Thursday, January 04, 2007
Jon-o-matic Stats Factory
So I guess we are supposed to set some New Years Resolutions now. I don’t know. Resolutions seem like a lot of work. Then there’s the guilt that follows. I’ll pass on the resolutions.
I do have a couple of goals for 2007 though. I’d like to be much more effective in my Job. I’d like to accomplish some things around the house (Landscaping, build a basketball court outside, convert our formal dining room to a kid’s study, etc…). I’d like to take a family vacation. OK, pretty boring.
I should probably set some goals for poker too. Since poker is just a hobby, this might be taking it a little too far. But hey! Why not?
Before I can establish these poker goals, I guess I should analyze past results. Since I’ve dutifully logged each poker session of 2006 into a spreadsheet and I have buco training as an analyst, it’s now it’s time to run my poker stats through the “jon-o-matic” stats factory.
Here are some of the gory detailsI can see that I logged 69 sessions in 2006. Any analyst worth his salt knows that 69 is a lucky number for a lot of different reasons unrelated to poker. Since I occasionally logged more than one session on a particular day (i.e., I played in a tournament followed by a cash game), I had more sessions than days. As it turns out I played on 48 different days. This is the equivalent of 4 times per month. I also logged 219 hours of play plus 76 hours of play on 2 poker trips (Vegas and Foxwoods) for a total of 286 hours. This works out to 23.8 hours per month for Poker. Ouch! That’s a little higher than ideal.
Resolution #1. I’d like to play no more than 2.5 times per month in 2007.
Here’s where it gets a little interesting. My mean winnings per session was $52 with a standard deviation of $184. This mean is way too low and the standard deviation is way too high. This standard deviation is a function of some abnormally good sessions (>$500 winnings) and a couple of abnormally poor session (> $500 loss). Based on my winning and standard deviation, I figure I’ll need a bankroll of around $1000 to ride out similar swings that I might encounter this year. However, if I want to move my mean winning # up, I need to play at higher stakes. If I play at higher stakes, my standard deviation and bankroll requirement will go up as well. Plus, the competition will be more difficult. So, I’m stuck. I want to play less poker but make more money but still keep my bankroll down around $1000. This is no good. I need a new approach.
I can see that I played way more cash games than tournaments, but my hourly rate is higher in tournaments. Plus the standard deviation in tournaments is much lower. You either loose your smallish buyin (most of the time) or you score a big win infrequently. I think this might be the key. If I play more tournaments, I can keep my standard deviation low, and my earnings per hour would go up. But this is all based on the assumption that I can have decent results in tournament poker. I’m going to need to really work on my tournament play. Anyone got a copy of Harrington’s books….cheap?Ok. Resolution #2. I’d like to player a higher proportion (33% of the hours) of tournament poker in 2007 – including playing several higher buyin events (>$500).
That’s it. I’ll keep it short and sweet. Look out 2007.
