Monday, March 24, 2008
More Razz and a New Milestone
Well, thanks to 4 winning sessions in a row, I’ve got my winnings chart headed in a northerly direction and I’m feeling pretty good.
I know it’s kinda weak, but I just passed another small milestone ($6000 in career poker winnings). I wish I had it all in a cash box somewhere – I’d head to Vegas.
I’ve got a razz question if anyone would like to opine.
This hand came up in a $5 HORSE SNG last night – I’m a big fan of these.
I bring it in ($14) with a King up and an A-2 in the hole. We get 3 limpers with a 6, 7, and 8 respectively. Then, the guy directly to my right completes the bet ($40) with an Ace up.
Action is to me.
After having mis-played this type of hand many times, I now believe this is a clear fold situation.
Here’s my thinking.
I’m getting like 7 to 1 on my call at this point (if the 3 limpers behind me call…which they will); however, I’m going to need to catch a good card on 4th street and hope that all 4 of my opponents catch bad to feel comfortable continuing with the hand. If this would happen, it would be the “dream street”. Do you know what the odds of me catching good and 4 players all catching bad are?
Well, I could catch a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. This gives me 21 good cards out of 42 unseen – 50%. (I’ll ignore bluffing cards, like a deuce, for both me an my opponents)
My opponents could catch a K, Q, J, 10, 9, or pair their door card. This gives them 23 bad cards out of 42 unseen for around 50%.
The combined probability of me catching good and all 4 of them catching bad is (0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50) or 3%. Plus, I should probably discount the number of available “good” cards for me since my 4 opponents probably have 4 to 8 of my outs in their hole cards.
So in almost all cases, I’ll still be behind on 4th street and facing another bet. Therefore, I should be prepared to call both a bet on 3rd street and 4th street. If I add up both calls and estimate the size of the pot on 4th street, I’m only getting like 4 to 1 on my calls.
Then, in almost all cases, I’m still behind on 4th street – but with a good draw….which I’ll need to come through. Plus, all of this doesn’t even account for the case where a couple of players squeeze me in the middle of a betting war.
All that said, I think the best play is to fold an (A-2)-K in Razz when facing a completed bet – even if it is painful to muck a beautiful Ace-Duece.
Agree? No? Is this too easy?
I know it’s kinda weak, but I just passed another small milestone ($6000 in career poker winnings). I wish I had it all in a cash box somewhere – I’d head to Vegas.
I’ve got a razz question if anyone would like to opine.
This hand came up in a $5 HORSE SNG last night – I’m a big fan of these.
I bring it in ($14) with a King up and an A-2 in the hole. We get 3 limpers with a 6, 7, and 8 respectively. Then, the guy directly to my right completes the bet ($40) with an Ace up.
Action is to me.
After having mis-played this type of hand many times, I now believe this is a clear fold situation.
Here’s my thinking.
I’m getting like 7 to 1 on my call at this point (if the 3 limpers behind me call…which they will); however, I’m going to need to catch a good card on 4th street and hope that all 4 of my opponents catch bad to feel comfortable continuing with the hand. If this would happen, it would be the “dream street”. Do you know what the odds of me catching good and 4 players all catching bad are?
Well, I could catch a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. This gives me 21 good cards out of 42 unseen – 50%. (I’ll ignore bluffing cards, like a deuce, for both me an my opponents)
My opponents could catch a K, Q, J, 10, 9, or pair their door card. This gives them 23 bad cards out of 42 unseen for around 50%.
The combined probability of me catching good and all 4 of them catching bad is (0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50) or 3%. Plus, I should probably discount the number of available “good” cards for me since my 4 opponents probably have 4 to 8 of my outs in their hole cards.
So in almost all cases, I’ll still be behind on 4th street and facing another bet. Therefore, I should be prepared to call both a bet on 3rd street and 4th street. If I add up both calls and estimate the size of the pot on 4th street, I’m only getting like 4 to 1 on my calls.
Then, in almost all cases, I’m still behind on 4th street – but with a good draw….which I’ll need to come through. Plus, all of this doesn’t even account for the case where a couple of players squeeze me in the middle of a betting war.
All that said, I think the best play is to fold an (A-2)-K in Razz when facing a completed bet – even if it is painful to muck a beautiful Ace-Duece.
Agree? No? Is this too easy?
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Gotcha Great Blue Heron
So after going 0 for 3 at the Great Blue Heron Casino (north of Toronto), I finally got a win.
I played $5/$10 limit Hold'Em - Canadian (equals $5.15/$10.30 U.S).
I played for 3 hours, won 2 pots and chopped 1 pot in those 3 hours, and won $155 Canadian. The pots were pretty big. The players were just as bad at this session as in the earlier 3 sessions.
In one pot, I got to put in 6 bets on the river against a real hot-head donkey type. The board was A-K-2-3-5 rainbow.
Quiz time. What could I hold that would allow me to put in 6 bets on the river? Not too hard to figure out is it?
After the fish calls my last bet and says something like, "I guess were chopping", he shows down A-4. I say, "I don't think so" as I take the pot with 4-6. I thought I might end up a victim of poker violence right then and there. He wanted to injure me. It was very fun.
I played $5/$10 limit Hold'Em - Canadian (equals $5.15/$10.30 U.S).
I played for 3 hours, won 2 pots and chopped 1 pot in those 3 hours, and won $155 Canadian. The pots were pretty big. The players were just as bad at this session as in the earlier 3 sessions.
In one pot, I got to put in 6 bets on the river against a real hot-head donkey type. The board was A-K-2-3-5 rainbow.
Quiz time. What could I hold that would allow me to put in 6 bets on the river? Not too hard to figure out is it?
After the fish calls my last bet and says something like, "I guess were chopping", he shows down A-4. I say, "I don't think so" as I take the pot with 4-6. I thought I might end up a victim of poker violence right then and there. He wanted to injure me. It was very fun.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
So Bad
So my experiment with 50 HORSE SNGs has cooled off a little. I’m down to just below a 50% cash rate. Still making a good ROI.
I played in a home tourney/cash game Saturday night. Went out 10th in the tourney. I played pretty good during the early stages (levels 1st, 2nd, and 3rd levels). I doubled my stack from 3500 to over 8000 by the time we down to 10 players – we started with 34.
On one hand, UTG limps, I over limp next with two 8s, and two more limped behind us. The small blind completes. Then, the big blind, who was short stacked and steaming (smarch), shoves for about 6x the big blind. The first limper folds. Action to me. Now the big blind’s range has to be narrowed down to, oh I don’t know, ANY TWO cards. So, I reraise 3x his bet to isolate. It works, we’re head’s up. He shows K-10 – I’m surprised to see a hand at the upper end of the range that I put him on. With all of the extra “juice” in the pot, I’m happy to be in a coin flip situation. I win with a boat over his flush.
Then, during the middle stages of the tournament, I played for like 2 hours with just 15 to 20 big blinds. I was playing pretty tight but knew I needed to switch gears. I just couldn’t find any resemblance of a hand when I was in position. Finally, when I was down to 15 BBs. I found a K-10 in the cutoff and raised. I get called by a station in the BB. I watched this guy call so many preflop raises from out of position and then just lead out at the flop that I though he probably thinks this is another steal opportunity….so I set up my re-steal plans. The flop comes A-10-x. The guy leads weak for about half pot. I wait a few seconds before I shove for a triple of his bet. He agonizes for a few minutes and calls. He shows A-6 and looks totally relived to see my bluff. Then he says, “man, I was sure I was out-kicked there”. I’m perplexed, “so why call then?” So bad!
I’m down $80.
Anyway, the cash game was much better. The cash game is really the feature event of the night. The tournament is just an $80 entry fee to the cash games.
We start playing $1/$1 blinds NLHE with $100 max stacks. Everyone buys in for max. I buy in lite for $60. I think there is an advantage to playing lite when everyone else is deep. If there would have been a few more people who bought in lite, I probably would have just bought in for the max.
Anyway, I loose my first stack. Down $140.
Then, things get interesting. The table decides to throw in a round of pot limit omaha on every other round.
During the first rotation of PLO (and I’m not exaggerating here), we must have had 25 all-ins. We had several multi-way all-ins with side pots everywhere. It was crazy. I saw a funny betting pattern about 3 hands in a row. It goes like this.
Limp, limp, raise, 3 bet, fold, call, call, call, call. Then the original raiser would re-pop it for like $65. Then the betting would (inexplicably) go call, call, call, fold, fold.
Nice.
There would be a $250 pot created preflop, and everyone had about $50 left behind to try to contest the pot post flop. The play was pretty bad.
Anyway, I was able to build my 2nd $60 buy in up to $430 before the table broke.
On one hand I limp in late position with K-K-K-Q (suited). This is a really bad hand. I was hoping to take it down post flop with just an overpair, or maybe I’d pick up some sort of broadway draw and bust someone with top 2 pair. Anyway the flop comes K-8-4 rainbow. A dream! The good fortune continues when I get someone to lead with a full pot bet into me. I re-pot, to protect a pretty thin hand. I get called. The turn is a 9 for a board of K-8-4-9 rainbow. I bet full pot again and take it down. Afterwards I show the three kings in my hand to match the one on the board. I say something like, “now that’s how you play a hand with 3 kings - you just need to flop the case king, make sure it is the top set, make sure there are no draws on the board on the flop, and make sure the turn doesn’t provide any additional draws. Kinda of a long shot, hu?”
Played for another couple of hours of $1/$2 blinds lost $20 and went home up $220 for the night (whoooo hoooo)!
Great fun.
Next I’m planning trip Canada tomorrow. May play some poker at the casino…probably not.
I played in a home tourney/cash game Saturday night. Went out 10th in the tourney. I played pretty good during the early stages (levels 1st, 2nd, and 3rd levels). I doubled my stack from 3500 to over 8000 by the time we down to 10 players – we started with 34.
On one hand, UTG limps, I over limp next with two 8s, and two more limped behind us. The small blind completes. Then, the big blind, who was short stacked and steaming (smarch), shoves for about 6x the big blind. The first limper folds. Action to me. Now the big blind’s range has to be narrowed down to, oh I don’t know, ANY TWO cards. So, I reraise 3x his bet to isolate. It works, we’re head’s up. He shows K-10 – I’m surprised to see a hand at the upper end of the range that I put him on. With all of the extra “juice” in the pot, I’m happy to be in a coin flip situation. I win with a boat over his flush.
Then, during the middle stages of the tournament, I played for like 2 hours with just 15 to 20 big blinds. I was playing pretty tight but knew I needed to switch gears. I just couldn’t find any resemblance of a hand when I was in position. Finally, when I was down to 15 BBs. I found a K-10 in the cutoff and raised. I get called by a station in the BB. I watched this guy call so many preflop raises from out of position and then just lead out at the flop that I though he probably thinks this is another steal opportunity….so I set up my re-steal plans. The flop comes A-10-x. The guy leads weak for about half pot. I wait a few seconds before I shove for a triple of his bet. He agonizes for a few minutes and calls. He shows A-6 and looks totally relived to see my bluff. Then he says, “man, I was sure I was out-kicked there”. I’m perplexed, “so why call then?” So bad!
I’m down $80.
Anyway, the cash game was much better. The cash game is really the feature event of the night. The tournament is just an $80 entry fee to the cash games.
We start playing $1/$1 blinds NLHE with $100 max stacks. Everyone buys in for max. I buy in lite for $60. I think there is an advantage to playing lite when everyone else is deep. If there would have been a few more people who bought in lite, I probably would have just bought in for the max.
Anyway, I loose my first stack. Down $140.
Then, things get interesting. The table decides to throw in a round of pot limit omaha on every other round.
During the first rotation of PLO (and I’m not exaggerating here), we must have had 25 all-ins. We had several multi-way all-ins with side pots everywhere. It was crazy. I saw a funny betting pattern about 3 hands in a row. It goes like this.
Limp, limp, raise, 3 bet, fold, call, call, call, call. Then the original raiser would re-pop it for like $65. Then the betting would (inexplicably) go call, call, call, fold, fold.
Nice.
There would be a $250 pot created preflop, and everyone had about $50 left behind to try to contest the pot post flop. The play was pretty bad.
Anyway, I was able to build my 2nd $60 buy in up to $430 before the table broke.
On one hand I limp in late position with K-K-K-Q (suited). This is a really bad hand. I was hoping to take it down post flop with just an overpair, or maybe I’d pick up some sort of broadway draw and bust someone with top 2 pair. Anyway the flop comes K-8-4 rainbow. A dream! The good fortune continues when I get someone to lead with a full pot bet into me. I re-pot, to protect a pretty thin hand. I get called. The turn is a 9 for a board of K-8-4-9 rainbow. I bet full pot again and take it down. Afterwards I show the three kings in my hand to match the one on the board. I say something like, “now that’s how you play a hand with 3 kings - you just need to flop the case king, make sure it is the top set, make sure there are no draws on the board on the flop, and make sure the turn doesn’t provide any additional draws. Kinda of a long shot, hu?”
Played for another couple of hours of $1/$2 blinds lost $20 and went home up $220 for the night (whoooo hoooo)!
Great fun.
Next I’m planning trip Canada tomorrow. May play some poker at the casino…probably not.
