Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Back in the Saddle
So I climbed back in the poker saddle this last Friday. It’s been 4 weeks since I last played and I was starting to get the willies a little from not playing. Anyway, I got a little fix for my habit.
I had a good night. We played $1/$2 limit poker; mostly Hold’em, but with some rounds of other games mixed in ( Omaha hi/lo, Stud, Stud 8, and Pineapple).
I won $107. Woooo Hooo!. This was amazing considering we were playing low limit poker and I was playing with pretty good players. I have to attribute this winning session to catching good cards. I laid some pretty good beats on several of the players. You know what? I don’t really feel that bad about it either.
My favorite two beats included catching a 3 outer on the river in Hold'Em to lay a sick one on Brandon. Then, in a duece to seven hand I played, I threw away my made 9-7-5-4-2 on the 3rd draw after standing pat on the 2nd draw. I caught a perfect card a laid a sick one on Babcock. Then, I declared, "Uh, I've got a 7,5,4,3,2" and was admonished by the table for not recogonizing this hand as the ultimate nuts. In my defense, that was about the 10th hand of duece to seven triple draw that I've played in my life.
Anyway, I have 3 topics to discuss on this post.
First, Dennis Johnson, the long-time point guard for the Celtics died this last week. He was 52. I guess he just sort of dropped dead outside of a training facility for a NBA developmental league team that he was coaching. I don’t know about the rest of you, but 52 is way too young to die. I guess it must because I’m old enough that I can imagine the day in my not too distant future when I too will be 52. This story sort of hits ya. I guess I better play more poker while I still have some time left.
Second, imagine for a minute that you were going to make online poker your business – your primary source of income. How would you do it? What tools would you use? What strategies would you use? Do you need a business plan? Financing? Employees? Incentive plans? Tax strategies? Etc…
Anyway, I got a glimpse into the business of online poker the other night. It looks like these guys have already figured most of this stuff out. I was quite impressed.
Third, there was this real obnoxious French dude in seat 5. He spoke with broken English, walked with a gimp, and had an affinity for spider monkeys. He was pretending like he didn’t know too much about Omaha hi/lo, when he asked the table an interesting question. He asked, in a really irratating French accent, ‘zif I have de low only hand, zhould I be raising on every street or zhould I just be calling all de way?”
The table consensus (although not too enthusiastic) was that if you have a low only hand, you should probably just call all the way and not raise - after all, you might be getting quartered.
A few hands later, that philosophical position was put to the test. I don't remember the exact details so I'll embellish a little.
I was in the BB with 2-3-x-x. Four of us took a look at the flop of A-8-8. With the nut low draw, I thought I could take the pot right here with a semi bluff, so I led out. Brandon was second to act, he raises. Surprisingly, the 2 other players both call 2 bets cold. I call as well. The turn was a 4 making a board of Ax-8x-8x-4x. This gave me the nut low. I check, Brandon bets, it goes call, call, action to me. I call. There is now 8 big bets in the pot. The river was a meaningless K making the board Ax-8x-8x-4x-Kx. I check, Brandon leads out again, it goes call, call, action to me.
So, I followed the advice we had given to the French gimp a few hands ealier - I call. I showed down the nut low and split a pot with Brandon that had 12 big bets.
So I got to thinking, "What would have been the Expected Value from a raise on the river?" Let's do some math.
Situation 1 - I raise on the river and everyone calls. To figure out my EV, I'll need to estimate all of the possible outcomes. I assigned the following probabilities (0% that I scoop this pot, 75% that a take the low half, 25% that I get quartered). My EV then is (.75 x 1 extra bet x 3 player x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 1 extra bet x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 1.3125 bets. So I'd invest 1 extra bet and expect to make 1.3125 bets in return. This is a net of .3125 bets and a 31% return on investment. Not too shabby.
Situation 2 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets, action goes call/call to me, I cap it and it goes call, call, call. Now my EV is (.75 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 3.9375 bets. So I'd invest 3 extra bets and expect to make 3.9375 bets in return. This is a net of .9375 bets. Not too shabby. Limit poker is all about making that extra bet.
Situation 3 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets and knocks everyone out, action goes fold, fold to me. I call. Now my EV is (.75 x 2 extra bets x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 2 extra bets x 25% of the pot) = .875 bets. So I'd invest 2 extra bets and expect to make .875 bets in return. This is a net of -1.125 bets. Ouch!
The Bottom Line:
Now, if I assign the following probabilies for situations 1, 2, and 3 happening (situation 1 = 50%, situation 2 = 25%, situation 3 = 25%) my combined EV of raising on the river is ((.5 x.3125)+(.25*.9375)+(.25*-1.125)) or +0.11 bets
To Sum it All Up:
This is a pretty "thin" advantage to raising on the river with a low only hand in a 4 way pot. As you can imagine, this small advantage turns negative if the pot is only 3 handed or if your chance of getting quartered is increased (i.e., your playing at a tight table).
However, this advantage is much more positive if you have any chance of scooping. In essense, if the pot is 4 handed on the river, your raises/reraises with a low only hand is a sort of free-roll if you have a chance to scoop (i.e., bottom 2 pair).
For example, instead of the 0% probability of scooping I used in the above scenario, if I use the following probabilities (8% to scoop, 67% to take the low half only, 25% to take a quarter). The EV of raising/reraising on the river is goes way up to .3 bets.
It looks like raising with a low only hand when the pot is contested 4 handed on the river is a positive EV play....so raise it up...."MORE!"
I had a good night. We played $1/$2 limit poker; mostly Hold’em, but with some rounds of other games mixed in ( Omaha hi/lo, Stud, Stud 8, and Pineapple).
I won $107. Woooo Hooo!. This was amazing considering we were playing low limit poker and I was playing with pretty good players. I have to attribute this winning session to catching good cards. I laid some pretty good beats on several of the players. You know what? I don’t really feel that bad about it either.
My favorite two beats included catching a 3 outer on the river in Hold'Em to lay a sick one on Brandon. Then, in a duece to seven hand I played, I threw away my made 9-7-5-4-2 on the 3rd draw after standing pat on the 2nd draw. I caught a perfect card a laid a sick one on Babcock. Then, I declared, "Uh, I've got a 7,5,4,3,2" and was admonished by the table for not recogonizing this hand as the ultimate nuts. In my defense, that was about the 10th hand of duece to seven triple draw that I've played in my life.
Anyway, I have 3 topics to discuss on this post.
First, Dennis Johnson, the long-time point guard for the Celtics died this last week. He was 52. I guess he just sort of dropped dead outside of a training facility for a NBA developmental league team that he was coaching. I don’t know about the rest of you, but 52 is way too young to die. I guess it must because I’m old enough that I can imagine the day in my not too distant future when I too will be 52. This story sort of hits ya. I guess I better play more poker while I still have some time left.
Second, imagine for a minute that you were going to make online poker your business – your primary source of income. How would you do it? What tools would you use? What strategies would you use? Do you need a business plan? Financing? Employees? Incentive plans? Tax strategies? Etc…
Anyway, I got a glimpse into the business of online poker the other night. It looks like these guys have already figured most of this stuff out. I was quite impressed.
Third, there was this real obnoxious French dude in seat 5. He spoke with broken English, walked with a gimp, and had an affinity for spider monkeys. He was pretending like he didn’t know too much about Omaha hi/lo, when he asked the table an interesting question. He asked, in a really irratating French accent, ‘zif I have de low only hand, zhould I be raising on every street or zhould I just be calling all de way?”
The table consensus (although not too enthusiastic) was that if you have a low only hand, you should probably just call all the way and not raise - after all, you might be getting quartered.
A few hands later, that philosophical position was put to the test. I don't remember the exact details so I'll embellish a little.
I was in the BB with 2-3-x-x. Four of us took a look at the flop of A-8-8. With the nut low draw, I thought I could take the pot right here with a semi bluff, so I led out. Brandon was second to act, he raises. Surprisingly, the 2 other players both call 2 bets cold. I call as well. The turn was a 4 making a board of Ax-8x-8x-4x. This gave me the nut low. I check, Brandon bets, it goes call, call, action to me. I call. There is now 8 big bets in the pot. The river was a meaningless K making the board Ax-8x-8x-4x-Kx. I check, Brandon leads out again, it goes call, call, action to me.
So, I followed the advice we had given to the French gimp a few hands ealier - I call. I showed down the nut low and split a pot with Brandon that had 12 big bets.
So I got to thinking, "What would have been the Expected Value from a raise on the river?" Let's do some math.
Situation 1 - I raise on the river and everyone calls. To figure out my EV, I'll need to estimate all of the possible outcomes. I assigned the following probabilities (0% that I scoop this pot, 75% that a take the low half, 25% that I get quartered). My EV then is (.75 x 1 extra bet x 3 player x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 1 extra bet x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 1.3125 bets. So I'd invest 1 extra bet and expect to make 1.3125 bets in return. This is a net of .3125 bets and a 31% return on investment. Not too shabby.
Situation 2 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets, action goes call/call to me, I cap it and it goes call, call, call. Now my EV is (.75 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 3 extra bets x 3 players x 25% of the pot) = 3.9375 bets. So I'd invest 3 extra bets and expect to make 3.9375 bets in return. This is a net of .9375 bets. Not too shabby. Limit poker is all about making that extra bet.
Situation 3 - I raise on the river, Brandon 3 bets and knocks everyone out, action goes fold, fold to me. I call. Now my EV is (.75 x 2 extra bets x 50% of the pot) + (.25 x 2 extra bets x 25% of the pot) = .875 bets. So I'd invest 2 extra bets and expect to make .875 bets in return. This is a net of -1.125 bets. Ouch!
The Bottom Line:
Now, if I assign the following probabilies for situations 1, 2, and 3 happening (situation 1 = 50%, situation 2 = 25%, situation 3 = 25%) my combined EV of raising on the river is ((.5 x.3125)+(.25*.9375)+(.25*-1.125)) or +0.11 bets
To Sum it All Up:
This is a pretty "thin" advantage to raising on the river with a low only hand in a 4 way pot. As you can imagine, this small advantage turns negative if the pot is only 3 handed or if your chance of getting quartered is increased (i.e., your playing at a tight table).
However, this advantage is much more positive if you have any chance of scooping. In essense, if the pot is 4 handed on the river, your raises/reraises with a low only hand is a sort of free-roll if you have a chance to scoop (i.e., bottom 2 pair).
For example, instead of the 0% probability of scooping I used in the above scenario, if I use the following probabilities (8% to scoop, 67% to take the low half only, 25% to take a quarter). The EV of raising/reraising on the river is goes way up to .3 bets.
It looks like raising with a low only hand when the pot is contested 4 handed on the river is a positive EV play....so raise it up...."MORE!"
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Kick Ass Poker Table
So I need to build another poker table.
1) permanent legs - no cheap looking folding legs.
I've tried various options, materials, techniques in the past. These have all been "training" for building a real table.
Now, it's time to build a totally kick ass table. This table needs to be the one that everyone says, "hey man, this table totally kicks ass!" It's time to put up or shut up. Time to step up or step back.
Here's the features that will be included. I'm looking for a little feedback here. What makes a totally kick ass table?
1) permanent legs - no cheap looking folding legs.2) use 1/4 velorum for the padding of the playing surface. This is the perfect density for a poker table. It lets you do that chip bounce trick and still construct towers of chips 40 high without worry. This is especially useful for players like me who tend to collect so many chips that they have difficulty stacking them high enough.
3) use the suited speed cloth. Nothing else really compares (although I have seen some website offer some high tech- micro fiber crap that looks kind of interesting)
4) must have cup holders built into the padded railing.
5) no racetrack - racetracks suck. They get in the way, the chips slide all over the place.
6) need a nice curved, decorated 3" rim around the bottom of the table (similar to that found on most dining tables). This gives the table that "I'm a real piece of furniture bitch" look.
7) The padded rail should be very stiff - just like at the casino. Must use 1" velorum. The upholstery job should be very, very tight and neat. After I lay a sick beat on Scott Smith and he slams his fists into the padded rail, I don't really want much of an indentation. In addition, after Joel rests his head in his hands and buries his elbows in the padded rail in disbelief over his run of bad cards, I'd like it to be nice and comfortable for him. I'd like him to say something like, "man, this is the worst run of cards I've ever had, but you know what? This padded rail sure is comfortable"
8) The playing surface should be recessed a little from the padded rail. You want that look of playing cards down in an arena like you see on televised poker. It should give you the feel of being a gladiator who has been cast into an ancient roman arena to do battle with 8 or 9 other evil villains.
9) I need a built in, under the table, locking drawer for cash game chips. This way the banker, me, can keep a nice stash of cash game chips at the table without them being on the table. This way I won't screw up my accounting and I won't unnecessarily alarm any would be player that these are actually the chips I've won. Plus, as you've probably noticed, I make such a high hourly rate playing cash games, that trips back and forth to get more chips really costs me dearly.
10) Finally, need to personalize the playing surface with Husker House logo stuff. So many players have commented about how much they really enjoy playing hours of poker staring at the big Nebraska "N" all night. I don't want to disappoint them. But this time, the logo and playing surface will be totally professional. I'm going to send away for a special die sublimation process that really looks top of the line.
That's it any other features that I need to include?
Monday, February 19, 2007
Weekend from Hell - not really.
This last Sunday, I experience a series of unfortunate events that can only be described as weird. At first I thought this was just a weekend from hell. Now that I look back on it, it was kind of comical.To set the stage, I need to go back to Saturday night. My daughter Emma had tonsil surgery and was due to arrive home around 6p from the hospital. My wife took her to the surgery.
I stayed home with my 3 boys. To make Emma's arrival as quite and peaceful as possible, I decided to take my boys to dinner around 6p. As we deliberated our various dining options (keep in mind, I'm discussing "dining options" with a 7, 10, and 14 year old - how smart is that?), we decided we wanted to do something "fun". Finally, we landed on Mongolian Barbecue. I thought, "this'll be fun. We'll get to make our own creations!"
Dinner was a fiasco. My oldest son hemmed and hawed, brewed and stewed. He only wanted a hamburger/fries. He complained for a solid 45 minutes and refused to try anything. We were seated about 10 feet from the front door and had to wear our coats during dinner to keep the hypothermia at bay. My son Luke, tried to carry about 30 oz. of raw food in the 20 oz. container they give you. The place was crowded (who'da guessed on a Saturday night). Bumping occurred. Raw steak, chicken and shrimp were spread across the floor. Not a good scene.
Then, after I arrived home, my oldest son whined and whined and finally talked me into taking him out for his burger/fries.
Finally, I get home around 9p. I'm wiped!
Now on Sunday it starts to go downhill a little from there.
So my daughter Emma is resting comfortably downstairs. She won't take her medicine though. After some arguing, we finally decide that we must "force" the action a little. Well, Emma has the last laugh as she pukes all over my hand and the bed.
No problem. I'll just wash the bedding. I just need to "roll with it".
Next, the washing machine breaks. It doesn't really break all the way. It only breaks part way. It will wash for about 10 minutes and then stop, pause, start beeping, and wait for me to reset it. This happens every 10 minutes. As I'm trying to "look into" fixing the washing machine, I kind of slide the dryer to the right a little.
This causes the vent on the back of the dryer to break apart and become disconnected. I know this because the laundry room soon started to feel like the sauna at the gym - not the dry sauna. I'm talking steam room here.
Meanwhile, my son Luke, who was having a "puzzle marathon" in the family room, starts to get a little mad at our cat, Zorro, for walking on his puzzles. Luke's solution to this problem is to lock the cat in my master bed room. I'm so proud of this ability to asses a situation and find an optimal solution - he'll make a good analyst some day.
So around 2p, I go upstairs, open the door. The cat comes sprinting out. This time Zorro got the last laugh. He crapped on my bed -on my side - and pissed all over the bed spread.
OK. I need to just roll with it. So, I'm off to the laundry room / steam room again where I can start spending 10 minute rotations watching the washing machine and resetting it.
I'm frazzled. I'm tilting hard. As a side note, I do feel a little relaxed though from spending all day in my new steam room.
I'm starting to feel pretty sorry for myself when I get a phone call.
A poker friend of mine calls. He heard that my daughter was having surgery and he just wanted to make sure everything was OK. I thought to myself, "how cool is that?". I have to admit - this was a really nice gesture. It made me feel good.
You know, for all of the evils that some people have assigned to poker and poker players, there's a part that's pretty good too.
I've met a lot of really cool, decent, genuinely nice people playing poker. I've formed freindships with more people playing poker than golf, bodybuilding, basketball, or any other hobby I've had. As a matter of fact, I can't think of a single person I've met playing poker that I'd say is a 'bad person'. The same can not be said for my work, my neighborhood, or even my family. Wow!
Friday, February 16, 2007
A Basic Truth - Scoooop!
You know how some things become so obvious and routine that after a while, you start to overlook them.
This probably isn’t all that interesting, but I think I rediscovered one of those “basic truths” after playing a few session of Limit Omaha 8 or better (LO8) online at Full Tilt over the last couple of weeks. I've had a pretty good run.
" You can only win money playing limit Omaha 8 if you SCOOP pots. This concept of the SCOOP is so important it can not be ignored. If you don’t SCOOP pots, you can not win. It’s that simple. "
I know, you probably already know this but,…here we go....
If you have some pretty solid starting hand standards (i.e., you only play hands with A2xx, A3xx if the ace is suited, any 4 wheel cards, or any 4 cards 10 or higher), you’ll still be entering a good number of pots. Since LO8 is mostly a “post flop” game, you’ll often see flops that will require that you make or call bets on the flop (i.e., you have A2xx and the flop comes with a 78xx). Frequently you’ll win ½ the pot and win a little money. Frequently, you’ll fold or loose the pot and loose a little money. All in all, you’ll break about even. If you play solid poker, and win your fair share of ½ pots, you’ll break about even for the session.
If you play like a donkey, and get scooped several times during the session, you’ll loose money (i.e., you hold A-3-7-8 rainbow and flop comes 4-4-8 and you start calling bets/raises from 2 other players in the hand). It’s absolutely imperative that you don’t put money in the pot on 3 streets and then watch the pot get pushed in 2 other directions. This will make you a loser for the session
The only way to make a consistent profit at LO8 is to SCOOP.
Having said that, I’m a big, big fan of jamming pots where I have excellent chance to scoop. Just one or two of these gigantic scooped pots can make up your entire profit for the session.
Some basic strategies that I use for jamming the pot:
(of course all of these don’t apply to all situations)
1) If you have an excellent scoop hand preflop (Ac-2c-Kd-Qd) and are first to act, limp. Limping will encourage limping. It might turn into a limp fest. With any luck the button will raise and you can 3 bet the field who will most certainly call 2 bets after they’ve already mentally committed to the hand. Even if the action is limped multi-way preflop, the pot is much bigger than if you open-raised from early position – which would tend to thin the field.
2) If you have an excellent scoop hand preflop and are last to act after several limpers, raise. No one is folding anyway after they already committed one bet. The blinds will call because they are getting an excellent price even for 2 bets. The pot will be enormous with 5 or 6 players each putting in 2 bets. This has a multiplier effect as no-one can really afford to fold for just one more small bet on the flop. You’ll usually have 80% of the field call your flop bet as well since players are usually getting around 10:1 or better on even their longest of draws.
3) If you find an excellent scooping hand post flop (i.e., you hold Ah-2h,3d-10c and the board reads 4c-5h-9h) – try to trap players in the middle. For example, if you are first to act and bet and then get called by 3 players and then get raised by the button, just call. You want those extra overcalls in the pot. Plus, you can run this same "play" on the turn as well – trapping everyone for 2 bets on the turn.
Another option is the use the check raise. But for this play to work, you have to be confident the player immediately to your left will open if you check. If you’re confident he’ll open the pot, you can check, watch everyone call and then raise when the action gets back to you. The risk is that when facing a raise, the player to your left may actually 3 bet the field and knock out some players - not too likely, but possible. Even so, if players fold to 3 bets, this dead money gives you a little more “scoop equity”. Another risk of going for the check raise, is that it’ll be checked to the button who’ll open. Now you can't raise because you will certainly knock out a good portion of the field that just checked and would be facing 2 bets cold.
For those reason, I really like to open in this spot as opposed to going for the check-raise.
4) Another version of trapping - If you find an excellent scooping hand post flop (i.e., you hold Ah-2h,3d-10c and the board reads 4c-5h-9h) and are last to act. If there is an early bet and several overcalls, raise. No one will fold – don’t worry. Plus you communicate to the guy who opened the pot that you can be relied upon to raise on the turn. He may actually pick up on this "read" and lead out at you again on the turn hoping to trap callers in the middle for 2 bets when you come through with a raise from last position.
This probably isn’t all that interesting, but I think I rediscovered one of those “basic truths” after playing a few session of Limit Omaha 8 or better (LO8) online at Full Tilt over the last couple of weeks. I've had a pretty good run.
" You can only win money playing limit Omaha 8 if you SCOOP pots. This concept of the SCOOP is so important it can not be ignored. If you don’t SCOOP pots, you can not win. It’s that simple. "
I know, you probably already know this but,…here we go....
If you have some pretty solid starting hand standards (i.e., you only play hands with A2xx, A3xx if the ace is suited, any 4 wheel cards, or any 4 cards 10 or higher), you’ll still be entering a good number of pots. Since LO8 is mostly a “post flop” game, you’ll often see flops that will require that you make or call bets on the flop (i.e., you have A2xx and the flop comes with a 78xx). Frequently you’ll win ½ the pot and win a little money. Frequently, you’ll fold or loose the pot and loose a little money. All in all, you’ll break about even. If you play solid poker, and win your fair share of ½ pots, you’ll break about even for the session.
If you play like a donkey, and get scooped several times during the session, you’ll loose money (i.e., you hold A-3-7-8 rainbow and flop comes 4-4-8 and you start calling bets/raises from 2 other players in the hand). It’s absolutely imperative that you don’t put money in the pot on 3 streets and then watch the pot get pushed in 2 other directions. This will make you a loser for the session
The only way to make a consistent profit at LO8 is to SCOOP.
Having said that, I’m a big, big fan of jamming pots where I have excellent chance to scoop. Just one or two of these gigantic scooped pots can make up your entire profit for the session.
Some basic strategies that I use for jamming the pot:
(of course all of these don’t apply to all situations)
1) If you have an excellent scoop hand preflop (Ac-2c-Kd-Qd) and are first to act, limp. Limping will encourage limping. It might turn into a limp fest. With any luck the button will raise and you can 3 bet the field who will most certainly call 2 bets after they’ve already mentally committed to the hand. Even if the action is limped multi-way preflop, the pot is much bigger than if you open-raised from early position – which would tend to thin the field.
2) If you have an excellent scoop hand preflop and are last to act after several limpers, raise. No one is folding anyway after they already committed one bet. The blinds will call because they are getting an excellent price even for 2 bets. The pot will be enormous with 5 or 6 players each putting in 2 bets. This has a multiplier effect as no-one can really afford to fold for just one more small bet on the flop. You’ll usually have 80% of the field call your flop bet as well since players are usually getting around 10:1 or better on even their longest of draws.
3) If you find an excellent scooping hand post flop (i.e., you hold Ah-2h,3d-10c and the board reads 4c-5h-9h) – try to trap players in the middle. For example, if you are first to act and bet and then get called by 3 players and then get raised by the button, just call. You want those extra overcalls in the pot. Plus, you can run this same "play" on the turn as well – trapping everyone for 2 bets on the turn.
Another option is the use the check raise. But for this play to work, you have to be confident the player immediately to your left will open if you check. If you’re confident he’ll open the pot, you can check, watch everyone call and then raise when the action gets back to you. The risk is that when facing a raise, the player to your left may actually 3 bet the field and knock out some players - not too likely, but possible. Even so, if players fold to 3 bets, this dead money gives you a little more “scoop equity”. Another risk of going for the check raise, is that it’ll be checked to the button who’ll open. Now you can't raise because you will certainly knock out a good portion of the field that just checked and would be facing 2 bets cold.
For those reason, I really like to open in this spot as opposed to going for the check-raise.
4) Another version of trapping - If you find an excellent scooping hand post flop (i.e., you hold Ah-2h,3d-10c and the board reads 4c-5h-9h) and are last to act. If there is an early bet and several overcalls, raise. No one will fold – don’t worry. Plus you communicate to the guy who opened the pot that you can be relied upon to raise on the turn. He may actually pick up on this "read" and lead out at you again on the turn hoping to trap callers in the middle for 2 bets when you come through with a raise from last position.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Springtime in Vegas
Is there anything going wrong in life that would not be fixed with a ....
Springtime trip to Las Vegas?
I don't know about you, but the calling is getting stronger and stronger everyday.
Springtime trip to Las Vegas?
I don't know about you, but the calling is getting stronger and stronger everyday.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Down but not Out
So I've been down with a pretty nasty cold the last few days. I've pretty much just lounged around doing next to nothing....which I hate.
Up to this point, I've been keeping busy during the weekday evenings lately by finishing my formal dining room. I haven't had much energy or time to play any online poker. I've probably been on a 5-6 week hiatus.
So I warmed up the laptop and jumped back in the game and played some H.O.R.S.E SnGs on Full Tilt. Let me tell ya, it was just like riding a bike.
One win, two seconds, and a loss. Not bad!
One interesting hand came up during the last session. I didn't do anything too special except catch a miracle river card. The game was Omaha 8. I held the 4h-5h-x-x. In any case, we got 4 bets in on both the turn and the river. I made a wheel and then improved to a straight flush and was able to scoop a nice pot as I cracked a guy's rivered quads. The only reason I played the hand is that we were just about to end round 2 and I hadn't played a hand. I figured I better play one.
Anyway can you imagine the feeling of the other 2 players in this hand? I've been there. It sucks pretty bad - for them.
Up to this point, I've been keeping busy during the weekday evenings lately by finishing my formal dining room. I haven't had much energy or time to play any online poker. I've probably been on a 5-6 week hiatus.
So I warmed up the laptop and jumped back in the game and played some H.O.R.S.E SnGs on Full Tilt. Let me tell ya, it was just like riding a bike.
One win, two seconds, and a loss. Not bad!
One interesting hand came up during the last session. I didn't do anything too special except catch a miracle river card. The game was Omaha 8. I held the 4h-5h-x-x. In any case, we got 4 bets in on both the turn and the river. I made a wheel and then improved to a straight flush and was able to scoop a nice pot as I cracked a guy's rivered quads. The only reason I played the hand is that we were just about to end round 2 and I hadn't played a hand. I figured I better play one.
Anyway can you imagine the feeling of the other 2 players in this hand? I've been there. It sucks pretty bad - for them.
Thursday, February 08, 2007
HORSE Blind Schedule
So I need to build a H.O.R.S.E. blind schedule for an upcoming tournament.
Usually, when I build a blind schedule I start with a pretty established shedule (like WSOP) and then tweak it a little. So, I pulled the WSOP H.O.R.S.E blind schedule and I noticed it had some "issues."
To understand what I mean by "issues", you only need to look at the WSOP No Limit Hold'Em blind schedule. I figure that the people who put this thing together, probably know an awful lot about what they are doing. The features of the WSOP NLHE blind schedule are as follows.
Blinds start at 25/25 (so they can avoid using red chips)
The blinds progressively escalate and are in increments that match chip denominations
Antes kick in on the 5th round
Round to round increases are usually between 20% and 60%
It is somethime helpful to depict the blind schedule visually. So at the risk of being called a "chart-aholic", I put the following chart together to visually display the WSOP NLHE blind schedule. The red line depicts the round-to-round increases in "CPR". CPR is cost per round and represents that amount it costs you to sit and fold hands each round. For example, round 9 has a $100 ante, so it will cost you $1000 (10 hands @ $100) plus $1200 ($400 small blind and $800 big blind). The blue line represents the CPR.
Usually, when I build a blind schedule I start with a pretty established shedule (like WSOP) and then tweak it a little. So, I pulled the WSOP H.O.R.S.E blind schedule and I noticed it had some "issues."
To understand what I mean by "issues", you only need to look at the WSOP No Limit Hold'Em blind schedule. I figure that the people who put this thing together, probably know an awful lot about what they are doing. The features of the WSOP NLHE blind schedule are as follows.
Blinds start at 25/25 (so they can avoid using red chips)
The blinds progressively escalate and are in increments that match chip denominations
Antes kick in on the 5th round
Round to round increases are usually between 20% and 60%
It is somethime helpful to depict the blind schedule visually. So at the risk of being called a "chart-aholic", I put the following chart together to visually display the WSOP NLHE blind schedule. The red line depicts the round-to-round increases in "CPR". CPR is cost per round and represents that amount it costs you to sit and fold hands each round. For example, round 9 has a $100 ante, so it will cost you $1000 (10 hands @ $100) plus $1200 ($400 small blind and $800 big blind). The blue line represents the CPR.
You'll notice on the WSOP H.O.R.S.E schedule several of the round-to-round increase are pretty big (more than 100%). Each of the Razz rounds are substantiall more "expensive" than the previous round - primarily as a result of antes. Plus the later rounds (28 and higher) look a little strange.
So I got to tweaking a little. I've heard so much feedback from players at my home tourney that they hate round-to-round increase of more than 60%. What do you guys think about this one? Should we just play with the WSOP H.O.R.S.E. schedule or use the JJ modified H.O.R.S.E schedule?
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Future Poker SuperStars
You’ll all be glad to know the future of poker is alive and well.
I had about 25 teenage boys at my house this Sunday for a Super Bowl party. Besides the main attraction, the Super Bowl, I was able to offer a foosball tournament, darts, bumper pool, ping pong, and a poker tournament.
These kids are pretty ‘high energy’ so sitting for 3 hours to watch the game would be a stretch, but I still thought that the Super Bowl would be the main attraction and the other games would be mostly for half-time and during time-outs.
As it turns out, poker, by far, was the most popular activity. I was planning to run just one single table tournament at half time. The kids were just too impatient. They ran one tournament on their own before I could kick off the ‘official’ tournament.
Seating for the main tournament was in high demand. I was able to accommodate 9 players and had to turn down about 10 others.
Surprisingly, most of these kids know how to play Texas Hold’em. They knew how to post blinds, how to read the board, how to act in turn, etc…
It was a pretty fun tournament. Just so you know, I did not ask them to kick in an entry fee (that might be considered corruption of a minor). The prize pool was completely donated by the Husker House Casino management staff.
Play Critique/Recap:
(1) They play way too passively. I saw one player check and call all the way to the river with Kings and win a nice pot. On the last hand of the night, the eventual 2nd place winner check/called with Aces on the flop and turn. He was beat when the tournament winner rivered a 5 outer to beat him.
(2) Poor chip management. Players didn’t really seem to understand how many chips they had left in relation to the blinds. 3 players actually had to post a short blind because they left themselves with too few chips to post a full blind.
(3) Overcalling. It was not unusual to have 3 over callers on the flop. On one flop, the Small Blind led out and got 5 callers. On the turn, he led out again. Once again, 5 callers. On the river, he led out again. This time 4 callers. The fifth would-be caller was sitting right beside me. He was agonizing about calling. He sort of looked at me for some advice. I said, “I don’t know what cards you’re holding, but there’s really no chance in hell your hand is any good here. He finally folded.
(4) Weak bluffs. I was kind of surprised that, as a group, the players were so passive, but we saw a surprisingly high number of bluff attempts. The problem was that the bluff attempts were pretty weak. For example on one hand the post flop betting was $100, call, call. On the turn, it went $200, call, call. On the river, it went check, check, $50. This was probably a good spot for a bluff, but $50 was just too weak.
I don’t have any useful strategy insights from dealing for these teenagers. But, I did listen recently to a good podcast from Annie Duke on playing in a charity tournament with a bunch of beginners. She discusses her idea of optimal strategy in playing with beginners. I’m convinced it would have worked like a mint in this situation. If a player had used her advice, I’m certain they would have won the tournament. You should check out this podcast.
The only useful observation was that it looks like there is a whole new crop of Poker Superstar wannabes entering the pipeline. Hopefully, they’ll work at McDonalds and Foot Locker, earn a few hundred bucks and then re-distribute these dollars throughout the poker economy. This will not only ensure the continued popularity of the game, but with any luck, I’ll actually be able to collect a few of these dollars as they flow through the system.
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Let's chop one last time
On some early posts I talked about the prize chop that frequently happens at the end of poker tournaments. This whole topic seems like more of theoretical problem than a practical problem. But, I find the topic sort of interesting, so I really dug into it.
Straight Distribution. Most players probably have a decent understanding of the "straight distribution" method for chopping money. This method is intuitive and works pretty well when the remaining players in a tournament have fairly close stack sizes (all within 30% to 60% of the total chips in play). This method can be calculated easily. The drawback is that it gives too much equity to the chip leader and the calculations start to break down when the chip leader has 70% or more of the chips in play.
Burns-Landrum. An alternate method for determining chop amount is the Burns-Landrum model. This model fixes the some of the problems of the straight distribution method, but it's too difficult to calculate and it has an unfair bias toward the short stack.
Prize Probability. I was directed to a model (by Brandon) that adequately solves the problem (no errors for short stacks or large stacks). This model determines, based on the chips that you have, the probability of you winning each prize. Your chop amount is the combined probabilities of winning each prize amount. The shortcoming of this model is that you need a computer to figure it out.
JJ Method What if you had a model that had no bias, and was easy to use? Check out the chart below (patent pending). Imagine that you print this chart and stick it in your wallet. Then, if you end up in a chop situation, you can use to determine where you should start your negotiations with the other players.
Here's how it works. I'm looking for feedback here!
First, you need to determine your proportion of the total chips in play. This should be no big deal. Almost all chop deals begin with a count of chips. To do this, just add up all of the remaining players chips (including yours). Then, divide your chip count by the total.
Next you need to determine which prize "line" on the attached chart most closely matches the prize structure of the tournament. For example, if there are three prizes left (675, 425, 275), simply add them up and divide each prize by the total. In this example the total prize pool is 1375. Top prize is 675/1375 or around 50%. 2nd prize is 425/1375 or around 30%. 3rd prize is 275/1375 or around 20%. So the prize structure is pretty close to 50/30/20.
To determine your chop amount simply follow a line straight up from your chip proportion to the line that most closely matches the prize structure of the tournament. Then, follow that line straight across. Bingo, that is the proportion of the overall prize pool that you are due.
An example. After a chip count, you find that you have 65% of the chips in play. You and 2 other players are chopping the top 3 prizes ($1375 in total) that looks alot like a 50/30/20 split. Draw a line straight up from 65% until it hits the dark blue line. Then draw a line horizontally. It looks like you should be "due" about 45% of the total prize pool or about $620 ($1375 x .45).
Another example. Let's say that after a chip count you have about 300K out of the 1 million chips in play (30%). You and the other 4 players decided to chop the top 5 prizes. Draw a line up from 30% until it intersects with the curve that represents 5 prizes. Then, draw a line horizontally to determine how much of the remaining prize pool you should "claim". In this case, you have a claim to around 25% of the total prize pool.
So, what do you think? Is this any good? If you want the excel file, just let me know.
