Monday, November 27, 2006
Thanksgiving is MY holiday
Great Thanksgiving weekend!
I’ve long held that Thanksgiving is the best of all the American Holidays. It’s the food, it’s the football, it’s the 4 days off from work, it’s the changing of the seasons. All that crap. Christmas may be the holiday for the kids, but Thanksgiving is my holiday. This Thanksgiving was particularly good. The weather was incredible….among other things.
Wednesday – Poker at friend’s house. Lost $56 playing limit mixed games. I’ve noticed that I have a real hard time concentrating at poker after a long day at work. I was mis-reading my hands, mis-reading the board, and missing bets all night. Plus, I was card dead. I was actually lucky to escape just down $56. It was nice to chill in a low stress poker game with some buddies though. I did violate one of my own golden rules. I played some stupid game (Red/Black) not understanding the rules, the strategy, etc…I’m such a fish. All in all, I didn’t mind the loss though.
One hand came up that deserves a quick mention. The game was stud 8. The game was 6 handed. I started with a 3 card low but found myself heads-up with the table manic on 4th street. He brought it in originally. I caught good on 4th street and so did the manic. I bet, he raised. I called. We both caught bricks on 5th. He bet, I called. This was not unusual. This player would bet/raise with made hands, suspect hands, and trash hands in almost exactly the same fashion. 6th street goes brick to him and brick to me (I pair a hole card deuce) but my board now looks like a made low. The betting goes check-check. The river is a brick for me. I have no low and only a pair of deuces for low. He checks. I figure the only way to win is a river bluff into a nice pot. The pot has about 6 big bets. My $4 river bluff has to work about 1 times in 6 to break even. So I give it a go. I get called. Manic show a pair of 3’s, no low, to scoop. I was a bit disgusted. So I asked, “you called with a pair of 3’s”? He defended himself with, “yea, that’s a pretty standard play in Stud 8. Really! It’s pretty standard.”
So I got to thinking. This may be a pretty "standard" play for the Manic, but is it the correct play? If I dealt 7 random cards to 2 players, a pair of threes figures to be the high hand about 24% of the time (simulated here) . When this pair of 3s is the best hand, manic can expect to recover half of the pot when he is staring at my low board. So the $4 “standard play” call on the river will expect to win half of the pot about 24% of the time. This means for this play to be profitable, the pot would need to have about 9 bets in the pot. I don’t see how this is the correct play. Agree/no?
Thursday – Great weather. Great food. No stress! Lion’s lost…again. Who cares?
Friday – Great weather. Got the Christmas lights up. They look good. Got the leaves and dog poop picked up. The Cornhuskers win! Now, they play the evil Sooners in the Big 12 championship game next Saturday. When they win, they get a BCS bid and a possible post season showdown with the even more evil Michigan Wolverines. Back-to-back post season whoopings of the Wolverines would put a complete end to any ’97 National Championship controversy – although last year pretty much closed that chapter.
Saturday – Great weather. Got the house cleaned and laundry done. Won a H.O.R.S.E. SnG on FullTilt. Played some poker at a friend’s house. This is an annual pot-luck dinner and rebuy tournament. It’s a lot of fun. I did OK. I cashed for a tidy $170 profit after 6 hours of work. I had three observations from the night.
First, I really like cashing in a long, hard fought tournaments. I don’t really mind loosing early in a long tournament, but I despise, absolutely despise, going deep into a long tournament and not cashing. I dislike the last scenario (going deep without cashing) so much that I’d just prefer not to play tournaments at all. I’d be perfectly happy to just sit at the cash game for 8 hours. But these home games usually start with the tournament and cash games start up a few hours later. Having said that, it does really feel good to do well in a tourney. It’s probably more the feeling of beating most of the field than the actual cash prize. I was really disappointed in a few of my plays and the fact that I couldn’t get a little deeper.
Second, I think most of the players have totally perverted the proper rebuy strategy. Everyone pretty much knows that proper rebuy strategy is build your stack and be prepared to rebuy if necessary… several times….maybe even 7 times. Sometimes you need to push small edges or make difficult calls. But, the key is to build your stack….not donk off your chips. One key hand illustrates this.
At the second level, $25/$50, play has been crazy. Our table probably had 8 rebuys and numerous all-ins. Anytime you entered a pot, you must be prepared for the all-in push. I’m in middle position with about $1500, with A7s. I make it $200. I’m playing looser than ‘freezout’ but much tighter than most. It’s folded around to a late position player who is not real good. He’s had to rebuy about 4 times. He will push with any 2 face cards. He has about $700 left and he pushes. An early position limper (the maniac from the story above) who has about $4500 decides to call. Action back to me. With the pot re-opened for betting, I push in my last $800. This decision on my part is probably bad (one of several bad decisions for the night), but not important to this story. The EP limper/caller/maniac, calls my all in for another 800. We flip our cards. My decision now looks a little better. I hold the best hand (me A7s vs. bad player KJo vs. maniac 42s) with a good chance to nearly triple up. At this point, the maniac mentions to the table that he really likes his hand. That he “had to call”.
Let’s take a look. The maniacs 42s vs. 2 random top 20% hands figures to win 24% of the time (simulated on PokerStove). He’s getting 900:700 on his initial call (1.3 to 1) when he is a 3:1 underdog. Ouch! Then, when I bump it another 800, he is getting 3:1 on his call while still being a 3:1 underdog - not too bad. As it turns out, manic wins it and I’m in line at the rebuy counter. But, I think he made a horrible decision. He had successfully built up his stack to be in a good position after the rebuy period. He was exactly where he needed to be at that point. Then he ended up putting a third of his chips at risk being a big underdog.
On the flip side, he was now in really good position for the rest of the tournament. (Fast forward…He just needed to shift gears a little after the rebuy period. He didn’t.) Anyway, I guess the point is that I saw an awful lot of play during the rebuy period that seemed more like it people hoping to hit the lottery than strategically trying to build their chip stack. Chris E and Hespy were the exceptions (BTW. They finished first/second for the night). Maybe the best rebuy strategy in this type of environment is to play your top 10 hands only and hope to get paid off – you know, swim upstream.
Third, this may be the first time I’ve played, for an extended period using "level 2" thinking and even flirted a little with with "level 3" thinking. Level 2 thinking is where you, as a player, attempt to get into the mind of an opponent and figure out what they are thinking about their hand and their next play. One hand illustrates this.
It’s after the rebuy period. I had just busted a player for about $2000 and had a nice sized stack, but there were several really big stacks at the table. One big stack was to my left. Action was folded to me on the button. I looked down and found AQo. I really considered limping and disguising this pretty strong holding. But I got to thinking. If I raise, what will Mr. Big Stack to my left think. He will surely think this is a steal. He has been pretty quiet so far. He may see this as an opportunity to make an early position re-steal play if the flop comes ragged or if it hits him. This early position re-steal is a play that is definately in his arsenal. So I raise. He gives it careful consideration, and then, as expected, he smooth calls.
Man, I have this guy right where I want him. I know the play he is going to make before he makes it. “Watch this, “I say to myself, “If the flop does not contain an A, K, Q, or J, he’ll lead out for about 1/3 of the pot.” The flop comes rags. It has a 6-2-2.
Like predicted, Mr. Big stack opens for a 1/3 sized pot bet. Man, I’m good. I’m not only thinking about my hand. I’m completely in the mind of Mr. Big Stack. I know exactly what he’s thinking. I think I’ll go ahead and ruin his world right now. I’ll triple his opening bet, blow him off the hand, and stack his chips in front of me. So, I triple his bet.
Mr. Big thinks for a short while and re-raises (2.5x) my bet. He has now put about two thirds to three quarters of his chips in play. Now, I’m confused. Here’s what I’m thinking. I’ve seen this bet, raise, reraise pattern on TV with 2 seasoned pros - both of who are holding sqaudouce. I’m pretty sure that both Hespy and I both have nothing but my nothing is better than his nothing. I would be a complete genius if I pushed or called here. I’m feeling so in sync with this player. I’m locked in. But, the other side of my brain is going “it so early in the tournament”, “why get all in with such a bad hand, find a better spot”, “I wonder if the cash game will be live tonight”, “why did he leave money behind if he’s bluffing”, “sometimes players will leave a little behind to make their bluffs seem even stronger – and Hespy is the kind of guy that would do this.”
In the end, I can’t continue. I can’t muster the gonads to follow through. I fold. Live to fight another day. Something like that. Hespy claims he held a 6 for top pair. I don’t believe him. He just made a stronger play than me. Hats Off!.Anyway, I was feeling kind of good about myself for being able to play poker at what I thought was that “next level” - level 2 thinking.
I've got one example of "level 3" thinking that I'll post next time.
Cheers. Happy Turkey Day!
