Monday, March 24, 2008
More Razz and a New Milestone
Well, thanks to 4 winning sessions in a row, I’ve got my winnings chart headed in a northerly direction and I’m feeling pretty good.
I know it’s kinda weak, but I just passed another small milestone ($6000 in career poker winnings). I wish I had it all in a cash box somewhere – I’d head to Vegas.
I’ve got a razz question if anyone would like to opine.
This hand came up in a $5 HORSE SNG last night – I’m a big fan of these.
I bring it in ($14) with a King up and an A-2 in the hole. We get 3 limpers with a 6, 7, and 8 respectively. Then, the guy directly to my right completes the bet ($40) with an Ace up.
Action is to me.
After having mis-played this type of hand many times, I now believe this is a clear fold situation.
Here’s my thinking.
I’m getting like 7 to 1 on my call at this point (if the 3 limpers behind me call…which they will); however, I’m going to need to catch a good card on 4th street and hope that all 4 of my opponents catch bad to feel comfortable continuing with the hand. If this would happen, it would be the “dream street”. Do you know what the odds of me catching good and 4 players all catching bad are?
Well, I could catch a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. This gives me 21 good cards out of 42 unseen – 50%. (I’ll ignore bluffing cards, like a deuce, for both me an my opponents)
My opponents could catch a K, Q, J, 10, 9, or pair their door card. This gives them 23 bad cards out of 42 unseen for around 50%.
The combined probability of me catching good and all 4 of them catching bad is (0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50) or 3%. Plus, I should probably discount the number of available “good” cards for me since my 4 opponents probably have 4 to 8 of my outs in their hole cards.
So in almost all cases, I’ll still be behind on 4th street and facing another bet. Therefore, I should be prepared to call both a bet on 3rd street and 4th street. If I add up both calls and estimate the size of the pot on 4th street, I’m only getting like 4 to 1 on my calls.
Then, in almost all cases, I’m still behind on 4th street – but with a good draw….which I’ll need to come through. Plus, all of this doesn’t even account for the case where a couple of players squeeze me in the middle of a betting war.
All that said, I think the best play is to fold an (A-2)-K in Razz when facing a completed bet – even if it is painful to muck a beautiful Ace-Duece.
Agree? No? Is this too easy?
I know it’s kinda weak, but I just passed another small milestone ($6000 in career poker winnings). I wish I had it all in a cash box somewhere – I’d head to Vegas.
I’ve got a razz question if anyone would like to opine.
This hand came up in a $5 HORSE SNG last night – I’m a big fan of these.
I bring it in ($14) with a King up and an A-2 in the hole. We get 3 limpers with a 6, 7, and 8 respectively. Then, the guy directly to my right completes the bet ($40) with an Ace up.
Action is to me.
After having mis-played this type of hand many times, I now believe this is a clear fold situation.
Here’s my thinking.
I’m getting like 7 to 1 on my call at this point (if the 3 limpers behind me call…which they will); however, I’m going to need to catch a good card on 4th street and hope that all 4 of my opponents catch bad to feel comfortable continuing with the hand. If this would happen, it would be the “dream street”. Do you know what the odds of me catching good and 4 players all catching bad are?
Well, I could catch a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. This gives me 21 good cards out of 42 unseen – 50%. (I’ll ignore bluffing cards, like a deuce, for both me an my opponents)
My opponents could catch a K, Q, J, 10, 9, or pair their door card. This gives them 23 bad cards out of 42 unseen for around 50%.
The combined probability of me catching good and all 4 of them catching bad is (0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50) or 3%. Plus, I should probably discount the number of available “good” cards for me since my 4 opponents probably have 4 to 8 of my outs in their hole cards.
So in almost all cases, I’ll still be behind on 4th street and facing another bet. Therefore, I should be prepared to call both a bet on 3rd street and 4th street. If I add up both calls and estimate the size of the pot on 4th street, I’m only getting like 4 to 1 on my calls.
Then, in almost all cases, I’m still behind on 4th street – but with a good draw….which I’ll need to come through. Plus, all of this doesn’t even account for the case where a couple of players squeeze me in the middle of a betting war.
All that said, I think the best play is to fold an (A-2)-K in Razz when facing a completed bet – even if it is painful to muck a beautiful Ace-Duece.
Agree? No? Is this too easy?
Comments:
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hey Jon,
congrats on the $6k.
about the razz hand, i'd fold. i don't know about all the fancy math but i know razz is a betting game and your king in the door is pretty bad for you.
by calling, you're putting yourself in spot where you're hoping that everyone catches bad and that you catch good and even if that happens, you're probably still behind.
congrats on the $6k.
about the razz hand, i'd fold. i don't know about all the fancy math but i know razz is a betting game and your king in the door is pretty bad for you.
by calling, you're putting yourself in spot where you're hoping that everyone catches bad and that you catch good and even if that happens, you're probably still behind.
# posted by 
: 8:38 AM
: 8:38 AM
Also, you don't really have any bluffing cards, most good players will put you on precisely A2 or A3 in the hole, that beind said I am still torn.
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