Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Switching Brain Gears
So on my last post, I talked about 2nd and 3rd level thinking at the poker table. There are probably professional authors that have written much more eloquently about this subject, but this is my version - with one example.1st level thinking is when you look at your cards and decide how you would like to play them. For example, you are in middle position, action is folded to you, you look down and see an Ac-Jc. You like your hand. Conditions look favorable for a raise, so you decide to fire in a standard raise. This is a good example of 1st level thinking. You are considering your cards and how you’d like to play them. You are not too worried about what other people think at this point.
2nd level thinking is when you attempt to determine what your opponent is thinking about his hand and how he wants to play it. In my last post, I listed a hand where I thought I was using some 2nd level thinking. This is more than just “putting a player on a hand”. This involves trying to understand what your opponent is thinking about his hand and how he might play his and. In other words, 2nd level thinking is trying to predict your opponent’s 1st level thinking. Of course, you’ll need to assign a hand (or range of hands) to your opponent to accomplish this, but you’ll need to go one more step and try to forecast his thoughts about his hand and how he might play his hand.
3rd level thinking is a little more complex. 3rd level thinking is involved when you try to figure out what your opponent is thinking about your hand. I think this 3rd level thinking goes beyond simple betting patterns. For example, if I check a monster hand (full house) hoping my opponent will bet so that I can check raise him, I really haven’t engaged in 3rd level thinking. Instead, I’m just trying to trick him into a trap. I’m hoping that he’ll fall for my trap. 3rd level thinking, in my opinion, is a deep, thoughtful consideration of the types of things an opponent must be thinking about the quality of my hand and the meaning of my play. I have an example:
Example: It’s the late stages of the 30 person re-buy NLHE tournament. There are about 7 players left. Play is very tight. We have about 4 players guarding short stacks determined to make the money. The blinds are coming around relentlessly. The stress is high. I’m in middle position and find a JcTc. I make a standard 3x raise. I figured that play was pretty tight and I stood a reasonable chance of winning the blinds, plus my hand was not too terrible. The fact that I was in middle position might have made my raise seem even a little stronger. It’s folded around to the small blind/chip leader who calls. Big blind bows out. The flop comes 9c – 7x – 4c. This is a very good flop for me. I have 2 overs, a flush draw and a gut shot. BINGO! Small blind checks.
Here’s where the 3rd level thinking kicks in. Standard play would be for me to semi-bluff with a big drawing hand. But as I start to really think about it, I begin to see that if I semi bluff here, there’s a good chance my opponent (a very “aware” and perceptive player) would pick up on this and might find this as an opportunity to make a play on me here (with a big check raise) or try to make a play on me on the turn when a blank hits. He’s the chip leader and can afford to get saucey. I’m really trying to predict what my opponent might think about the hand I hold if I fire in a continuation bet here.
So, I figure I can take my free card here and really disguise my flush draw with a check. So I check. The turn is admittedly a thing of beauty – the Qc. I now have a made flush (with 2 outs to a straight flush!), the flush is well disguised, and the queen may have improve my opponents hand. BINGO! (As a side note, poker is really easy when you catch perfect cards). He checks.
As I begin to ponder my next action, I start to consider what he must think about my hand. If check the flop and bet turn, he has got to consider this turn bet is a semi bluff. I think there is a good chance he’ll give me credit for a J-10 (open ended) or even a hand like Ac X (nut flush draw). Now the challenge for me is to size my bet to make it stink to high-heaven like a semi bluff. I only bet 1/3rd. I think I wanted to really sell weakness here. It worked. He called.
The river is a thing of beauty - a complete blank. He checks. I’m pretty sure he caught some piece of this board by his turn check-call. If he is on a busted draw, then anything I bet will not get called; however, if he has a Q, 9, 7, or 4, I can probably get some value with a river bet. Once again, I really try to get into this guy’s mind and predict what he is thinking about my hand. I convince myself that he must think there is a good chance that I’m on a busted draw. Now, my challenge is to find a bet and a rhythm that will convince him that I have a busted draw.
I’m not much of an actor, so I don’t really like sending false, weak tells. Instead, I just paused a little longer than normal before I bet 5000 (into a 10,000 pot). He considers the situation for a few seconds and calls. I immediately show the flush (which by the way, was my only 5 card hand I was dealt after 6 ½ hours of play that night – what are the odds of that?)
Anyway, this is my best example of 3rd level thinking. I’m sure good players do this all the time. Not me. This is my first memory of applying this level of analysis and deep thought during the actual play of a hand. Pretty cool!
As it turns out, I was pretty darn accurate in my analysis (read here).
