Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Back in the Saddle
So I climbed back in the poker saddle this last Friday. It’s been 4 weeks since I last played and I was starting to get the willies a little from not playing. Anyway, I got a little fix for my habit.
I had a good night. We played $1/$2 limit poker; mostly Hold’em, but with some rounds of other games mixed in ( Omaha hi/lo, Stud, Stud 8, and Pineapple).
I won $107. Woooo Hooo!. This was amazing considering we were playing low limit poker and I was playing with pretty good players. I have to attribute this winning session to catching good cards. I laid some pretty good beats on several of the players. You know what? I don’t really feel that bad about it either.
My favorite two beats included catching a 3 outer on the river in Hold'Em to lay a sick one on Brandon. Then, in a duece to seven hand I played, I threw away my made 9-7-5-4-2 on the 3rd draw after standing pat on the 2nd draw. I caught a perfect card a laid a sick one on Babcock. Then, I declared, "Uh, I've got a 7,5,4,3,2" and was admonished by the table for not recogonizing this hand as the ultimate nuts. In my defense, that was about the 10th hand of duece to seven triple draw that I've played in my life.
Anyway, I have 3 topics to discuss on this post.
First, Dennis Johnson, the long-time point guard for the Celtics died this last week. He was 52. I guess he just sort of dropped dead outside of a training facility for a NBA developmental league team that he was coaching. I don’t know about the rest of you, but 52 is way too young to die. I guess it must because I’m old enough that I can imagine the day in my not too distant future when I too will be 52. This story sort of hits ya. I guess I better play more poker while I still have some time left.
Second, imagine for a minute that you were going to make online poker your business – your primary source of income. How would you do it? What tools would you use? What strategies would you use? Do you need a business plan? Financing? Employees? Incentive plans? Tax strategies? Etc…
Anyway, I got a glimpse into the business of online poker the other night. It looks like these guys have already figured most of this stuff out. I was quite impressed.
Third, there was this real obnoxious French dude in seat 5. He spoke with broken English, walked with a gimp, and had an affinity for spider monkeys. He was pretending like he didn’t know too much about Omaha hi/lo, when he asked the table an interesting question. He asked, in a really irratating French accent, ‘zif I have de low only hand, zhould I be raising on every street or zhould I just be calling all de way?”
The table consensus (although not too enthusiastic) was that if you have a low only hand, you should probably just call all the way and not raise - after all, you might be getting quartered.
A few hands later, that philosophical position was put to the test. I don't remember the exact details so I'll embellish a little.
I was in the BB with 2-3-x-x. Four of us took a look at the flop of A-8-8. With the nut low draw, I thought I could take the pot right here with a semi bluff, so I led out. Brandon was second to act, he raises. Surprisingly, the 2 other players both call 2 bets cold. I call as well. The turn was a 4 making a board of Ax-8x-8x-4x. This gave me the nut low. I check, Brandon bets, it goes call, call, action to me. I call. There is now 8 big bets in the pot. The river was a meaningless K making the board Ax-8x-8x-4x-Kx. I check, Brandon leads out again, it goes call, call, action to me.
So, I followed the advice we had given to the French gimp a few hands ealier - I call. I showed down the nut low and split a pot with Brandon that had 12 big bets.
So I got to thinking, "What would have been the Expected Value from a raise on the river?" Let's do some math.
Situation 1 - I raise on the river and everyone calls. To figure out my EV, I'll need to estimate all of the possible outcomes. I assigned the following probabilities (0% that I scoop this pot, 75% that a take the low half, 25% that I get quartered). My EV then is (.75 x 1 extra bet x 3 player x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 1 extra bet x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 1.3125 bets. So I'd invest 1 extra bet and expect to make 1.3125 bets in return. This is a net of .3125 bets and a 31% return on investment. Not too shabby.
Situation 2 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets, action goes call/call to me, I cap it and it goes call, call, call. Now my EV is (.75 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 3.9375 bets. So I'd invest 3 extra bets and expect to make 3.9375 bets in return. This is a net of .9375 bets. Not too shabby. Limit poker is all about making that extra bet.
Situation 3 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets and knocks everyone out, action goes fold, fold to me. I call. Now my EV is (.75 x 2 extra bets x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 2 extra bets x 25% of the pot) = .875 bets. So I'd invest 2 extra bets and expect to make .875 bets in return. This is a net of -1.125 bets. Ouch!
The Bottom Line:
Now, if I assign the following probabilies for situations 1, 2, and 3 happening (situation 1 = 50%, situation 2 = 25%, situation 3 = 25%) my combined EV of raising on the river is ((.5 x.3125)+(.25*.9375)+(.25*-1.125)) or +0.11 bets
To Sum it All Up:
This is a pretty "thin" advantage to raising on the river with a low only hand in a 4 way pot. As you can imagine, this small advantage turns negative if the pot is only 3 handed or if your chance of getting quartered is increased (i.e., your playing at a tight table).
However, this advantage is much more positive if you have any chance of scooping. In essense, if the pot is 4 handed on the river, your raises/reraises with a low only hand is a sort of free-roll if you have a chance to scoop (i.e., bottom 2 pair).
For example, instead of the 0% probability of scooping I used in the above scenario, if I use the following probabilities (8% to scoop, 67% to take the low half only, 25% to take a quarter). The EV of raising/reraising on the river is goes way up to .3 bets.
It looks like raising with a low only hand when the pot is contested 4 handed on the river is a positive EV play....so raise it up...."MORE!"
I had a good night. We played $1/$2 limit poker; mostly Hold’em, but with some rounds of other games mixed in ( Omaha hi/lo, Stud, Stud 8, and Pineapple).
I won $107. Woooo Hooo!. This was amazing considering we were playing low limit poker and I was playing with pretty good players. I have to attribute this winning session to catching good cards. I laid some pretty good beats on several of the players. You know what? I don’t really feel that bad about it either.
My favorite two beats included catching a 3 outer on the river in Hold'Em to lay a sick one on Brandon. Then, in a duece to seven hand I played, I threw away my made 9-7-5-4-2 on the 3rd draw after standing pat on the 2nd draw. I caught a perfect card a laid a sick one on Babcock. Then, I declared, "Uh, I've got a 7,5,4,3,2" and was admonished by the table for not recogonizing this hand as the ultimate nuts. In my defense, that was about the 10th hand of duece to seven triple draw that I've played in my life.
Anyway, I have 3 topics to discuss on this post.
First, Dennis Johnson, the long-time point guard for the Celtics died this last week. He was 52. I guess he just sort of dropped dead outside of a training facility for a NBA developmental league team that he was coaching. I don’t know about the rest of you, but 52 is way too young to die. I guess it must because I’m old enough that I can imagine the day in my not too distant future when I too will be 52. This story sort of hits ya. I guess I better play more poker while I still have some time left.
Second, imagine for a minute that you were going to make online poker your business – your primary source of income. How would you do it? What tools would you use? What strategies would you use? Do you need a business plan? Financing? Employees? Incentive plans? Tax strategies? Etc…
Anyway, I got a glimpse into the business of online poker the other night. It looks like these guys have already figured most of this stuff out. I was quite impressed.
Third, there was this real obnoxious French dude in seat 5. He spoke with broken English, walked with a gimp, and had an affinity for spider monkeys. He was pretending like he didn’t know too much about Omaha hi/lo, when he asked the table an interesting question. He asked, in a really irratating French accent, ‘zif I have de low only hand, zhould I be raising on every street or zhould I just be calling all de way?”
The table consensus (although not too enthusiastic) was that if you have a low only hand, you should probably just call all the way and not raise - after all, you might be getting quartered.
A few hands later, that philosophical position was put to the test. I don't remember the exact details so I'll embellish a little.
I was in the BB with 2-3-x-x. Four of us took a look at the flop of A-8-8. With the nut low draw, I thought I could take the pot right here with a semi bluff, so I led out. Brandon was second to act, he raises. Surprisingly, the 2 other players both call 2 bets cold. I call as well. The turn was a 4 making a board of Ax-8x-8x-4x. This gave me the nut low. I check, Brandon bets, it goes call, call, action to me. I call. There is now 8 big bets in the pot. The river was a meaningless K making the board Ax-8x-8x-4x-Kx. I check, Brandon leads out again, it goes call, call, action to me.
So, I followed the advice we had given to the French gimp a few hands ealier - I call. I showed down the nut low and split a pot with Brandon that had 12 big bets.
So I got to thinking, "What would have been the Expected Value from a raise on the river?" Let's do some math.
Situation 1 - I raise on the river and everyone calls. To figure out my EV, I'll need to estimate all of the possible outcomes. I assigned the following probabilities (0% that I scoop this pot, 75% that a take the low half, 25% that I get quartered). My EV then is (.75 x 1 extra bet x 3 player x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 1 extra bet x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 1.3125 bets. So I'd invest 1 extra bet and expect to make 1.3125 bets in return. This is a net of .3125 bets and a 31% return on investment. Not too shabby.
Situation 2 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets, action goes call/call to me, I cap it and it goes call, call, call. Now my EV is (.75 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 3.9375 bets. So I'd invest 3 extra bets and expect to make 3.9375 bets in return. This is a net of .9375 bets. Not too shabby. Limit poker is all about making that extra bet.
Situation 3 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets and knocks everyone out, action goes fold, fold to me. I call. Now my EV is (.75 x 2 extra bets x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 2 extra bets x 25% of the pot) = .875 bets. So I'd invest 2 extra bets and expect to make .875 bets in return. This is a net of -1.125 bets. Ouch!
The Bottom Line:
Now, if I assign the following probabilies for situations 1, 2, and 3 happening (situation 1 = 50%, situation 2 = 25%, situation 3 = 25%) my combined EV of raising on the river is ((.5 x.3125)+(.25*.9375)+(.25*-1.125)) or +0.11 bets
To Sum it All Up:
This is a pretty "thin" advantage to raising on the river with a low only hand in a 4 way pot. As you can imagine, this small advantage turns negative if the pot is only 3 handed or if your chance of getting quartered is increased (i.e., your playing at a tight table).
However, this advantage is much more positive if you have any chance of scooping. In essense, if the pot is 4 handed on the river, your raises/reraises with a low only hand is a sort of free-roll if you have a chance to scoop (i.e., bottom 2 pair).
For example, instead of the 0% probability of scooping I used in the above scenario, if I use the following probabilities (8% to scoop, 67% to take the low half only, 25% to take a quarter). The EV of raising/reraising on the river is goes way up to .3 bets.
It looks like raising with a low only hand when the pot is contested 4 handed on the river is a positive EV play....so raise it up...."MORE!"
