Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Playing deep - Playing Shallow
So I took my gigantic payroll to the casino on Friday. I decided to play $1/$2 NLHE with $100 max buy-in. I was feeling super confident after winning in my last two sessions - $144 (Greektown) and $10 (home game).
It didn't go so well.
I lost $300....left with my tail between my legs (wait, that sounds weird) - left beaten and demoralized.
At this particular game, the players are pretty bad. I got sort of a bad "draw" though and found myself at a table with only 2 or 3 bad players - and they were the worst kind of bad players - weak/tight - the kind that give their money away slowly. The much prefered bad player is the weak/loose player followed by the loose/aggressive - the kind that gives their money away in big chunks.
Ordinarily, there is a person or 2 with $200 to $400, but pretty much everyone else has between $40 and $100 - making this a pretty "shallow" game. On average, I'd guess that most players have about 40 big blinds. I see so many players tossing in their last $30 holding a hand like pocket 7s when the board comes Ax-Qx-10x because they are "pot committed". Should make for a profitable situation.
I decided to play with $70 stacks and top off anytime I dropped to $50. The new rule at Greektown is that you can top off to $100 anytime you want. I think this is a direct result of competition - Motor City- that has similar rules. So for all of you commies out there don't think competition is good, I bet to differ.
Anyway, playing shallow makes me much more willing to commit my entire stack. It gives me a sort of "financial freedom". Plus, it feels like it gives me some added protection when I make a preflop raise of about $20. I can just continue after the flop for the rest my stack and it kind of ruins other player's implied odds if they pick up a draw or an underpair.
I dunno, seemed like a decent strategy at the time.
Anyway, I played super tight. I folded so many weak but enticing hands (A-6 in early position, K-Q after a raise and call, etc...). I don't think I open limped 5 times. I lost my first stack when I open raised with Ah-Jh for $15 after two limpers, spiked top-top, continued for $30 into a $40 pot, and got check raised for my last $25 from someone who flop a straight holding Q-9 off. So much for my short stack strategy.
I lost a few more stacks. Then, toward the end of the session, I bled a stack down to about $50 and found a hand (Ac-7c) after a really loose, gambler dude raised $12 from middle position, had one caller - who had about $36 left behind. I thought an all-in reraise to $50 had some pretty good equity. Here's my thinking.
I might win $27 in dead money if it goes fold-fold. I really thought I was about a coin flip against the range held by gambler dude if he calls. Plus, I really didn't think short stack dude would smooth call pre-flop with a pair higher than 7s - this makes me at worst a coin flip or slight dog against him if he calls.
After I lost the hand, I was looking forward to doing some math on the "correctness" of this decision.
Let me know if you think I got it right. I think the play had a positive EV ($19).
I thought there was about a 75% chance gambler dude would fold. I though there was about a 75% chance short stack dude would fold. If gambler dude called, I thought I'd win about 50% of the time given the wide range of hands he played. If short stack dude called, I thought I'd win about 50% of the time (if he had a stronger hand, I think he would have pushed pre-flop). If both called, I thought I win about 33% of the time.
It didn't go so well.
I lost $300....left with my tail between my legs (wait, that sounds weird) - left beaten and demoralized.
At this particular game, the players are pretty bad. I got sort of a bad "draw" though and found myself at a table with only 2 or 3 bad players - and they were the worst kind of bad players - weak/tight - the kind that give their money away slowly. The much prefered bad player is the weak/loose player followed by the loose/aggressive - the kind that gives their money away in big chunks.
Ordinarily, there is a person or 2 with $200 to $400, but pretty much everyone else has between $40 and $100 - making this a pretty "shallow" game. On average, I'd guess that most players have about 40 big blinds. I see so many players tossing in their last $30 holding a hand like pocket 7s when the board comes Ax-Qx-10x because they are "pot committed". Should make for a profitable situation.
I decided to play with $70 stacks and top off anytime I dropped to $50. The new rule at Greektown is that you can top off to $100 anytime you want. I think this is a direct result of competition - Motor City- that has similar rules. So for all of you commies out there don't think competition is good, I bet to differ.
Anyway, playing shallow makes me much more willing to commit my entire stack. It gives me a sort of "financial freedom". Plus, it feels like it gives me some added protection when I make a preflop raise of about $20. I can just continue after the flop for the rest my stack and it kind of ruins other player's implied odds if they pick up a draw or an underpair.
I dunno, seemed like a decent strategy at the time.
Anyway, I played super tight. I folded so many weak but enticing hands (A-6 in early position, K-Q after a raise and call, etc...). I don't think I open limped 5 times. I lost my first stack when I open raised with Ah-Jh for $15 after two limpers, spiked top-top, continued for $30 into a $40 pot, and got check raised for my last $25 from someone who flop a straight holding Q-9 off. So much for my short stack strategy.
I lost a few more stacks. Then, toward the end of the session, I bled a stack down to about $50 and found a hand (Ac-7c) after a really loose, gambler dude raised $12 from middle position, had one caller - who had about $36 left behind. I thought an all-in reraise to $50 had some pretty good equity. Here's my thinking.
I might win $27 in dead money if it goes fold-fold. I really thought I was about a coin flip against the range held by gambler dude if he calls. Plus, I really didn't think short stack dude would smooth call pre-flop with a pair higher than 7s - this makes me at worst a coin flip or slight dog against him if he calls.
After I lost the hand, I was looking forward to doing some math on the "correctness" of this decision.
Let me know if you think I got it right. I think the play had a positive EV ($19).
I thought there was about a 75% chance gambler dude would fold. I though there was about a 75% chance short stack dude would fold. If gambler dude called, I thought I'd win about 50% of the time given the wide range of hands he played. If short stack dude called, I thought I'd win about 50% of the time (if he had a stronger hand, I think he would have pushed pre-flop). If both called, I thought I win about 33% of the time.
Oh, how did the hand turn out?....gambler dude had 6-6. Short stack dude had K-Qo. My win assumptions above were correct. I was a small favorite (34%), but alas, a king hit the turn and I hit the exit.
