Tuesday, April 10, 2007
To Expose or not to Expose
As I peruse some of my previous posts, I noticed that I often recap hands where I flop a big hand and win a nice pot. Those are pretty boring. For every one of those hands, there are dozens of hands that I mis-play and lose a little money or mis-play and lose a lot of money. Those are the hands that I should be discussing and soliciting feedback. Those are the ‘leaks’ that must be plugged.
Going forward, I’ll endeavor to recap some of my misplayed hands.
So, last Friday night, we were playing at my place. I was headed out of the town the next morning for a family vacation and was looking to squeeze in a little poker before 3 days of inlaws, 4 hr car trips, pet stains, etc....
I was losing a little money playing $2/$4 limit mixed games. Nothing special. Then, someone suggested we switch to no-limit Hold’Em. Everyone agreed and we made the switch. We’d play with $1/$1 blinds and everyone had around $100 in front of them.
On this one particular hand, we were playing short-handed. A few players had stepped away from the table. Ryno is UTG and raises to $4. I’m next to act and decide this is worth a call with my suited connectors 4d-5d. Compton calls on the button. Brent calls from the SB. Skalony calls from the BB. It’s a raised family pot. Hipee!
The flop comes 6d-2h-3d.
After Brent checks, Skalony leads out for $10. Ryno bows out. I smooth call with the nuts – “it’s a trap!”.
Compton puts an end to the shenagins by going all in for $49. Brent folds. Skalony thinks for a while and finally calls $49 (into an $89 pot). He’s getting 1.8:1 on his call here.
I really liked my hand - obviously. It’s the current nuts with a redraw to a flush and an open ended straight flush. With any luck, both Compton and Skalony hold hands with 2 diamonds. This would leave only 5 diamonds left of which 2 made me the straight flush. They would be praying for only 3 good outs.
Of course, I didn’t think about all of that at the time. I was basically thinking. “Wow, I have the nuts and a redraw to a bigger hand”. So I pushed all in for another $89.
The pot now has $256 (($4 x 5 players)+($49 x 3 players)+($89 raise)). Action back to Skalony. He’s facing an $89 bet into a $256 pot. He’s getting almost 3:1.
He hems and haws. He stews and brews. He complains, “why didn’t I just go all in myself?”. He basically gives away his hand here. He has a diamond draw. He’s a good player, so I know it’s the nut diamond draw.
Here’s where the hand gets interesting. I wasn’t really sure at the time exactly how much was in the pot, but I know he is thinking, “Man, I’m getting the right price to call. I’m 2:1 against hitting one of the remaining 9 diamonds with 2 cards to come and there’s more than enough money in the pot.”
So I figure that there is some real equity for me if he folds. I need to add a little incentive for him to fold.
So when he asks me to run it twice, I decline.
Skalony is just about to complete his analysis of the situation. He starts loading up chips for a call.
I better up the pressure. So, I expose my hand.
I’m sure he didn’t need me to remind him, but I point out, “I’ve got 2 of your outs plus the 7d and 2d are no good for you either as they’d give me a straight flush.
Skalony goes back into the tank. He’s still getting nearly 3:1 on his call but now with only 5 outs, he’s about a 4:1 dog. (Side note: Skalony actually held the Ad-2d so he had 6 good outs – making him a 3.33:1 dog to win the hand with 2 cards to come. The pot was only offering 2.9:1)
He finally folds – in agony.
Compton says, "you're free-rolling" as he tables the 4h-5h. My diamond redraw comes through for me on the turn (Qd) and I take a nice pot.
Skalony later complains that he miscalculated his odds and should have called.
The Analysis:
I disagree. Think about it. If Compton held a hand like 10d-10c, Skalony only would have had 5 outs. If Compton held 2 diamonds, Skalony’s outs would have been down to 4. Even if Compton held a hand like 6c-6h for top set, Skalony would have less outs as any diamond on the river that might pair the turn card would make a full boat.
Even if Skalony was sure that Compton did not have a diamond in his hand or a set, he was only getting 2.9:1 pot odds when he was a 3.33:1 dog in the hand. It was a good fold. Rest easy.
My play, on the other hand – not so good.
I wasn’t able to put this together with much detail at the moment of the actual play. If I would have known that Skalony was getting 2.9:1 pot odds as a 3.33:1 dog, I would have kept my hand disguised and let him make a marginally bad call.
Sure, he would have taken down the pot, but the correct play would have been for me to encourage his call.
I estimated my EV in his call is about 70% of $256 or $179. My EV of his fold is 100% of $167 plus 0% of $89 for $167. So I lost $12 in value from exposing my hand and encouraging his fold.
Is this the right way to think about it?
Going forward, I’ll endeavor to recap some of my misplayed hands.
So, last Friday night, we were playing at my place. I was headed out of the town the next morning for a family vacation and was looking to squeeze in a little poker before 3 days of inlaws, 4 hr car trips, pet stains, etc....
I was losing a little money playing $2/$4 limit mixed games. Nothing special. Then, someone suggested we switch to no-limit Hold’Em. Everyone agreed and we made the switch. We’d play with $1/$1 blinds and everyone had around $100 in front of them.
On this one particular hand, we were playing short-handed. A few players had stepped away from the table. Ryno is UTG and raises to $4. I’m next to act and decide this is worth a call with my suited connectors 4d-5d. Compton calls on the button. Brent calls from the SB. Skalony calls from the BB. It’s a raised family pot. Hipee!
The flop comes 6d-2h-3d.
After Brent checks, Skalony leads out for $10. Ryno bows out. I smooth call with the nuts – “it’s a trap!”.
Compton puts an end to the shenagins by going all in for $49. Brent folds. Skalony thinks for a while and finally calls $49 (into an $89 pot). He’s getting 1.8:1 on his call here.
I really liked my hand - obviously. It’s the current nuts with a redraw to a flush and an open ended straight flush. With any luck, both Compton and Skalony hold hands with 2 diamonds. This would leave only 5 diamonds left of which 2 made me the straight flush. They would be praying for only 3 good outs.
Of course, I didn’t think about all of that at the time. I was basically thinking. “Wow, I have the nuts and a redraw to a bigger hand”. So I pushed all in for another $89.
The pot now has $256 (($4 x 5 players)+($49 x 3 players)+($89 raise)). Action back to Skalony. He’s facing an $89 bet into a $256 pot. He’s getting almost 3:1.
He hems and haws. He stews and brews. He complains, “why didn’t I just go all in myself?”. He basically gives away his hand here. He has a diamond draw. He’s a good player, so I know it’s the nut diamond draw.
Here’s where the hand gets interesting. I wasn’t really sure at the time exactly how much was in the pot, but I know he is thinking, “Man, I’m getting the right price to call. I’m 2:1 against hitting one of the remaining 9 diamonds with 2 cards to come and there’s more than enough money in the pot.”
So I figure that there is some real equity for me if he folds. I need to add a little incentive for him to fold.
So when he asks me to run it twice, I decline.
Skalony is just about to complete his analysis of the situation. He starts loading up chips for a call.
I better up the pressure. So, I expose my hand.
I’m sure he didn’t need me to remind him, but I point out, “I’ve got 2 of your outs plus the 7d and 2d are no good for you either as they’d give me a straight flush.
Skalony goes back into the tank. He’s still getting nearly 3:1 on his call but now with only 5 outs, he’s about a 4:1 dog. (Side note: Skalony actually held the Ad-2d so he had 6 good outs – making him a 3.33:1 dog to win the hand with 2 cards to come. The pot was only offering 2.9:1)
He finally folds – in agony.
Compton says, "you're free-rolling" as he tables the 4h-5h. My diamond redraw comes through for me on the turn (Qd) and I take a nice pot.
Skalony later complains that he miscalculated his odds and should have called.
The Analysis:
I disagree. Think about it. If Compton held a hand like 10d-10c, Skalony only would have had 5 outs. If Compton held 2 diamonds, Skalony’s outs would have been down to 4. Even if Compton held a hand like 6c-6h for top set, Skalony would have less outs as any diamond on the river that might pair the turn card would make a full boat.
Even if Skalony was sure that Compton did not have a diamond in his hand or a set, he was only getting 2.9:1 pot odds when he was a 3.33:1 dog in the hand. It was a good fold. Rest easy.
My play, on the other hand – not so good.
I wasn’t able to put this together with much detail at the moment of the actual play. If I would have known that Skalony was getting 2.9:1 pot odds as a 3.33:1 dog, I would have kept my hand disguised and let him make a marginally bad call.
Sure, he would have taken down the pot, but the correct play would have been for me to encourage his call.
I estimated my EV in his call is about 70% of $256 or $179. My EV of his fold is 100% of $167 plus 0% of $89 for $167. So I lost $12 in value from exposing my hand and encouraging his fold.
Is this the right way to think about it?
Comments:
<< Home
I think you did the math wrong - i think it is a very slight call. However this hand is pretty silly to analyze. It seems like a HUGE DECISION but really its only about $10 either way - tops.
There are tons of other mistakes that are made that are much greater that go unnoticed.
ps. tony also forgot the "put JJ on tilt by busting him" factor which easily tips it to be a call.
Post a Comment
There are tons of other mistakes that are made that are much greater that go unnoticed.
ps. tony also forgot the "put JJ on tilt by busting him" factor which easily tips it to be a call.
<< Home
