who showed pocked 8s. He continued to play/raise about 1 out of every 3 hands and bluff off ½ of his stack and then build it back up when someone would take a stand at the wrong time. Anyway, score 1 for Jon on Stereotyping accuracy (score 1 for 1).
Second, Boss Hog, got involved with a young Phil Ivey type seated to my right. The pot was small. Boss Hog opens the pot after the flop and is raised by Phil Ivey. After Boss Hog thinks for a while, he mucks and begins to verbally chastise Phil for potentially bluffing him. He challenges Phil “try that again. Please, just try that one more time”. Boss Hog proceeded to play good cards for the rest of the session, but he was a calling station. I saw him payoff some guy with 3rd pair (jacks), when the board had 2 Aces. Anyway, score another for Jon on Stereotyping accuracy (now 2 for 2).
Jefro lost his initial buy in about 15 minutes into the session. He lost his second buy in about 40 minutes into the session. He lost his last short buy in ($50) about 1 hour into the session. After staring in dis-belief at the felt where his chips were once stacked for about 2 minutes, he solemnly got up and left – much to the displeasure of everyone at the table. He gave most of his money to Shaggy. Anyway, score another for Jon on Stereotyping accuracy (score 3 for 3).
As for “rock of ages”, I was mostly right. I saw him re-raise and blow Shaggy off of his hand after he flopped the nut straight. A thoughtful player would have let shaggy bluff off a lot of chips with his weak hand, but “rock” didn’t want to risk Shaggy catching running full house cards on the turn and the river so he quadrupled Shaggy’s opening bet. Weak! However, Rock also called a $20 bet into a $20 pot with an A on the board when he held pocket queens. A queen fell on the turn and the Rock took a nice pot from Jefro. So I guess he wasn’t a totally weak/passive player. Maybe I got this one a little wrong. Score 3.5 out of 4. Not too bad!
Anyway, one hand to recap. On about the 5th hand of the session, I’m in middle position with AQo. One limper. I raise to $12. It’s folded to the blinds who both call as well as the limper. Pot has $48. Flop come Q 7 4 rainbow. Small blind (Jefro), bets out $20, BB folds, Limper raises all in $88. Now I have really been thinking about finding good spots to laydown Top Pair Top Kicker. This hand is only one pair. Why go broke with one pair? But I got suspicious. Why did he bet so much? If he hit a set why not smooth call? I can’t give him credit for 2 pair. No straights/flushes possible. I have no respect for Jefro’s opening bet. My concern is with the limper. I called my entire $88 remaining. I was getting 88:156 or about 2:1 on the call. I really did not figure him for a set of 7s or 4s. He had to be holding AQ just like me. Or maybe something stupid like 99. Cards were flipped. Limper held KQ for top pair second kicker. My hand held up. I more than doubled up. Off to a good session. Question, do you call an all in bet with Top Top in this situation? I only had $12 personally invested in the pot. I was not locked in. I'd welcom comments.
