Sunday, December 10, 2006
Sklansky on NL and 2nd order thinking
A few posts ago, I described my understanding of 2nd and 3rd order thinking in poker (link). I mentioned that there are probably poker authors out there that describe this topic much more accurately and vividly.
Well, I just got to the chapter "multiple level thinking" of this excellent book by Sklansky & Miller. I was right. They spend about 8 pages describing this topic in pretty good detail.
BTW, this is an excellent book. There are a few chapters that after you read them you just have to ask, "what the hell is this guy talking about?" Then, there are other chapters, where you just have to go, "My God, how have I been playing NL without this?"
One of the most 'illuminating' concepts for me can be found summarized on page 124 and reads, "In deep stack no limit, preflop hands derive most of their value from how well they extract money after the flop from your opponents. Comparing hands based on how often they win a showdown or on thier poker 'hand rank' is worse than worthless"
Now that I think about it, it makes perfect sense. When I play real deep stack NL online (blinds .25/.50 and I buy in for $50 bucks), I like to call preflop raises with pretty marginal hands (i.e., J8 suited) in position, because if I hit just right, I can stack a player holding a premium hand like KK. I've noticed this in live action as well.
If the game seems particularly loose (like at the Vankeno Casino), I tend to tighten up and just play premium hands. I've noticed that certain players always seem to call my preflop raises with margial hands when they have position on me. Now that I think about it, this is a form of free-rolling. There is a chance that they'll get my whole stack if they flop just right, but there is no chance that I'll stack them.
The key for this strategy is that you must be playing deep stack NL. If you are only at 30x to 50x the big blind (i.e. $1/$2 blinds with only $60 - $100 stack sizes), the risk of calling a preflop raises with a marginal hand is not really worth the reward.
For example, say you are playing $1/$2 NL with $80. A tight/agressive opponent with $80 opens for a raise preflop to $10. It's folded to you on the button and you hold J8s. I don't think you can call here. When you combine the probability of out flopping him with the probabilility of stacking him if you outflop/turn him, you are a real long shot. Let's just say you are 3:1 on both. This makes you a 9:1 dog to stack your opponent. If you call a $10 preflop bet, you can only make 8:1 if your long shot comes through. You need a much better overlay than this to call.
On the other hand, if you are playing $1/$2 NL with $280. A tight/agressive opponent with $280 opens for a raise preflop to $10. It's folded to you on the button and you hold J8s. You might call here. When you combine the probability of out flopping him with the probabilility of stacking him if you outflop/turn him, you might still be a 9:1 dog to stack your opponent but now your $10 preflop call might be getting 28:1 if it comes through. You're a 9:1 dog to make 28:1. Not too bad.
Comments?
