Tuesday, May 29, 2007
The Purpose of Poker
As you have probably figured out by now, I spend a fair amount of time/effort on this hobby of mine – poker. Until this weekend, I though I understood, fairly well, my purpose for playing poker. First, I really like the competitiveness and camaraderie. Second, I like to make a little money at it.
I had 2 events happen this weekend that made me realize my new purpose for playing poker.
First, my family had the good fortune of being invited to spend Monday with some friends at their parent’s house on a lake up by Fenton. Their place was fantastic. They had a nice shaded backyard on a lake. They had a pontoon boat and a speed boat. The kids went fishing, swimming, tubing. The food was great. We drank some beer. I tried water skiing. Note to self: to avoid risk of serious injury and severe hamstring pulls, warm up a little before engaging in strenuous muscular activity like water skiing. Anyway, I digress. The day was great. On the way home, I started trying to figure a financial plan that would allow me to purchase a lake property like this. How great would it be to spend every other weekend on the lake? How much could it cost? House prices are really depressed right now, right?
Second, I had a good weekend of poker. Instead of playing home games, I made my way to the casino for a couple of sessions.
Session 1:
The first session took place on Friday afternoon. I took off work at noon, headed to Motor City, met some friends, had lunch and settled in for a nice 4 hour session of $1/$2/$2 blinds NL Hold’Em with a $50-$200 buy in. I won $350. Whooo Hoooo! I guess I shouldn’t count $50 of that as winnings. You see, as we were standing in line to sign up, a really jumpy, hyped-up, young guy lined up behind us. As our names were being called, he offered me $50 to take my seat. I accepted immediately. Little did he know that they were opening a new table and we’d all be seated pretty much immediately. So, with my $50 in profit, I took a seat at the new table – 2 seats to the left of the action junkie kid who just gave me the $50. When he saw me, he kind of shrugged and said, “Oh well”.
2 observations from this session: (1) Playing at the casino is much better than playing at the home game if your primary purpose is profit. The casino offers a much better ratio of bad players. In the home game, almost all of the players are at least decent players who, by in large, avoid making big mistakes. At the casino, there are usually a few bad players that are willing to continue to make mistake after mistake. And, the fish at the casino seem to have no qualms about reloading 2 or 3 times or more, so the money is much more ‘available’ at the casino. (2) It only takes 1 or 2 bad players at a table to make for a positive situation. It can be very frustrating playing at a table of 6 or 7 bad players. Someone always seems to pick off your big hands or freeze you out with a ridiculous play (betting $150 all in, into an $18 pot). But playing at a table with 3 or 4 bad players seems to be just the right mix of “Juicy” plus “safe” – at least for me.
Anyway, I’m starting to develop what I think may be the optimal strategy for playing in this “lower limit” NLHE game at the casino. I’ll share my thoughts on this in a future post and invite the critique of others.
One of my keys is to “KEEP THE POTS SMALL PREFLOP”. It seems like bad players are real big fans of shouting “I’m all in”. It doesn’t really take much provocation for them to use this weapon. They might have a hand, or they might not. There may be a big pot at stake – or maybe not. They may overbet the pot or they may just be putting in their last few chips so that they can reload. Anyway, the point is that when a bad player goes all in, he really takes away all of the advantages that a better player has. This move completely neutralized the better player. This move tends to reduce the poker game to not much more than guessing and flipping coins. I really try to avoid situations where I feel “committed” to a situation where I have to guess or flip coins.
In keeping with this strategy, I decided to limp with As-Qs under the gun on a particular hand. I figured my raise would do nothing more than create a $70 pot pre-flop that I’d be out of position playing. In addition, after the flop, one of the bad players would most certainly just shout “I’m all in” no matter what hits the board. If I limp, I might get a bunch of limpers, but the pot would only be worth $16 before the flop. I was kind of hoping that action junkie would not miss an opportunity to attack a limped pot and would raise from the SB. Then, I could re-raise for isolation, be in position, with what figured to be the best hand. I was not disappointed. After 6 limpers, the action junkie raised it to $16.
This created a pot of $30. The BB folds. Action to me. I make it $50. Everyone folds to action junkie. I’m pretty sure I’ll get called. I do. The pot has $130 and I’m heads-up with a better hand (most likely) and in position against a bad player before we’ve even seen the flop. Perfect.
The turn is a little scary – a 10 comes off. The board reads 7x-4x-2x-10x. Action junkie checks. Now, I know that if I check here, in all likelihood, he’ll say “all-in” no matter what hits the river. I just can’t force myself to bet here. I’ve only got Ace high. My choices are a ridiculously small blocking bet – say around $30 or a check. I check but only after I goad the action junkie to go all in on the river. The river offers no help to me. It pairs the board 7x-4x-2x-4x. I can’t really call a bet here. I’m praying for a check from the action junkie. He checks. I check and drag the pot. He mucks his hand without showing. I’m sure he had something like A-J, K-Q, A-8s, etc…
Anyway, I guess the point is that if I would have raised to say $10 pre-flop with a good hand (As-Qs), I would have probably been called in 6 or 7 spots. Someone may just go all in pre-flop and freeze me out. If not, the pot would have $70 bucks with 7 players going to the flop. I’m going to need to get lucky to get any value from my AQ here. I think limping even with a pretty big hand in EP is the better play here.
Session 2:
So on Sunday night I’m bored. I’ve worked around the house all day. I need a break. I need some “me time”. So I head down to Motor City around 8p. Surprisingly, it only takes about 30 minutes to get there when there’s no traffic. After about a 30 minute wait, I take a seat right in front of the big screen TV (featuring the Pistons Game 3 – they lost) and 2 seats to the left of semi-pro poker player Boone. The table featured about the same mix as session #1 – 6 or 7 good players and 2 or 3 bad ones. I had a good session. I won $440. Whooo Hoooo!
You know how I know they were bad players? Example one – on this one hand, 4 of us made it to the river where the board read 2h-3c-4c-5d-6c. The bad player was first to act, and she bet $20 into a $20 pot. I fold. The 6 of clubs on the river made a flush possible. Plus a 7 would beat me as I was playing the board. I just didn’t want to call a bet when my expectation was to possibly win 25% of a $20 pot. The next guy calls. The last guy folds. The lady flips over A-5 and proclaims that she has a straight. The other guy flips over A-10 and says ‘me too – chop it up’. The lady acts surprised and asks, “Why?”. The dealer had to tell her that she should play the board. She just cost me $5.
Example 2: A pretty solid player sits down to my right. He takes a couple of early beats and is down $50 in about 15 minutes. Then, on this one hand, he opens for a raise and is called. The flop comes 10c-4h-6c. Solid player bets and is called. The turn is a 9d (10c-4h-6c-9d). Solid player bets again and is called. The river is a somewhat meaningless 2 (10c-4h-6c-9d-2x). The solid player bets one more time (a pot sized bet of around $75) and is called. Solid player raps the table and proclaims “good call”. The bad player calling station tables a Jc-4c for a pair of 4s and wins a $200 the pot. That’s rough. That brings up another one of my keys to beating this low limit NLHE game (DON’T BLUFF BAD PLAYERS; take their money the old fashion way – with huge value bets).
A couple of pretty basic observations from this session:
First, I really like to see bad players collect chips from good players – especially if they lay a bad beat on the better player. I kind of feel sorry for them….but happy for me. You see, it’s much easier to win the chips from bad players. Plus, the bad decisions made by bad players are rewarded when the suck out, so hopefully they’ll keep making those mistakes. Finally, great suckouts can tend to put good players on tilt. This is helpful as well. So, when a bad player wins chips from a good player, I try to reinforce their play by saying something like, “nice hand, good job”.
Second observation, bad players occasionally wake up with powerhouse hands. It’s real important to not be the person who doubles up a bad player or goes broke when a bad player wakes up with a powerhouse.
One particular hand came up in this session to illustrate both of these points.
There was this one bad player in seat 9. He spoke with a foreign accent. He was taking a beating. He was down to his last $27 and was pushing it all in about every other hand. Anyway, things changed and he caught fire. He was catching cards like know one’s business. He was bluffing people off of hands. He had the whole table on tilt. Before long, he had built that $27 into more than $1200. That’s a little better than a double-up or triple-up. That’s called the old “forty-four up.” Thankfully, I stayed out of his way for the most part.
So now he was just plain out of control. He played about 95% of his hands. He raised about 95% of the hands he played. He bet the flop about 95% of the time no matter what hit. He was actually playing pretty good, loose-aggressive type poker.
But like I said, even bad players get good hands occasionally. On one hand, he busted 3 players when his pocket Qs made the top set and busted someone’s top pair, someone’s flush draw, another player’s 2 pair.
On a hand I was involved with, this manic raised to $12 pre-flop. 4 players call as do I with 4h-5h. The flop is 9x-5x-5x. I flopped a beauty and was on a mission to double through this guy. He bets $20. I smooth call. We’re heads-up. The turn is a 10 (9x-5x-5x-10x). He bets $30. I raise to $90. He might have a hand that he can’t get away from. Who knows? Plus there are 2 hearts on the board. He puts me all in for my last $40. Bingo! I call. He shows pocket Aces! Whoa! I was in bad shape preflop. I humbly table the winner with my lowly 4-5. I double through. How lucky. I feel a little dirty, but stacking his chips made me start feeling better.
One last hand to recap: This is an almost identical hand to the one I recapped from session 1. I’m sitting with As-Ks right behind a guy that straddled for $4. (Side note: This may be the most attractive hand in hold'em poker. It's a think of beauty to look at). I’m thinking I can do the limp-huge re-raise thing here and take a nice pot with this premium hand. So, I limp. This time, after 2 more players call the $4 straddle, another player makes it $27. Unbelievably, 3 players call him including the straddler. Is it possible that 5 players have premium hands? I think not! My decision was much tougher though. I have $150 left to bet. The raiser was a solid player, but the 3 callers were weak. The only guy I could give credit for holding a decent hand was the original raiser. Finally, my decision came down to the fact that the original raiser was probably capable of laying down a hand like 9-9 or even A-K. Also, his unusually large pre-flop raise made me think he had a somewhat vulnerable hand like J-J, 10-10, A-K, or A-Q. So, I went all in for $150. It seemed like forever, but eventually everyone complied and mucked their hands. The original raiser agonized the longest before he mucked two tens.
I won a nice $120 pot without a contest. Nice. Man, did I take some grief about this play from the table though. They were not happy at all. I still think the play is pretty good. There was a chance (50%?) that I might win a $120 pot without a show down. That’s worth $60. There’s a chance (40%?) that I could be 47% to win vs. a smaller pair (i.e., 10s) – you know, the classic all in coin flip situation. That’s worth around $25. There’s a chance (10%?) I could get called by a worse hand (i.e., A-Qs) where I’m more like a 3:1 favorite. That’s worth $10. So my play is worth around $90 I guess. I’m OK with it. To me the limp re-raise seems like a decent way to protect a good hand in a loose game.
Anyway, back to my opening paragraph. What was this breakthrough from the weekend you might ask? We’ll, my new purpose in playing poker is so that I can spend it all on leisure time (like a summer home on the lake with the family). I can’t think of a much better use of money than this.
It might not happen this year, or next. It may take me a while, but once I get to the point where I can make about $1000 a month playing poker, you can bet your ass I’ll be spending summer weekends out at the Lake.
You can also bet that I’ll do a few warm-up exercises before I try water skiing again.
I’m out!
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Online Poker Bots
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNO-SR-wEsM
Saturday, May 19, 2007
The Criminal Mind
We'll I was recently the victim of a crime. Now, I'm on a mission to get the criminal to confess to the crime that I know he comitted.
The Set-up
So we're playing NL holdem on Friday night with .50/$1 blinds and $50 stacks. The table is usually 5 or 6 handed. I go on a rotton streak. I'm getting cold-decked and bluffed off of pots.
Hand #1 leading up to the crime - I'm in the small blind with a 9c-3x. Action is limped to me. I complete. The BB passes on his option. The flop comes 10c-Jc-8c. I bet $3 into a $3 pot with my open ended straight flush draw. I'm called in one spot (UTG - sharp dressed Kyle). The turn is a blank. I check, he checks. The river is another club (4c?). Kyle bets something like $8. I call and show down the winner. Klye then gives me some grief for playing the lowly 9-3 offsuit.
Hand #2 leading up to the crime - On the very next hand, I'm dealt - you guessed it - 9-3 offsuit on the button. The pot is limped to me in one spot. I, acting mostly as a heat check and because of the Karma surrounding the 9-3 offsuit, fire out a raise of $3. The big blind calls. The pot gets head's up as we move to the flop. The flop comes 5-8-3. I spiked bottom pair with this trash hand. Skalony bets around $5. I'm sure he is thinking that this hand has missed me and he can take down a nice pot here with 2 big cards (i.e., K-J). I dissapoint him by calling. I'm thinking my hand could very well be good here. If not, I could catch a 9 or 3 on the turn that would totally wreck his day. The turn is a beautiful 3. My trash hand has paid off! A warm feeling washes over my body. I'm starting to remember why I love this game so much. Now, back to business. I need to stack Tony for $50 here with this garbage hand. Tony fires out around $12. I call. My thinking was that I could loose a customer here if I raise the turn (even a min raise), but there was a pretty good chance he might bet again on the river. The river is meaningless. The board reads 5-8-3-3-x. Tony bets, I raise. Tony pushes all in. I call and table what I'm sure is the winner. Tony tables pocket 5s for a turned full house. Ouch. Reload. Again. Bad turn. Bad turn. I'm never playing the 9-3 offsuit again under any circumstances. Kyle's advice was right on.
A side note
I saw a wierd hand that was a repeat of a hand that played at one of my tournaments. In the tournament hand, the flop comes A-10-6. Three players get their money all in and each of them are convinced they have the best hand. It turns out to be Andrew with Top Set, Garett with Bottom Set, and another guy with Top 2. Ouch.
On Friday night, 3 players got their money all in on the flop. It too turned out to be top set vs. bottom set vs. top 2. Wierd.
Hand #3 - The crime. The pot is raised to $2.50 from Skalony in EP. I love to call raises in late position, so I'm hoping for some sort of hand. I'm happy to see pocket 3's. I seriously consider re-raising here, but wisdom took over and I flat called. The flop is beautiful. J-J-3. I just flopped a monster. If there is a god in heaven, then Tony will some hand like K-J or A-J, and I'll get my $50 stack back. Tony bets. I call. The turn is a queen. Board reads J-J-3-Q. This is sort of a scare card for me. Tony bets. I call. The river is a K. Board reads J-J-3-Q-K. I'm really feeling like I just got rivered here, but after Tony checks, I'm relieved. I make a value bet of $16 and think I'll get called with J-X or A-10 or even 9-10.
I'm shocked and horrified, when Tony pushes all in. That nagging feeling about Tony playing K-J is now a full-blown panic.
I agonize and agonize and finally fold.
I'm really feeling that I was just victimized. I was just assulted and buglarized for this pot. I can't believed I just laid down a full house. I'm steamed.
So as any good decective would do, I started to interview the suspect. I ask him what he was thinking through the hand. I ask him if he is capable of comitting such a haneous act. Finally, Skalony comes clean and convinces me that he held a K-J for a rivered higher boat.
I feel a little relieved that I was not really bluffed here. Now I can get back to playing some poker.
As it turned out, I was in for $300 in this game and was shuffling my last 15 chips. Then, the other table broke and our table went 10 handed for a while. I went on a heater and cashed out for $165, slashing my losses to a $135. Still sucks....but much less so.
The Epiphany
So on Saturday, after 3 hours of sleep, I take my daughter to soccer (she lost). Then, we rush off to Home Depot to buy a bunch of trees and shrubs for adding to our landscapping. I spend the next 5 hours digging holes, mixing dirt, spreading mulch, etc... It feels really good to do some manual labor and get some fresh air. It also gives me some time to think.
So I start thinking about various things. Next thing ya know, I'm thinking about this hand with Tony. Something just doesn't smell right.
There are three main errors in Tony's testimony.
Error #1. When I folded my hand, Tony got this "shit eating" grin on his face that I've seen dozens of times when he's just did something slick. This look is unmistakeable. I know it. Everyone knows it. Next time he has this look, I'll take a picture and post it here.
Error #2. If Tony strikes gold on the river by hitting a King, why check? There is almost no way he checks here with the 3rd nut hand. Are you kidding me? If he actually connected here, he could not risk me checking behind. He would bet. I'm 100% certain. His check raise here, upon later reflection, had to be a decision he arrived at only after I made what I thought was a value bet. This would also explain the shit eating grin he had as he just realized that I was a lot stronger than trip Jacks. He probably thought he could get me to lay down 3 jacks when a 3rd broadway card came. Once I showed him the mucked full house, he knew he had just pulled off an improbable bluff.
Error #3. When the hand was over, Tony quickly mucked his cards. But this time he did the ulti-muck. This is the muck where you slide your mucked cards in the muck and make sure they are good and buried so that no one can possibly retrieve them later on. This is the classic action of a criminal who, after comitting a crime, tries to hide the weapon.
So, YOU'RE BUSTED Skalony. I know you committed this crime. You know you did it. Everyone knows it. It's time to come clean. Who knows, you might get a reduced sentence.
Just kidding. Nice hand. Nice bluff. You got me good. It did provide some good mental entertainment as I slaved away in my front yard this afternoon.
Friday, May 18, 2007
Break'n em' Down
They’ll list several of the important dimensions of the teams and then identify which team has the advantage (i.e., offense, defense, special teams, coaching, intangibles, etc…).
Well, I have a big game coming up next week. My game is a trip to the casino for an afternoon boondoggle next Friday. The two teams involved here are Greektown and Motor City (Ok, so my analogy is starting to unravel a little bit. Just go with it for a while).
Convenience
Motor City offers better parking. Your walk time from the parking lot to the poker room is 5 minutes max. Plus, there is no hassle with pulling a ticket, validation, and checkout. At Greektown, you have to pull a ticket, struggle to find a spot, walk 2 blocks past FishBones, validate, etc.
Advantage – Motor City
I’ve played at Greektown about a dozen times. I’ve played limit Hold’Em 2 or 3 times and the players are God-awful. I’ve played NL Hold’Em 8 or 9 times and the players, in general, were pretty bad. I’ve only played at Motor City 2 times – both times NL. In each session the play was made up of a mix of solid and weak players – about 50/50. While playing at Motor City, a few guys who seemed to know what they were talking about expressed an opinion that the better, more discriminating poker players choose Motor City and that Greektown had much worse players. Based on this and my own experience–
Advantage Greektown
Greektown charges $6 per half hour to play NLHE. Motor City Rakes the pot at 10% up to $6 max. I’ve looked at this a few times. I guess if you are one of those players that plays very few hands and tends to win a few big hands per session, then the rake structure would be an advantage. If you tend to splash around a lot and win lots of small pots, the half hour rate structure is probably an advantage for you. The way I see it, this is a real close call for a solid player. Here’s my logic:
First, players, in general, do not play as tight as they think they do. A tight player, who claims to only play 10% of his hands, plays more than that. A loose player, who claims to play 40% of his hands, plays more than that. This is a sort of self-serving bias.
Second, players, in general, are not as solid as they think they are. A solid player, who claims to have a 65% hands won at show down rate, is hedging a bit. They are not that solid.
I think I play only 10% of my hands, but, I will call a raise when I’m in position with some pretty trashy hands if I think I can stack a player when I connect. So, when its all said and done, I’m playing about 25%-30% (including the blinds). I don’t play too many hands to show down though. I tend to loose a shit load of money calling raises pre-flop and then folding them on the flop; but I tend to win a shit-load of money when my 5-6 suited takes down a pair of kings for an entire stack. So, for me, playing with a rake is a small advantage. Plus, there is just something very unattractive about the time charge. Although it works out to be about the same as a rake, a time charge just seems nasty, dirty, disgusting. I hate it.
If you work the math
Motor City: 40 hands per hour x 10% hands played X 50% hands won = 2 hands won per hour x $6 per pot raked = $12 per hour
Greektown: $6 per half hours x 2 half hours = $12 per hour time charge
Advantage: Motor City – because I despise the time charge (even though there is really no difference).
Game Choice
Motor City is a little smaller card room. They offer less game variety; however, they do offer the new electronic poker tables where they run some SNGs and lower limit games (if you can stand playing on a computerized poker table – I can’t). Greektown offers a few more limit games at different stakes. I even see them spreading a high limit PLO game and an occasional LO8 game. Both casinos are pathetic in this area though.
Miscellaneous Stuff
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Mother's Day Debacle
Not the best Mother’s Day experience this year.
On Friday, I got the call that the new “family truckster” that I had ordered had arrived and that I could make arrangements to go pick it up. We ordered a new Saturn Relay. I know, I know – it’s a minivan. But, it’s new! We get to turn in the old one. That should be some cause for happiness, right? Anyway, right after the salesman called me to tell me it was ready, my wife called me in a bit of a panic. Apparently, as she was driving down the road, someone hurled a rock toward our old van and it blew out the passenger side window. So I get to pay $250 to have the window replaced just days before I turned in the vehicle on a lease exchange. Bad beat!
On Friday night – poker debacle of major proportions. More to come on this.
On Saturday, went bowling. Got beat by my 14 year old son. Bad beat! (although I did strike out, XXX, in the last frame of the first game to salvage a 136 score).
On Sunday, the flowers that I ordered for my wife (that arrived on Saturday), started dieing. I order from Pro-flowers because Mike Greenberg (of Mike & Mike in the morning fame) recommended them on his morning radio show. The strongest appeal was the “direct from the growers” and these were the “longest lasting flowers” available. They weren’t! The drooping roses were symbolic of the entire weekend. (Complaint letter to Pro Flowers)
On Sunday afternoon, I thought I would do a nice thing and get lunch for the fam. No making the wife cook on Mother’s day! The wife selected Boston Market carry out. It was a really bad experience. (Complaint letter to Boston Market)
Piston’s loose!
Now, onto the poker from Friday night.
I had my 2nd worst session performance on record. I lost $400. That’s not the bad part. The bad part is that this comes from a playing a 6 hour session of $3/$6 limit poker. To state the obvious, this is a loss of 67 big bets in 6 hours. Given that I should have been making around 4 or 5 big bets/hr, this was a major debacle. This was a meltdown session of epic proportions – a complete sham, a travesty, a mockery. It was a traves-sham-ockery.
Actually, I had a good time, but I just kept loosing and loosing. We were playing 8 handed 7 card stud. The table featured 1 or 2 good players, 2 or 3 average players, and 2 or 3 slightly below average players. I should have been able to make a little money.
After the first few hours of loosing, I’d just re-comitt mentally to playing good. But, after the last few hours of loosing, I was transformed into a calling station on 3rd street, then trying to outplay people more from 4th street onward. But I also played a little passive (i.e., checking my big draws instead of betting them).
Anyway, the only way to loose this much money at these limits is to combine playing like a donkey and being card dead. I was in championship form on both of these fronts.
One observation I had about this particular game was the amount of betting on the river. Most 7 card stud games I’ve been involved with, there is little betting on the river unless someone has a hammer lock. My experience is that there is very little bluffing on river and very little value betting with marginal hands (i.e, 1 pair or a smallish 2 pair – 10’s up. ). I think this due impart to the size of the pot on the river. With an extra betting round and the antes - compared to hold'em, the river bluff bet doesn't seem to be as effective because the pots are a little larger. In this particular game though, almost every river was bet. I think this was because people didn’t really know how to properly value their hand. Almost every pot was 3 handed or more, and the overcalling was rampant.
The Donk Bet
I’ve heard a few of my collegues refer to a “donk” bet. I haven’t really asked for the definition, but from experience, a “donk” bet seems like a bet on the river where the bettor doesn’t really know if they are making a value bet or a bluff. There's no real purpose to the donk bet. Its more of a curiosity bet (i.e., I wonder what will happen if I bet here?). The bettor just sort of fires a bet out there and hopes something good comes out of it. This is the “donk” bet.
On this one particular hand of stud, I held a (8x-10x) – 9x. As I looked around at door cards, I saw 3 of my “first order” cards were dead (two 7’s and a J). I also found 2 of my “2nd order” cards were dead (one Queen and one 6). Ordinarily, I don’t want to play a middle straight draw unless my cards are live or there are few/no overcards on the board. In this particular hand, there were both overcards (3 of them) and my 3 of my cards were dead. This should be an easy fold. But, it’s limped around to me in 4 spots and I'm playing like a donkey, so I peel a card off for $1 (bring in amount). After a Kh-4h checks, a lady in seat 8 opens with a Jx-10x. I caught a 10 so my board reads (8x-10x) - 9x-10x. I decide to call one small bet here. I’m getting about 7:1, but I’m afraid I’m sharing cards with the lady that bet out. The guy with the Kh-4h calls and we are headed to 5th street 3 handed.
The guy catches what looks like a brick (6x). His board reads Kh-4h-6x. The lady catches a somewhat scarey card (8x). Her board reads Jx-10x-8x. I catch an 8. My board now reads (8x-10x) - 9x-10x-8x. I’ve got a pretty good hand. I’m open ended (but only 5 outs), plus I have 2 outs for a full house.
I don’t really know how to figure odds in stud, but with 7 outs, I figured that I’m about 25% to catch a good card with 2 to come. The dilemma was that I could catch a good card (to make a straight) and loose to 2 better hands (the lady with the higher straight and the guy with the flush).
Anyway, the guy with the K high checks. The lady bets. I continue my donkish play and call. He calls and we’re off to 6th street. There is about 8 big bets in the pot. The guy catches another brick Kh-4h-6x-Qx. The lady catches a brick Jx-10x-8x-2x. I catch a brick (8x-10x) - 9x-10x-Xx. It’s checked all around.
The river is dealt. I catch another brick. I have 2 pair 10s up (8x-10x) - 9x-10x-Xx (Xx).
The King high is still in the lead and checks. The lady looks uncomfortable about her decision. So I offer a suggestion, “don’t donk here”. She bets anyway and I say something like “Oh no, she donked it”.
In retrospect, this was a sort of social faux paux. I’ve never played with her before and I’m guessing that most of the players I was playing with had not heard of/used the term “donk bet”. So they must have interrupted my comments as something like, “she’s a donkey”. Clearly, these are two different messages. I apologized later for the insulting comment, but I wasn’t getting any love and the bad karma insued.
Anyway, I fold. The pot is laying me about 10:1 here, but clearly I’m beat here. Right? The guy with the King calls – which makes me feel better. Amazingly, he called with 2 pair 6s and 4s and takes the pot after the lady showed a single pair of jacks.
Now, I’m a little steamed. I start chanting a lesson of limit poker in my head, “there is no bigger mistake than to fold a winning hand for a single bet into a large pot on the river”, “there is no bigger mistake than to fold a winning hand for a single bet into a large pot on the river”, “there is no bigger mistake than to fold a winning hand for a single bet into a large pot on the river”
Ok. I’ve learned my lesson. This was a $50 mistake. I will not make this mistake twice.
About 30 minutes later I got involved in a hand that played out very similarly. I was last to act on the river in a 3 handed pot. It is check around to me (first by the lady from the hand above followed by a solid player to my right). I have Kings up and would generally check it down here and expect to win a nice pot. From the way the hand played out, I’m fairly certain my hand is good. But I start to remember another lesson of limit poker, “success in limit poker is achieved by winning an extra bet here/there and not paying off an extra bet here/there.”
So, I thought I’d try a value bet here. I might get called by someone who smelled this last bet as a desperation move to bluff at the pot. So, I bet.
What do you know? I’m check raised by the lady who checked the river from the first position. I want to puke! This lady is so straight forward. There is almost no way in hell that she pulls this move as a bluff. I’m 100% certain this is no bluff. Then, I start to recall my earlier mistake above of folding a winning hand into a large pot for a single bet. So I make the agonizing call and muck my cards when she shows down three 9s. This turned out to be a $12 mistake as compared to the $50 mistake from above.
I proceeded to play equally bad for the rest of the evening.
Finally, we played shorted handed round-by-round. I thought I might have a small advantage as we played games like Razz and Omaha hi/lo with some players asking questions like, “what is the best possible hand here?" So I stuck around a little longer.
I lost the rest of my money before sulking and heading home for the night.
What a debacle.
Oh, well. I guess I can always play some golf to lift my spirits.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Embarrassed for Detroit
I don't know about you, but I'm embarrassed for Detroit. Our mayor is a joke. We re-elected this guy? I'm embarrassed for the voters.
I know that I've only been here for 5 years and I don't technically live in Detroit, so I'm not really an insider on this, but the following links summarize, fairly succintly, how I've seen things unfold for the fine City of Detroit over the last 4 years. This is a shame.
Detroit - the shinnning city on a hill
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Business Speak
If you're like me, as you listen to the different "intellectuals" from work speak, you try to count how many times they misuse or overuse some of these popular business words and phrases (i.e, strategize, synergy, stretch goals, etc...). Then, you laugh a little inside by how silly they sound.
Here's a concept that is not silly though.
You want to have some fun?
Let's start interjecting poker phrases and terminology into business speak.
There are a couple of pretty basic ones that have been around for a while:
"holding the cards close to the vest" - being secretive
"play the cards you've been dealt" - doing the best you can
"upping the ante" - introducing more risk
I'm thinking we should come up with some new ones.
When you've been the victim of bad luck, try this one. "hey boss, the reason I missed my sales objectives for April was due to the bad beat from these high oil prices"
When you want to scrap a loosing project, try this one. "hey boss, this initiative to move the Sacramento office to the Philippines is a bad idea. We should muck it"
When an adversary gets a Little lucky, you might try "hey boss, I was on track to be the sales leader for the 3rd consecutive month if it wasn't for Mary sucking out on me by landing that miracle account with Accent Lumber"
If you need to make a decision about an important topic without much data, you can justify your actions by saying, "hey boss, I just needed to go with my read on this one."
Or, if you make a bad decision because you weren't really thinking straight, you can defend yourself by saying, "hey boss, I don't know what went wrong. I guess I was tilting a little from the bad beat laid on me when Mary sucked out on me by landing that miracle 2 outer with the Accent Lumber account"
C'mon. Let's do this. I've already introduced the terms "bad beat" and "going with my read" and they seem to be catching on. I'm going to need my poker brothers out there in Corporate America to support me though. What do ya say?
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Shooting an Angle
So I played in a 14 person NLHE tournament on Saturday and was determined to play well. I started off the tournament by running hot. On the first hand of the night, I turned a flush from the BB and won a little money. On the 8th hand, again from the BB, I flopped a flush when I held a 3h-5h. The betting when cold when the 4 heart came on the turn. I was able to check it down on the river and win another small pot. For the early rounds, I stuck to my strategy. I was determined to not play many pots from out of position. It worked. I attacked some small pots from position and I hit a few hands. By the time we had lost 4 players I had doubled my starting chips without ever really risking much.
Key Hand #1
On one key hand, I held Ah-5x. I was middle position and fired out a small raise (3x). The table was playing very tight. It’s folded around to a player in the blind who calls. The flop comes 7h-5x-3h. I struck middle pair and after it was checked to me, I made what I thought might be a bet for value. I get called, so I have no idea where I’m at. I’ve never played with this guy before. I have zero info. The turn is a pretty good card for me – another 5. The board reads 7h-5x-3h-5h. Now I have the nut flush draw to go with trip 5s (and best kicker). After it’s checked to me, I fire out a bet of 2/3rds of the pot. This guy calls. I figure I’m going to need some help on the river. The river is a heart. The board reads 7h-5x-3h-5h-10h. I have the nut flush. Now, this guy snaps to attention and fires out a bet of about 2/3rds the size of the pot. I recheck my hole cards (more to come on this), and confirm that I do hold the Ace of hearts. I’ve got a bad feeling about this. I call and ask if he has a boat. He shows pocket 3’s for the boat. I ship about 30% of my stack across the table.
The interesting part about the hand was that after I finally rechecked my hole cards, I discovered that I didn’t hold Ah-5x. I actually held Ah-4x. I mis-read my hand the whole way. Is it any wonder I can’t win a friggin’ tournament?
Key Hand #2
Next thing I know, I’m down to about 20 big blinds and I’m dealt As7s. I make a standard 3x raise. A guy I’ve never played with before goes all in. I’m getting 2:1 and fold. I’m down to 17 big blinds. Then, I’m dealt Ax-7x again. After one real short stack limped, I raised it 4x. Action is folded to the limper. He calls and shows AQ. I’m down 13 big blinds. 2 hands later I’m dealt KK, I make a standard 3x raise. I get called by the BB. Flop comes Jx-8x-X. It’s checked to me. I bet 2/3rds of the pot. The BB hems/haws for a few seconds and goes all in for about another 1/3rd of the pot. I insta-call. He shows 8-8 for a set. I have 2 outs. My longshot comes through on the turn when the King hits. I was really supposed to be crippled on that hand but as we discussed it, the hand probably would have played out the same way no matter what cards hit the board.
Key Hand #3
Last hand of my night. I’m in the BB with Ax-7x again. The blinds are high. The bubble is about to burst. UTG limps. This was a strange play. Almost every pot at this point was being opened for a raise. This guy, Ray, had recently been down to the felt and was just getting healthy again. Action is folded to the SB who completes. I have exactly 10 big blinds left. I thought there is no way this guy would limp with a big hand in this spot and risk wasting it by giving a free flop to the blinds or loosing value by letting players see a board. So, I make my stand and push all in. He insta-calls and shows KK. It was a trap – he got me good. I’m out in 5th. Oh, well!
Shooting an Angle
An interesting hand came up earlier in the night. Action is folded to me in the small blind. I joked to the big blind, “ya wanna just chop it” with out looking at my cards. Of course, this is a somewhat standard play in cash games at the casino, but is not allowed in tournaments. I was just being sarcastic and attempting to be funny. Ray responds, “OK” and loads his cards up in his hand as if he wants to muck them - you know, the cards are between the index and forefinger with the fingers curled back ready to flick the cards forward. He wasn’t joking. I stopped him and say I just joking and we not really allowed to chop in a tournament. Then, I look at my cards and find an Ax-10x. So, I announce raise. He mucks immediately and gives starts to give me some grief and implies that I may have been shooting an angle to steal his blind.
“Shooting an angle” is a term used to describe a play in poker that is marginally legal/illegal and always unethical. An example of shooting an angle is when a player with a marginal hand notices a dealing error (i.e., an exposed card, a player skipped, etc...), and throws cards into the muck and proclaims "mis-deal" and encourages other players to do the same. Many of these dealing errors are correctable without re-dealing the hand, but an in-experienced dealer may take direction from this player or not know how to respond to a player that is proclaiming a misdeal and has mucked his cards. So, it may work occasionally. Even if it doesn't work, the player who tries this move has nothing to loose since he was planning to muck anyway. This is "shooting an angle."
But it got me thinking. There are other “techniques” that are sometimes used to get an advantage that are not really considered unethical or illegal. An example is table talk. Table talk is where you manipulate a player with your talk. There are many more sophisticated ways to get an advantage. For example, let’s say you get your opponent all in creating a $100 pot. You show A-K. Your opponent shows J-J. So you offer, “I’ll split the pot with ya. OK?” Your opponent agrees. You just scored about $7 more than you were due (as you are only 43% to win that hand).
Here’s one of my favorites of these “techniques”. To describe it, I’ll use a situation that I actually witnessed at a home game. The game was 7 handed NLHE cash game with $1/$1 blinds and $100 max buy in. An active player was taking a bit of a beating and talking some smack. He had about $20 left. The other players had between $50 and $200. After 2 limpers, this short stacked player raises to $6 and announces that the rest of his money will go in no matter what hits on the flop. Everyone folds around to him and he takes a nice $4 pot without a confrontation. I thought to myself, “how cool!” This guy just effectively made an all in raise for $20 by only betting $6.
Another example, that I’ve read about but not really seen in live play is the offer of insurance. The example goes like this. You and an opponent get all in. You table an overpair J-J vs. your opponents bottom 2 pair (he has 5-6) on a board of 10-5-6. There’s $100 in the pot. You are a dog, so you offer your opponent some suck out insurance. You offer to concede the pot to him (after all, he’s the favorite) as long as he pays you $30. That way, as you sell it, he doesn’t have to worry about you sucking out on him by spiking a 10, J, or pairing the turn card (5 outs twice plus 3 outs once). If he’s not that sharp, he just may take you up on your suck-out insurance and you’ll make a tidy $5 profit (you were only 25% to win that $100 pot).
Call for Papers
