Thursday, June 21, 2007
Freeeeee Roll'n
Anyway, the reason I mention free rolling is because I’ve really been working on coming up with some “best practices” for beating the low limit NL Hold’Em game at the casino – a game that features 4 or 5 bad players or more per table. Adjustments are necessary when playing this type of game versus playing at a table with 9 or 10 solid players.
One of these best practices that I’m almost sure is valid is the importance of making bad players play their hands after the flop. I think that bad players are much closer in skill to the better players with their pre-flop play. Bad players can accurately identify good starting hands (especially premium hands) and usually play them correctly (i.e., raising and re-raising with them). Where the skill level really begins to diverge is with post flop play. In my opinion, the bad players tend to make several major post flop mistakes that can be exploited by better players.
First, bad players tend to play their draws unprofitably. Bad players will continue to call with 4 outers (gut shots) and 5 outers (2 pair) regardless of position and stack sizes.
Second, bad players find ways to make as little value as possible from their draws. Bad players tend to call with longshot draws, but once they hit, they make really small value bets ~ 25% of the pot so they don’t “scare off” their opponents.
Finally, bad players can not let go of a premium hand even though it should be obvious that they are beat. A real good example of this comes from a home game I was involved with this past Saturday. We are playing 8 handed NLHE with $1/$2 blinds, stacks are at about $100 each around the table, and all 8 players are pretty solid. I’m dealt 2 pretty red Aces in early position. I make a raise to $10 and get 2 callers. The flop comes Q-Q-2. I lead out for $20. I get smooth called by a guy with $100 left. Then, I get reraised by a guy who is all in for another $35. I fold. The first player calls and shows A-Q. The second player shows Q-2. Not that I’m a good player, but I think this is a pretty easy fold. Bad players at the casino will never fold the A-A under any circumstances.
If you’re a good player and can make pretty accurate post flop reads, you can lay down a hand (that looked real good preflop) when you know you’ve been outflopped. This is a profitable play.
If you’re a good player, you can make excellent value from your made hands post flop against bad players that are calling pot sized bets hoping to hit that 5 outer. This is a profitable play.
Freeeee Roll'n
Now here’s where free rolling comes in. If you’re a good player, you can take a flop, even for a raise, against a bad player when you are in position with speculative hands…. and free roll – that is, you can win their entire stack, but there is no way they will win any more money off of you. To validate this strategy, just watch a few hours of High Stakes Poker on GSN and observe the play of Daniel Negreanu. He makes numerous calls, when in position, with very speculative hands (3h-4h). The key is to not play hands that can be dominated (Kx-Jx or Ax-9x) and you must have a pretty high likelihood of being able make a gigantic score against a bad player that will overplay a hand like two kings.
So, the keys to this best practice (Free-rolling) in beating the $1/$2 NLHE casino game.
- The opening raiser must be a bad player who has real potential for overplaying his hand post flop
- The money of the opening raiser must be deep (10x or more the size of his opening raise)
- You must be in late position (cutoff or button) – to minimize the chance of a re-raise from behind you
- Your money must be deep as well (10x or more the size of the raise)
- You must have a hand that is not dominated by the likely holdings of the opening raiser.
- Finally, you must be very disciplined. The flop must hit you hard (2 times or more) for you to continue. You simply cannot show down a 2nd best hand – ever, as this will erode any profitability from this play
It’ll work – trust me.
The Free Roller becomes the Free Rollee
Now, what if you find yourself being the “free-rollee” instead of the free-roller? There a couple of things I like to do if I find myself being free-rolled on (BTW, you’ll know you're the free-rollee when every pre-flop raise you make is being called by the same guy, over and over and over).
The counter-measures I like to use against a free-roller include.
- “Tick up”. That is, if your opening bet is $10 and you get called, next time “tick up” to $13, then $16, etc… until you find the maximum point that the free roller will call. These late position calls by the free-roller with speculative hands represent profit for you. Make it as expensive for the free-roller as possible.
- Size the continuation bet correctly. Since the flop will most likely miss the free roller, any bet from you should end the hand. When the flop is pretty safe or uncoordinated, make a smaller bet – around 1/3rd to ½ pot. If you’ve been out flopped by some garbage, it’ll be important for you to control the size of the pot. If you get called, no problem. The pot is still small. If the flop is coordinated, bet around 2/3rd of the pot. If you get raised, consider mucking, but you have to lay an unprofitable price for someone calling with a draw. 2/3rd pot sized bet lays a pretty bad price and is as small of a commitment as you can make with your continuation.
- Finally, you have to be very comfortable laying down a big pre-flop hand when you’ve been outflopped. This ability of yours destroys any profitability of the free-roller. Play a few hundred hours of Omaha if you need some experience laying down big preflop hands when the flop screws you.
Anyway, I know this was a little long winded. Please critique this strategy. Also, this was a kind of response to another blog where a guy’s big hands seemed to be going down in flames around him. [hespyblog]
See ya at the table….oh yea, I’ll be the guy free-rolling.
Dealer: Hand #2728907454
Dealer: MUCKEMSAYUHH posts the small blind of
$500
Dealer: TheOcean0 posts the big blind of $1,000
Dealer: Gus Hansen raises to $3,500
Dealer: Urindanger has 15 seconds left to act
Dealer: Urindanger has requested TIME
Dealer: Urindanger calls $3,500
Dealer: gamble up77 folds
Dealer: traheho folds
Dealer: MUCKEMSAYUHH folds
Dealer: TheOcean0 folds
Dealer: The flop is [9d Qd 5d]
Dealer: Gus Hansen has 15 seconds left to act
Dealer: Gus Hansen bets $23,334.90, and is all in
Dealer: Urindanger has 15 seconds left to act
Dealer: Urindanger calls $23,334.90
Dealer: Gus Hansen shows [Td Tc]
Dealer: Urindanger shows [Ks Qs]
Dealer: The turn is [6h]
Dealer: The river is [2s]
Dealer: Gus Hansen shows a pair of Tens
Dealer: Urindanger shows a pair of Queens
Dealer: Urindanger wins the pot ($55,166.80) with a
pair of Queens
Dealer: Gus Hansen is sitting out
Did Gus overplay his tens on the flop by the big overbet? What do you think of Urindanger's call with the top pair and no diamond?
I think URINDANGER’s call with a KQo is marginal (but it depends on how loose/tight the table has been playing). I’d personally be worried making a call in that spot that someone with a relatively short stack (GUS) will pretty much just push after the flop no matter what. In reality, I’d be wondering to myself, “why am I playing stakes this high? Am I dead? Is this a dream?”
I think GUS’s push on the flop was good. If you think about the likely holdings of URINDANGER, only 2 of the hands from group (B) beat you
GROUP A (Reraise preflop) AA, AK, KK, QQ, JJ
GROUP B (Call preflop) AQ, AJ, A10, A-Xs, 10-10 to 2-2, KQs, KJs
Plus, if URINDANGER has a naked big diamond (Ad-7h) he can’t call this 3x overbet. Urindanger would need one of the 2 hands out of the 10 hands in group (B) or an unlikely hand from group (A) or an unlikely hand that contained both a pair and a diamond (Ad-9s). Gus’s push will work like 8 out of 10 times.
If you’ll grant me that 8 out of 10 number, Gus wins $8000 bucks 80% of the time and he’ll loose $23 grand 20% of the time. His play has an EV of +$1800. Plus, Gus may spike a diamond and win. He may be called by URINDANGER holding a JxKd and win when a J, K, or Diamond does come off. Or, he may win if a 10 comes off. I think his push is a definite positive EV play
I think URINDANGER’s flop call of Gus’s 3x overbet with a KQo is good given Gus’s range and playing style. Top pair w/good kicker vs. a short-stacked, loose aggressive player. I’d just call here and hope that a diamond doesn’t come. Then, after dragging the $50k pot, I’d tip the dealer my customary $1 and immediately leave the table having won more in that single hand of poker than I have my entire 4 year poker career. Then, ….I’d snap back to reality.
So, since I would be all-in either way, it probably makes sense to just push on the flop.
last night. Summary - I flopped a set of 2s with 3 hearts on the
board. Someone bet, I raise, I get re-raised, I re-raise All-in,
get called. Guy had the flush. I get lucky on the river and get a
boat!! Check out the hand history below. MY question, was this a Donkey play (I'm "ME")?
Seat 1: UncleSam619858 ($45)
Seat 2: Tyrell Corp ($239)
Seat 3: Master CJ ($209.95)
Seat 4: sailfish22 ($270.20)
Seat 5: CCUUURRSE ($200)
Seat 6: BLACKCRUSH ($175.20)
Seat 7: ME ($178)
Seat 8: SpacepimpX ($95.15)
Seat 9: MississippiMiss ($184.25)
SpacepimpX posts the small blind of $1
MississippiMiss posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ME [2c 2s]
Tyrell Corp folds
Master CJ raises to $4
sailfish22 calls $4
CCUUURRSE folds
BLACKCRUSH folds
ME calls $4
SpacepimpX folds
MississippiMiss folds
*** FLOP *** [2h Kh Ah]
Master CJ bets $8
sailfish22 calls $8
ME raises to $33
sailfish22 raises to $100
ME raises to $174, and is all in
sailfish22 calls $74
ME shows [2c 2s]
sailfish22 shows [9h Th]
*** TURN *** [2h Kh Ah] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [2h Kh Ah 4c] [4h]
ME shows a full house, Twos full of Fours
sailfish22 shows a flush, Ace high
ME wins the pot ($368) with a full house, Twos full of Fours
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $371 | Rake $3
Board: [2h Kh Ah 4c 4h]
Seat 1: UncleSam619858 is sitting out
Seat 2: Tyrell Corp didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Master CJ folded on the Flop
Seat 4: sailfish22 showed [9h Th] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 5: CCUUURRSE didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: BLACKCRUSH didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: ME (button) showed [2c 2s] and won ($368) with a full
house, Twos full of Fours
Seat 8: SpacepimpX (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: MississippiMiss (big blind) folded before the Flop
So after my XX number of free beers, I am raising any two cards at the 2/5 table. I think I keep betting all the way to the river, to which I think I made trip 7's. The other guy is very confused by my check on the end, and so he flips up his nut flush. I say "nice hand" and resort to mucking my cards but search and somehow find the 7 I hold of my two cards and flip it up to show I at least had something. The dealer then politely says, "You have to show both cards to win the pot." I then look again and see the board had paired. I turn over the other card which happens to be an offsuit 9. I recall someone else saying, "You didn't bet that on the end?"
I'm really not this bad at cash. But I thought the story was very funny.
But no, I don't think your play was donkish.....I would be thinking he had flopped the flush after being re-raised on your re-raise, but I depending on my mood I may take a gamble on it. (The non-drinking Eileen would probably fold).
Your full house....now that's comical! At least they didn't muck your hand. I've seen that before where someone throws their cards face up into the discard pile for the winning hand...and the dealer mucks their hands!
I'm off to Vegas in 2 weeks. My brother in-law might be playing in the big game. He's been on a crazy winning streak at a Casino in Milwaukee. There's crazy action their. Each weekend night....he's been raking in $1200 to $2000 for 4 hours of play. Some really terrible players that constantly try to bluff!! Just got time it right and hold the cards when they start to bluff ya.
Later,
Clay
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