Monday, January 29, 2007
Crazy Carl's Omaha Extravaganza
So, we were playing a poker game this Saturday night that seems to be gaining some popularity. The game is H2O (two rounds of No Limit Hold’em followed by one round of Pot Limit Omaha). I lost $175 smackers (boooooo!).
But as I think about the game a little, one thing I noticed is that the rounds of Omaha seem to influence the rounds of Hold’em. That is, I noticed that there were a ton of limpers during the NLHE rounds and there was less aggressive raise/re-raise action preflop. This was not at all like most of the straight NLHE games that I’ve played in. I think the action during the NLHE rounds was infected somewhat with the style of play that is best suited for the PLO rounds. Ok, maybe this is just my imagination.
Omaha is a funny game. Is there any way that after flopping the nuts and betting out, you would actually fold to a bunch of raises? It’s tough. I think there may be some situations where it is correct to fold the nuts.
I had a hand come up this last Saturday that almost fit that description, …. but not quite.
If memory serves me, I think the pot was raised preflop and 3 of us saw the flop for $4 each. That would put $12 in the pot. The flop comes 3c-4c-7x. This would make anyone holding a 5x-6x the nuts. I look down and find myself holding these cards. Yipee!
Hespy is first to act and checks. Carl is second to act and bets $7 (?). I’m next to act. I don’t like the 2 clubs on the board, so I raise to $21. Hespy smooth calls $21. Carl raises back to $50.
Ok, let me check my hole cards again. Yes, I do have a 5 and a 6. Ok. Let me check the board. Yes, it does read 3c-4c-7x. Ok, let me do a quick sequence check. 3-4-5-6-7. Yup, that’s 5 cards, in sequence. I do have a straight and it is the best possible. Now, let me check my other cards.
Carl is almost surely raising with a 5-6 as well. Right? I mean c’mon. The guy has not been playing Omaha that long. He’s a pretty tight player. He’s not raising with a draw. How could he?
If there is a poker God in the sky, I’ll have a club redraw and can put all of my money in here and be free rolling Carl holding the current nuts but also a hand that can improve to a flush.
Holy Crap! There is a God. I find 2 beautiful clubs in my hand. So I put all of my money in the pot ($145 total).
I’m not sure why, but Hespy calls (I don’t remember his cards – I don’t think he ever showed). Carl calls and we all table our hands.
Can you believe it? I’m behind. Carl is Holding top set with the nut flush redraw.
Cards that will promote his hand include any club (9), the case seven (1), any three (3), any four (3), and any match of the turn card (2). He has 18 outs to the nuts.
Carl is a 60% favorite to nearly triple up. Nice play crazy Carl. Why didn't you just smooth call my bet on the flop? That way I could have folded when the club hit on the turn and only lost $25 bucks?
Carl drags what must have been a $350 pot.
I’m starting to become a real fan of this Omaha game.
Friday, January 26, 2007
Let's Chop It Some More
THE CHOP
So as the tournament got down to 3 handed, players started negotiating a chop. After an agreement was reached, Ryno was overheard getting scolded by his entourage for making a bad deal. He defended himself, “hey man, I’ve never really been in this situation before”.
That’s understandable. I’m not sure any of us really have enough experience at working out these types of deals to be considered “skilled”. The last thing you want to have happen, after you plow through 95% of the field, is to make a bad deal and give up more prize equity than you should. This isn’t one of those situations where you just try to figure it out “in the moment” – to “wing it” I think you’d be much better served to give this complex topic a little thought before hand….you know, be prepared!
As I started doing a little research on this topic (gambling forums and web sites), I found this is a pretty complex topic. I’ve not really found anyone that solves this problem accurately or effectively. An accurate solution is one that produces a mathematically precise answer. An effective solution is one that anyone can use, in the moment, while sitting around a pile of chips after a long poker tournament – and one that you can convince others is “fair”.
THE SET UP:
At the end of the NLHE tournament, we had this situations:
Chip leader, Dave S., has 71K in chips. Short stack, Dangeruss, has 17K in chips. In the middle, Ryno has 34K in chips. Prizes (1rst $675, 2nd $425, 3rd 250).
Approaches to the Chop:
There are probably 2 main ways (with a few derivatives each) that people make chop deals.
Approach 1: Get What You Can
The first way is a strict “get what you can” approach. In this approach, someone just suggests that they should get a certain amount. Everyone follows this same approach until a deal is reached. In the scenario laid out above, Dave may just pick a number, say $600 and propose, “since I have most of the chips, I’ll settle for $600”. This approach is not all that scientific, but it sure is easy to administer. Of course the problem with this approach is that you can quite easily end up giving away more equity than you should. The advantage of this approach goes to the master negotiator who can take advantage of lesser skilled negotiators.
Approach 2: The Straight Line Distribution
Another, slightly more methodical approach is called a “straight distribution”. To determine how much you are “due”, you follow these 4 simple steps. Most of this math can be done in your head, but you should probably ask the tournament director/host for a calculator or pen/paper.
1. Add all of the prize money up. From the example above, you have $675 + 425 + 250 = $1350.
2. Since all players are guaranteed at least the last place prize money, take that amount times the number of players and subtract from step #1. This amount is known as the “remainder”. Using the example above, the last place pays $250 multiplied by 3 players = $750 subtracted from $1350 from step #1 above will leave $600 that is the “remainder”. This is the amount that the remaining player will be negotiating for.
3. Determine your chip proportion. To do this, have everyone count their chips and then total them. Then, divide your chip count by the total. From the example above, there were 121,600 chips in play, Dave had 59%, Ryno had 28%, and Russ had 14%. This amount represents your “claim” to the remaining prize money. The more chips you have, the larger your claim.
4. Finally, multiply your claim (Step #3) to the remainder (step #2) and add your guarantee amount (last prize). This is your ‘targeted’ payout that you negotiate for.
The following table shows how this deal would look for our example. It looks like these guys worked out a deal that was real close to ‘straight distribution’ deal. Not too bad…right?
Here’s the problem. This methodology doesn’t really work for more than 2 players and is biased unfairly to the short stack (sorry Russ) and overly generous to the big stack (Nice work Dave). The methodology really starts to break down when there are big difference in chip stack sizes. You can even find situations where this method would calculate a payout target for the chip leader that is higher than the top prize…this makes no sense. You should read the article in Card Player on this subject. http://www.cardplayer.com/author/article/all/14/3986
Below is a graph of the payout targets when only 2 people are chopping using a Straight Distribution method. In this example, if you had 70% of the chips and there was 2 prizes left ($1000, $400), you would expect to chop for a little over $800.
Below is a graph of the payout targets when 3 people are chopping. As you move up the scale for the chip leader towards 80%, your targeted payout actually exceeds the “ceiling” amount that you can claim (the top prize). This is clearly an indication that the slope of the line is too sharp.
A new approach: Burns Landrum
This approach attempts to correct for the errors using the straight distribution method. The Burn Landrum model though has the disadvantage of being too complex for most players to conceptualize in their head. There is no way to do a sort of 'sense check'. You almost need the tournament host to offer a spreadsheet calculator using this formula to determine your targeted payout. Too complex! In addition, this model give too much equity to the short stacks. In extreme cases (when the short stack has only a couple of chips left), this model would still suggest that that player is due substantially more than the bottom prize. Using the data from our actual tournament, the Burns Landrum model would have allocated only $537 to the chip leader (Dave) as opposed to the $600 he actually recieved. Conversely, it would allocate $385 to Russ instead of the $350 that he actually took.
So as the tournament got down to 3 handed, players started negotiating a chop. After an agreement was reached, Ryno was overheard getting scolded by his entourage for making a bad deal. He defended himself, “hey man, I’ve never really been in this situation before”.
That’s understandable. I’m not sure any of us really have enough experience at working out these types of deals to be considered “skilled”. The last thing you want to have happen, after you plow through 95% of the field, is to make a bad deal and give up more prize equity than you should. This isn’t one of those situations where you just try to figure it out “in the moment” – to “wing it” I think you’d be much better served to give this complex topic a little thought before hand….you know, be prepared!
As I started doing a little research on this topic (gambling forums and web sites), I found this is a pretty complex topic. I’ve not really found anyone that solves this problem accurately or effectively. An accurate solution is one that produces a mathematically precise answer. An effective solution is one that anyone can use, in the moment, while sitting around a pile of chips after a long poker tournament – and one that you can convince others is “fair”.
THE SET UP:
At the end of the NLHE tournament, we had this situations:
Chip leader, Dave S., has 71K in chips. Short stack, Dangeruss, has 17K in chips. In the middle, Ryno has 34K in chips. Prizes (1rst $675, 2nd $425, 3rd 250).
Approaches to the Chop:
There are probably 2 main ways (with a few derivatives each) that people make chop deals.
Approach 1: Get What You Can
The first way is a strict “get what you can” approach. In this approach, someone just suggests that they should get a certain amount. Everyone follows this same approach until a deal is reached. In the scenario laid out above, Dave may just pick a number, say $600 and propose, “since I have most of the chips, I’ll settle for $600”. This approach is not all that scientific, but it sure is easy to administer. Of course the problem with this approach is that you can quite easily end up giving away more equity than you should. The advantage of this approach goes to the master negotiator who can take advantage of lesser skilled negotiators.
Approach 2: The Straight Line Distribution
Another, slightly more methodical approach is called a “straight distribution”. To determine how much you are “due”, you follow these 4 simple steps. Most of this math can be done in your head, but you should probably ask the tournament director/host for a calculator or pen/paper.
1. Add all of the prize money up. From the example above, you have $675 + 425 + 250 = $1350.
2. Since all players are guaranteed at least the last place prize money, take that amount times the number of players and subtract from step #1. This amount is known as the “remainder”. Using the example above, the last place pays $250 multiplied by 3 players = $750 subtracted from $1350 from step #1 above will leave $600 that is the “remainder”. This is the amount that the remaining player will be negotiating for.
3. Determine your chip proportion. To do this, have everyone count their chips and then total them. Then, divide your chip count by the total. From the example above, there were 121,600 chips in play, Dave had 59%, Ryno had 28%, and Russ had 14%. This amount represents your “claim” to the remaining prize money. The more chips you have, the larger your claim.
4. Finally, multiply your claim (Step #3) to the remainder (step #2) and add your guarantee amount (last prize). This is your ‘targeted’ payout that you negotiate for.
The following table shows how this deal would look for our example. It looks like these guys worked out a deal that was real close to ‘straight distribution’ deal. Not too bad…right?
Here’s the problem. This methodology doesn’t really work for more than 2 players and is biased unfairly to the short stack (sorry Russ) and overly generous to the big stack (Nice work Dave). The methodology really starts to break down when there are big difference in chip stack sizes. You can even find situations where this method would calculate a payout target for the chip leader that is higher than the top prize…this makes no sense. You should read the article in Card Player on this subject. http://www.cardplayer.com/author/article/all/14/3986
Below is a graph of the payout targets when only 2 people are chopping using a Straight Distribution method. In this example, if you had 70% of the chips and there was 2 prizes left ($1000, $400), you would expect to chop for a little over $800.
Below is a graph of the payout targets when 3 people are chopping. As you move up the scale for the chip leader towards 80%, your targeted payout actually exceeds the “ceiling” amount that you can claim (the top prize). This is clearly an indication that the slope of the line is too sharp.
A new approach: Burns Landrum
This approach attempts to correct for the errors using the straight distribution method. The Burn Landrum model though has the disadvantage of being too complex for most players to conceptualize in their head. There is no way to do a sort of 'sense check'. You almost need the tournament host to offer a spreadsheet calculator using this formula to determine your targeted payout. Too complex! In addition, this model give too much equity to the short stacks. In extreme cases (when the short stack has only a couple of chips left), this model would still suggest that that player is due substantially more than the bottom prize. Using the data from our actual tournament, the Burns Landrum model would have allocated only $537 to the chip leader (Dave) as opposed to the $600 he actually recieved. Conversely, it would allocate $385 to Russ instead of the $350 that he actually took.
So this model doesn't really work either since it is too complex and is too biased towards the short stack.
So Now What?
I think we might actually be able to come up with a solution. If we combine the best features of the straightline method with the best features of the Burns Landrum and then turn it into a very simple graphical model, it might just provide players an accurate and effective way to determine their "chop equity" at then end of a long tournament.
Next post....
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Let's just chop
So, this weekend provided mixed results at the poker table. An interesting situation came up as well that I’d like to discuss – the “CHOP”.
Misses
(1) This is my 3rd poker session for January which is slightly higher than my stated objective of only playing 2.5 times per month.
(2) I was the first one eliminated in a $50 freezout, NLHE tournament that I hosted. We had 35 entrants. I was really looking forward to doing well this time. I had my strategy all mapped out, but alas, it was not meant to be. My first mistake was making a smallish value bet on the river when I held the nuts and was absolutely dead certain my opponent held AA and would call a much larger bet – missed opportunity. My second mistake was giving this same guy his chips back when I turned a low straight but he was holding a flush from the get.
At that point I was down to 1700 in chips (from 3200 starting chips). I was still in pretty good shape with the blinds at only 50/100 when I found myself holding AQo. After 2 limpers, I raise to 400. Its folded around to the original limper who puts me all in. My read was that this player probably limped with a small pair hoping to get in cheap. He may also hold a hand like A10s or A6s. I, for sure, did not give this player credit for a big pocket pair or a better Ace (AK). So, with $2050 in the pot and being laid a price of 2:1 combined with my estimate that I was about 50% to have this guy dominated or 50% to be in a coin flip situation, I made the easy call. Much to my delight, my opponent held A8 and was a 3:1 dog. But….you can probably guess the rest of the story. Yada yada yada, I’m on the rail!
When I think about, there are only about 6 desirable outcomes in this type of tournament. 1st, you could win the whole thing and make ton of cash and let your ego swell. 2nd, you can get second place and score a pretty good payday. 3rd, you can finish third and make slightly more than you could expect to make had you just played at the cash game all night. 4th, you can eliminate Scott Smith by laying a completely sick bad beat on him and then cackle something like “I just had a feeling my 74o was going to connect and crack your 2 aces. Giggle. Giggle”. 5th you can freeroll in the tournament by winning some prop bets like the first out or last longer bet. Finally, you can be eliminated as the very first person. That way you invest as little time as possible and still make as much money as the other 29 players who did not cash. So I was happy to have accomplished one of the 6 most desirable outcomes possible.
Makes
I won $166 at the cash game. Who Hoo! We played dealers choice round-by-round, $100 max buy in. Player could choose No Limit, Pot Limit, or Limit and any game from HORSE. I won my money be hitting some big hands and I lost most of it by being outplayed. That really sucks.
The Chop
So as the tournament got down to 3 handed, players started negotiating a chop. After an agreement was reached, Ryno was overheard getting scolded by his entourage for making a bad deal. He defended himself, “hey man, I’ve never really been in this situation before”.
That’s understandable. I’m not sure any of us really have enough experience at working out these types of deals to be considered “skilled”. The last thing you want to have happen, after you plow through 95% of the field, is to make a bad deal and give up more prize equity than you should. This isn’t one of those situations where you just try to figure it out “in the moment” – to “wing it” I think you’d be much better served to give this complex topic a little thought before hand….you know, be prepared!
As I started doing a little research on this topic (gambling forums and web sites), I found this is a very complex topic. I’ve not really found anyone that solves this problem accurately and effectively. An accurate solution is one that produces a mathematically precise answer. An effective solution is one that anyone can use, in the moment, while sitting around a pile of chips after a long poker tournament – and one that you can convince others is “fair”.
I think I’ll save the meat of this discussion for the next post.
Misses
(1) This is my 3rd poker session for January which is slightly higher than my stated objective of only playing 2.5 times per month.
(2) I was the first one eliminated in a $50 freezout, NLHE tournament that I hosted. We had 35 entrants. I was really looking forward to doing well this time. I had my strategy all mapped out, but alas, it was not meant to be. My first mistake was making a smallish value bet on the river when I held the nuts and was absolutely dead certain my opponent held AA and would call a much larger bet – missed opportunity. My second mistake was giving this same guy his chips back when I turned a low straight but he was holding a flush from the get.
At that point I was down to 1700 in chips (from 3200 starting chips). I was still in pretty good shape with the blinds at only 50/100 when I found myself holding AQo. After 2 limpers, I raise to 400. Its folded around to the original limper who puts me all in. My read was that this player probably limped with a small pair hoping to get in cheap. He may also hold a hand like A10s or A6s. I, for sure, did not give this player credit for a big pocket pair or a better Ace (AK). So, with $2050 in the pot and being laid a price of 2:1 combined with my estimate that I was about 50% to have this guy dominated or 50% to be in a coin flip situation, I made the easy call. Much to my delight, my opponent held A8 and was a 3:1 dog. But….you can probably guess the rest of the story. Yada yada yada, I’m on the rail!
When I think about, there are only about 6 desirable outcomes in this type of tournament. 1st, you could win the whole thing and make ton of cash and let your ego swell. 2nd, you can get second place and score a pretty good payday. 3rd, you can finish third and make slightly more than you could expect to make had you just played at the cash game all night. 4th, you can eliminate Scott Smith by laying a completely sick bad beat on him and then cackle something like “I just had a feeling my 74o was going to connect and crack your 2 aces. Giggle. Giggle”. 5th you can freeroll in the tournament by winning some prop bets like the first out or last longer bet. Finally, you can be eliminated as the very first person. That way you invest as little time as possible and still make as much money as the other 29 players who did not cash. So I was happy to have accomplished one of the 6 most desirable outcomes possible.
Makes
I won $166 at the cash game. Who Hoo! We played dealers choice round-by-round, $100 max buy in. Player could choose No Limit, Pot Limit, or Limit and any game from HORSE. I won my money be hitting some big hands and I lost most of it by being outplayed. That really sucks.
The Chop
So as the tournament got down to 3 handed, players started negotiating a chop. After an agreement was reached, Ryno was overheard getting scolded by his entourage for making a bad deal. He defended himself, “hey man, I’ve never really been in this situation before”.
That’s understandable. I’m not sure any of us really have enough experience at working out these types of deals to be considered “skilled”. The last thing you want to have happen, after you plow through 95% of the field, is to make a bad deal and give up more prize equity than you should. This isn’t one of those situations where you just try to figure it out “in the moment” – to “wing it” I think you’d be much better served to give this complex topic a little thought before hand….you know, be prepared!
As I started doing a little research on this topic (gambling forums and web sites), I found this is a very complex topic. I’ve not really found anyone that solves this problem accurately and effectively. An accurate solution is one that produces a mathematically precise answer. An effective solution is one that anyone can use, in the moment, while sitting around a pile of chips after a long poker tournament – and one that you can convince others is “fair”.
I think I’ll save the meat of this discussion for the next post.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Card Dead - You decide
So on my first visit to my new favorite card room, Motor City, I won $110. Whoo Hoo! This was simply amazing considering how card dead I was. I'll give you some of the gory details in a second.
After waiting around 45 minute to get a seat, I faced a tough dilemma.
They just opened a new table and called my name. I bought my chips placed them on the table. Just then a seat opened up at a table that had 3 of the regulars from my home games. I really wanted to chill with these guys and play some poker so I "locked up" this seat and went to retrieve my chips off of the other table. As I was loading up my chips, I looked around the table and noticed that this new table was populated with the geriatic crew. The bus must have just arrived from the nursing home. I was surprised they could fit 10 of us around the table with all of those oxyegen tanks and walkers.
OK, so that's a little mean spirited. No disrespect intended to the older players (of which I'm rapidly becoming). Anyway, I had to make one of those snap stereotype decisions. My previous learnings on the importance of seat selection was not lost. So, I chose to play with the senior citizens. It's been my experience that older players, in general, are pretty tight/predictable...and they just may forget the ranking of hands and think that 2 pair beats a flush.
Card Dead
So I started with a full buy in and went card dead. I didn't see a turn or river card for 2 hours. I know this since I started playing at exactly 12:30p and won my first pot at 2:30. I swear to god, I didn't have one hand that I could play post flop.
For the 3 hour session. I had 2 pocket pairs (7s and 10s). I had 1 AK and 1 AJ. That's it. That's the only premium starting hands I had in 3 hours. I had 4 premium hands in 3 hours.
So this got me to thinking. What are the odds of being dealt only 2 pocket pairs in 3 hours?
Here we go.
So there are 169 starting hand combinations in Hold'em (when you exclude suits). Everyone knows that...right? There are 13 different combinations of paired starting hands AA through 22 (once again ignoring suits). So 13 out of 169 starting hands include pairs. This means that you have about an 8% chance of being dealt a pocket pair on each deal. If skillful dealers at Motor City can cranks out 30 hands an hour and I played for 3 hours, I saw 90 hands.
So what are the odds that I would be dealt only 2 pocket pairs in 90 hands when I expect to be dealt 7 pocket pairs in 90 hands (8% x 90 hands)?
For this is used the handy dandy poisson disribution and found that to be 3.5%. Pretty slim hu?
Please let me know if I got this wrong.
After waiting around 45 minute to get a seat, I faced a tough dilemma.
They just opened a new table and called my name. I bought my chips placed them on the table. Just then a seat opened up at a table that had 3 of the regulars from my home games. I really wanted to chill with these guys and play some poker so I "locked up" this seat and went to retrieve my chips off of the other table. As I was loading up my chips, I looked around the table and noticed that this new table was populated with the geriatic crew. The bus must have just arrived from the nursing home. I was surprised they could fit 10 of us around the table with all of those oxyegen tanks and walkers.
OK, so that's a little mean spirited. No disrespect intended to the older players (of which I'm rapidly becoming). Anyway, I had to make one of those snap stereotype decisions. My previous learnings on the importance of seat selection was not lost. So, I chose to play with the senior citizens. It's been my experience that older players, in general, are pretty tight/predictable...and they just may forget the ranking of hands and think that 2 pair beats a flush.
Card Dead
So I started with a full buy in and went card dead. I didn't see a turn or river card for 2 hours. I know this since I started playing at exactly 12:30p and won my first pot at 2:30. I swear to god, I didn't have one hand that I could play post flop.
For the 3 hour session. I had 2 pocket pairs (7s and 10s). I had 1 AK and 1 AJ. That's it. That's the only premium starting hands I had in 3 hours. I had 4 premium hands in 3 hours.
So this got me to thinking. What are the odds of being dealt only 2 pocket pairs in 3 hours?
Here we go.
So there are 169 starting hand combinations in Hold'em (when you exclude suits). Everyone knows that...right? There are 13 different combinations of paired starting hands AA through 22 (once again ignoring suits). So 13 out of 169 starting hands include pairs. This means that you have about an 8% chance of being dealt a pocket pair on each deal. If skillful dealers at Motor City can cranks out 30 hands an hour and I played for 3 hours, I saw 90 hands.
So what are the odds that I would be dealt only 2 pocket pairs in 90 hands when I expect to be dealt 7 pocket pairs in 90 hands (8% x 90 hands)?
For this is used the handy dandy poisson disribution and found that to be 3.5%. Pretty slim hu?
Please let me know if I got this wrong.
New Man-holiday and Card Room Review
So I just discovered my new favorite local card room.
First, let me say that I think I there is a new man-holiday developing. Next to Father's day, MLK day may be the perfect man-holiday. The kids are in school. It's a January holiday so there's no expectation of travel. Its like the perfect storm coming together to develop a great day for relaxation.
This last Monday, MLK day, a bunch of guys from the poker group met up at Motor City Casino for a morning/afternoon of Poker. In looking back, this was almost the perfect way to spend the day. There was no guilt from missing family time. I was home by 4p. I took the kids to the gym later that night. I wasn't tired from staying out too late.
I'm going to do everything in my power to make this an annual event. Who's with me?
(By the way, what is the best way to refer to this poker group? I don't like saying poker "buddies". That's kind of mushy. We're not really in a poker "club". We don't have or want a stupid name like the "crew" or the "herd". I'm gonna give this one some deep thought.)
Poker Room Review:
Anyway onto the card room review for Motor City Casino . It's nice (say that using your best Borat impersonation).
First, the parking is free(no validation required). The entire 3rd floor of the casino where the card room is located is smoke free. Very nice! The room is pretty small, but their sign up process is pretty well organized. You can also call in ahead to get your name on a waiting list. They offer free self-serve drinks (no tokes needed) and free sandwiches. I like!
Now the best part. The no-limit game ($50-$200 buyin with $1/$2/$2 blinds) does not have a time charge. Instead, they rake up to $6 per pot. I don't know about you, but I absolutely hate the time charge. It's repugnant to me. I love the fact that they rake this game and don't charge time. This fact did not go unappreciated as I won only 4 pots in 3 hours - more on that on the next post.
This is, without a doubt, my new favorite local card room. When I'm enshrined in the Poker Hall of fame, they can list Motor City as my home casino.
First, let me say that I think I there is a new man-holiday developing. Next to Father's day, MLK day may be the perfect man-holiday. The kids are in school. It's a January holiday so there's no expectation of travel. Its like the perfect storm coming together to develop a great day for relaxation.
This last Monday, MLK day, a bunch of guys from the poker group met up at Motor City Casino for a morning/afternoon of Poker. In looking back, this was almost the perfect way to spend the day. There was no guilt from missing family time. I was home by 4p. I took the kids to the gym later that night. I wasn't tired from staying out too late.
I'm going to do everything in my power to make this an annual event. Who's with me?
(By the way, what is the best way to refer to this poker group? I don't like saying poker "buddies". That's kind of mushy. We're not really in a poker "club". We don't have or want a stupid name like the "crew" or the "herd". I'm gonna give this one some deep thought.)
Poker Room Review:
Anyway onto the card room review for Motor City Casino . It's nice (say that using your best Borat impersonation).
First, the parking is free(no validation required). The entire 3rd floor of the casino where the card room is located is smoke free. Very nice! The room is pretty small, but their sign up process is pretty well organized. You can also call in ahead to get your name on a waiting list. They offer free self-serve drinks (no tokes needed) and free sandwiches. I like!
Now the best part. The no-limit game ($50-$200 buyin with $1/$2/$2 blinds) does not have a time charge. Instead, they rake up to $6 per pot. I don't know about you, but I absolutely hate the time charge. It's repugnant to me. I love the fact that they rake this game and don't charge time. This fact did not go unappreciated as I won only 4 pots in 3 hours - more on that on the next post.
This is, without a doubt, my new favorite local card room. When I'm enshrined in the Poker Hall of fame, they can list Motor City as my home casino.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Long time between posts. I've been super busy at work and now my Dad has arrived for a visit. So, no poker this weekend. This is a good thing. I need to constantly work to keep that balance in my life: work<->family<->poker. This should be a good weekend. I'm adding a day of vacation to a 3 day weekend (MLK Holiday) for a nice 4 day weekend. I think we'll check out the auto show.
My last poker outing, the first of the year, was a train wreck. I lost $300. We played a cash game, $1/$1 blinds NLHE for 2 rounds followed by $1/$1 blinds PL Omaha for a round with a $100 max buy in. I'll adopt the name of this game given by a poker collegue of mine, the pizza critic - H2O.
If you read this blog, you are required to comment on the next 2 hands. I'll make it easy for you. It'll be multiple choice. I need to know, how would you have played these hands. C'mon. It'll be fun.
1rst hand. I have about $150 in front of me. I'm in middle position, playing hold'em. I have 2 aces. I raise the pot to $8. This was a little more than normal and probably gave my hand away a little. I get one caller - the small blind. The SB, Andrew, was up and down for the session at this point. He had gone up about $400 for a while and now he was back down to about $150.
This player was pretty wreckless. He would bet/raise with poor/no holdings. He really liked to take a lot of flops. Then, he'd have a hard time laying down a hand even with as little as 5 outs. But he was getting paid off on some big hands, plus he was really running hot. Dangerous player. Anyway the flop comes 10, 7, 7. SB checks, I bet $20 into an $18 pot. I'm check raised to $60.
What do you do here.
(a) call and let him bluff off all of his chips on the later streets
(b) fold, you are beat. This guy is not dumb enough to run a play at you in this spot.
(c) raise all in. You only get Aces once/twice a night. It's payday.
I muck. Andrew shows Q7s. Good laydown JJ.
Hand #2. I'm a little fuzzy on this one, but here's the replay to the best of my memory. The game is PLO. I'm holding 7x-7x-Ac-4c. In early position. As was the case in 90% of the PLO hands, the pot was raised to $5 preflop and there were 4 callers. The flop comes 6-5-5. BB bets $8, I call, 2 players behind fold. The turn is the 7 (6-5-5-7) giving me the overboat with 7s full on a board where someone might believe that their straight may somehow be good. It goes check, check. The river is a Q for a board of (6-5-5-7-Q). The SB leads out for $20.
Here's what I'm thinking. If he had the boat on the flop, he's beat. If he had three 5s on the flop and caught a queen on the river, he's beat. I decide to min raise to $40. Without hesitation, he re-raises to $90.
Now this player makes real solid decisions. I've played numerous hours with him and have never really seen him make a total boneheaded decsion, so I have to give this re-raise some serious respect. However, he's not real experienced at playing Omaha. On 2 times earlier in the session, he needed to be coached on reading his Omaha hands and the requirement to play 2 cards from his hand.
What do you do here.
(a) Push all your chips in. Go with your read. You are surely winning here.
(b) Fold. You are up against quads for sure.
(c) Call. Don't get crazy here. You don't have the nuts, so no re-raise.
I call. He shows quads. I'm completely taken off gaurd. I gave zero consideration to him holding quads. The only hand I was worried about was QQ for a rivered overboat.
Then, to make a bad night worse, I lost 2 out of 3 on $20 high count darts.....in my own house. This is pittiful. I should never loose in darts in my own house. I mean, this is my house, my house. No one comes into my house and beats me at darts. No one! This is my house,...bitch!
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Jon-o-matic Stats Factory
So I guess we are supposed to set some New Years Resolutions now. I don’t know. Resolutions seem like a lot of work. Then there’s the guilt that follows. I’ll pass on the resolutions.
I do have a couple of goals for 2007 though. I’d like to be much more effective in my Job. I’d like to accomplish some things around the house (Landscaping, build a basketball court outside, convert our formal dining room to a kid’s study, etc…). I’d like to take a family vacation. OK, pretty boring.
I should probably set some goals for poker too. Since poker is just a hobby, this might be taking it a little too far. But hey! Why not?
Before I can establish these poker goals, I guess I should analyze past results. Since I’ve dutifully logged each poker session of 2006 into a spreadsheet and I have buco training as an analyst, it’s now it’s time to run my poker stats through the “jon-o-matic” stats factory.
Here are some of the gory detailsI can see that I logged 69 sessions in 2006. Any analyst worth his salt knows that 69 is a lucky number for a lot of different reasons unrelated to poker. Since I occasionally logged more than one session on a particular day (i.e., I played in a tournament followed by a cash game), I had more sessions than days. As it turns out I played on 48 different days. This is the equivalent of 4 times per month. I also logged 219 hours of play plus 76 hours of play on 2 poker trips (Vegas and Foxwoods) for a total of 286 hours. This works out to 23.8 hours per month for Poker. Ouch! That’s a little higher than ideal.
Resolution #1. I’d like to play no more than 2.5 times per month in 2007.
Here’s where it gets a little interesting. My mean winnings per session was $52 with a standard deviation of $184. This mean is way too low and the standard deviation is way too high. This standard deviation is a function of some abnormally good sessions (>$500 winnings) and a couple of abnormally poor session (> $500 loss). Based on my winning and standard deviation, I figure I’ll need a bankroll of around $1000 to ride out similar swings that I might encounter this year. However, if I want to move my mean winning # up, I need to play at higher stakes. If I play at higher stakes, my standard deviation and bankroll requirement will go up as well. Plus, the competition will be more difficult. So, I’m stuck. I want to play less poker but make more money but still keep my bankroll down around $1000. This is no good. I need a new approach.
I can see that I played way more cash games than tournaments, but my hourly rate is higher in tournaments. Plus the standard deviation in tournaments is much lower. You either loose your smallish buyin (most of the time) or you score a big win infrequently. I think this might be the key. If I play more tournaments, I can keep my standard deviation low, and my earnings per hour would go up. But this is all based on the assumption that I can have decent results in tournament poker. I’m going to need to really work on my tournament play. Anyone got a copy of Harrington’s books….cheap?Ok. Resolution #2. I’d like to player a higher proportion (33% of the hours) of tournament poker in 2007 – including playing several higher buyin events (>$500).
That’s it. I’ll keep it short and sweet. Look out 2007.
