Thursday, March 15, 2007
Bracketology
So the first evening of the NCAA tournament is about over. 2 of my underdog picks failed to pull off the upset (Oral Roberts and Texas Tech). Then, the 6-11 favorite Duke blew it. So I'm down 3 games. I did pick a 9-8 winner, MSU though. Not a great start, but not too bad. (my brackets)
These first 2 days of the tournament are one of the best sports events of the year.
An interesting question was posed on Mike&Mike in the morning. They asked listeners what are the best sports days of the year. Here are my top 5. Yours?
An interesting question was posed on Mike&Mike in the morning. They asked listeners what are the best sports days of the year. Here are my top 5. Yours?
5. Superbowl
4. Nebraska vs Colorada every Friday after Thanksgiving
3. Opening night in the NBA (triple header on TNT) - on Halloween night.
2. NCAA basketball Tourney (first 2 days)
1. New Year's Day bowl games
Last year, I ran an NCAA bracket buster contest. Points were scored by taking the square of the seed number if the team won. For example, if a 10 seed won, you score 100 points (10 squared). If a #1 seed won, you score 1 point (1 squared). Obviously, you were rewarded for picking upsets. I built a real simple computer model that, based on the probability of each team winning, it picked the teams that would score the most points. As it turns out, the computer suggested to just pick the teams with the highest seed number (16, 15, 14, etc...) even though their odds of winning were very small. So I picked all upsets, straight down the board. Yada Yada Yada...I won and everyone was mad at me.
Speaking of upsets, I was playing some poker last weekend. It was limit poker, 7 handed. I won $50. Whooo Hooo!
An intersting hand came up when playing limit Hold'Em. I was on the button and watched the player UTG raise followed by 3 cold callers. I look down and find 9-2 offsuit. I did some quick math and determined that I was being offered immediate odds of 4:1 and the blinds would both call giving me 6:1. Plus, I hate to fold my button. So I call.
The flop comes 9-4-5. It's checked to me. I bet. I get called in 3 spots. The turn is a 2 giving me top and bottom. It's checked to me. I bet and get 1 caller. The river is a 10. It's checked to me. I bet. I get called, show down the winner and drag a nice pot.
Then, the complaining starts. "how can you call a raise with that garbage?" "You're the worst player in the world." "You're such a donkey." "I wish you'd die - you suck!" The insults were flying so fast, I couldn't keep track.
So, I just got around to simulating the chance of 9-2 offsuit winning at showdown against 4 players playing top 15% hands and the blinds playing top 50% hands. It's a little less than 10%. I guess my cold call of 2 bets preflop may have been a little "marginal" - Ok, I'm a donkey. Live and learn. Next time I'll fold it. There's probably some "implied odds" I should probably take into account, but I'm real tired right now.
Anyway, I get to spend a day of vacation tomorrow accompanying my 10 year old son on his all day field trip to Toledo. Bus ride, 4 hours, 50 screaming kids....should be a blast.
