JJ's Blog

Guitar hero is the devil. It robs man of his useful pursuits and practicality. It squanders the day and wastes the mind. It is the 21rst century version of the 19th century coca-leaf soda or opiate medicines.

Ok, so I haven't blogged too much lately.

I was planning to make an entry every couple of days.

But that turned into once a week, and that turned into once a month.

Things have been pretty gloomy lately - economy, GM, election, etc....

I'll try to do better.

On the bright side, the Lake Orion Dragons are progressing through the High School football playoffs. This has been a ton of fun. We have been tailgaiting, celebrating the wins, etc....

I have to make a little analysis.

It goes like this.

I spent about 6 hours cleaning out the garage recently as I was preparing for my daughter's Halloween party. You see, I was going to be building a hauted maze in the garage as part of the fun. I add to that the 12 hours I spent on Thu actually constructing the maze. Then, I add to that the 3 hours of cleaning up the maze. I get a grand total of 21 hours (and $50 in supplies) spent on this haunted maze.

Now don't get me wrong, the maze kicked ass. Very scary.

It got me to wondering. What would my expectation be if I invested 21 hours in casino poker play instead?

I figure I could get 3 sessions (16 hours of card play, 4.5 hours of travel, 0.5 hours of breaks/screwing around) in at the casino for a total investment of 21 hours.

Based on my last 10 casino trips, I make $36/hour. So this hauted maze "cost" me about $600.

I could have bought a Sony Wii with Rock Band and had some $$ left over. Which do you think my daugher would have prefered?

So I put the smackdown, as predicted, on the Canadians at the Great Blue Heron Casino (just north of Oshawa Ontario).

The game was 5/10 limit holdem. I bought in for $100 and double up on my first hand when I was dealt pocket Aces in the SB. I found my self going to the flop 7 handed with 14 small bets in the pot. I kept betting and betting until I finally had to showdown my hand. Pretty cool.

Next Hand I get dealt 10-10. Same routine. This time, I turn trips after a flop of 9-7-3, but loose to a guy 8-10.

Other than that, I just played really tight and really agressive and things broke my way for once.

I won $594 Canadian which is like $635 in real money. Whoooo Hoooooo!

One interesting hand I lost went like this.

I'm dealt Qd-10d in middle position. After it's folded to me, I raise. A guy on the button calls as do the blinds. The flop comes Ax-Qx-9x. The blinds check, I bet, the button calls, one blind calls. The turn is a 5 making the board Ax-Qx-9x-5x. I have 2nd pair. It goes check around. The river is a 6 making the board Ax-Qx-9x-5x-6x. It goes check around. Everyone tables their hands.

I look but don't see an Ace anywhere. Ok, cool! I look but don't see a Queen anywhere. Ok. Cool! I start to lick my chops expecting the dealer to push the pot my way. I even get my one white chip toke loaded up. But alas, the guy on the button held 5s-6s for 2 pair an wins the pot.

It takes me a second, and I kind of had to think out loud, but...."WHAT?" I ask him, "when you called the bet on the flop, what where you hoping to hit?" He had no pair, no draw, and 2 under cards.

They play a very intersting style of poker in Canada.

So I went to Greektown and took savage beat after beat. I kept my cool, kept plucking away and steadily slid backwards to the tune of $300 playing 3/6 kill Omaha/Holdem Round by Round.

It really sucked. I thought I had the mental make up to readily accept other player's "curious" plays that cost me huge pots. And by "curious", I mean donkish.

However, it really got to me during this session. First, the dealers at GT are ungodly bad. I know it's probably not fair to generalize this broadly; however, there are enough of the bad ones to over-compensate for the few that are mediocre. The dealer's put me on tilt.

Then, there was this one really bad player that went on such a sick run of cards that I started to belive that it was my personal challenge in life to outplay him. When we started playing 5 handed, I was dealt so many naked Aces in position against him in hold'em that I thought the deck must be defective. I lost every hand. He outflopped me hand, after hand, after hand. He single handedly moved about $100 from my stack. Then, I moved tables and lost with a set of Aces vs. a guy who caught a gutter ball despite my uber-agression. Then, I lost my last buyin with AK on a K-10-3 board against a guy holding 8-9.

I'm sick.

But, I'm coming back tonight. I'm a gonna put the smack-down on the Canadians in Oshawa.

So I made a pact with myself that I would'nt blog again until the Huskers had some sort of big win or until I had a winning session at poker.

So I went to Cincinatti a couple weeks back and decided to try out the local gambling scene. They have some casinos about 25 minutes away in some back-water towns in nearby Indiana.

I went to a Riverboat casino call "Argosy". The poker room was surpisingly nice. It had about 17 tables. They were spreading NL 1-3 blinds 300 max through 5-10blinds no max. They also spread some limit games and a 5/10 Omaha8 game. Actually, the whole casino was pretty nice. It's kind of impressive what they can do on a riverboat.

I got on the list for the Omaha 8 game. I was about 6th in line.

While I waited, I played 3/6 limit. I played that game for 5 hours and a seat never came open on the O8 game - I guess it was kind of popular.

Good news. I won $115 at the limit holdem game. I hate to say it, but I think I'm really starting to figure out some pretty good strategies for this low stakes, no-foldem game.

In reality, there is no-foldem preflop, but people fold alot after the flop.

Some keys for me.
1) don't play suited-connectors (i.e., 9h-10h) and little pocket pairs in early position. These hands are garbage. There are just no implied odds when playing limit poker.
2) try to open raise most (~75%) of the pots you play.
3) Go ahead and make really thin value bets on the river - you get called a lot with worse hands
4) Identify the "bluffables" vs. "non-bluffables" and stick with your reads.
5) The sick drawouts are the price you have to pay to play with people who will call mutiple bets chasing a backdoor flush draws or calling with one overcard hoping to hit.

So 2008 has been a pretty good year for poker. That is, until recently.

You see, from January through July, I played 16 sessions.

I won money in 14 out of those 16 sessions. Plus, went on a win streak of 14 sessions in a row.

Then, Aug came. I’ve lost the last 4 session in a row. Mostly by playing bad.

Then, I’ve blown ¾ of my account on PokerStars by playing that evil new “8 game” they offer (Holdem, Omaha HL, Razz, Stud, Stud 8, PLO, NLHE, 2-7 triple draw)

I really suck at poker.

Luckily, I have football.

I’ve got a heads up battle with a work collegue. We pick Michigan and Nebraska vs. the point spread each week. It's looking like I'm up one game after week one (I picked NU -14.5 and Utah +3.5, he picked NU and Michigan -3.5) Michigan is on the ropes deep into the 3rd.

Then, I’ve got the NFL fantasy football. It’s a winner take all $100 league. I'm a lock. Adrian Peterson is going to be off the hook this year.

So I'm playing a little $10 headsup DDR against some 10 year old. We're playing battle mode, of course. I figure to be about a 4:1 favorite if we get any disco song circa 1985 or earlier. What do you know, I get lucky and draw "Disco Inferno". This juvenile is history! Burn baby burn!

We get into it. I've got my funky groove on. I'm hitting my combos and bonuses like a chapmp. I start freestyl'n a little- you know spins and drops. Then something goes horribly wrong. I get off of my pad a little and start missing a few steps. Then, I have a hard time syncn' back up. I take a deep breath and try to get back in it, but its too late. The punk beat me. Talk a about a "snap drag" (that's DDR terminology for getting really unlucky against an inferior opponent).

I go on to loose 8 more times in a row and completely blow my DDR bankroll.

Looks like its back to poker!

This blog is hereby dedicate to game 200% better than poker - and potentially more profitable.

D.D.R

Dance Dance Revolution.

That's right bitches! Bring it!

So I left work a little early on Friday and met a friend at the beautiful MGM poker lounge (first time for me). They spread a little deeper game ($1/$2 blinds - $300 max).

First, the poker room is very comfortable and clean. The dealers and floor were noticeable nicer (except when they were issuing a warning to Skalony about his table talk during a hand). Plus, the players were a rich mix of aggressive young internet poker punks, middle aged pseudo-intellectuals (me), and a few “wanna have fun” retirees. This is different than the NL game a Greektown where the entire table is made up of poker pro apprentices in training who can quote the drawing odds% within decimal precision for every all-in situation.

I played for like 3 hours, won $174, all is good!

I had to grind it out though. I really only had 1 good pre-flop hand and 2 good post flop hands. The rest of my wins were made just by playing aggressively from late position.

Unfortunately, 3 out of my 4 interesting hands came up against Skalony.

On the first hand, the pot is limped in 5 spots to me in the big blind. I have 3-5 and check. Flop come J-3-5. I bet $15 into a $10 pot. Only T calls. The turn is sort of blank 7 [J-3-5-7]. I bet $30. T goes all in for like $65. I call and fill up and win.

Then, there’s this young aggressive internet poker punk (YAIPP) to my right. He has been uber-aggressive from the blinds/early position. On one hand, he raises a 5 way limped pot from the BB. He continues his aggressiveness all the way to showdown and then shows a K-10o. So I start to thinking that he may be a bit of a manic.

So, on this one hand, the YAIPP raised to $15 from UTG. This smelled like a scared bet to me (i.e., AQ or 44), so I raise to $45 with Ac-10c. The table folds. YAIPP calls. The flop comes 6-9-5. YAIPP checks. I ask for his chip count ($115). I bet $75 and win it. Nice play me….at least it worked.

Then toward the end of the session, I’m in middle position with 4s-7s. I think I had been playing kinda tight, so I raise to like $8. I get the pot HU vs. Skalony. The flop comes 4x-7x-X. I bet. T calls. The turn looks like a blank. I bet. T folds. I show 4-7 for a flopped 2 pair, win the pot and some “crazy player” equity.

Then on the next round, I’m UTG, and pick up AA. I raise. Only Skalony calls. The flop is something like J-4-6. I bet. T calls. Turn is a 7 [J-4-6-7]. I check. T bets smallish (1/2 pot). I was planning to check-raise, but I seriously considered taking one off and letting Tony bluff the river. My better sense took hold, and with a draw heavy board, I check-raise but only 2.5x (dumb, I know). Skalony calls. My plan is to check/call just about any river. A 3 comes on the river. The betting goes check-check.

Good fun. I’ll play at MGM anytime! Such a nice contrast to Greektown.

So, I took 2 weeks off from Poker and then came back by hosting a home game this weekend.

Played pretty good in the tournament ($70 buyin - 20 players). I chopped 1st with the chip leader, Gillis, right after 3rd place (Stacey C.) was eliminated. He had a 3:1 chip lead, and I chopped for 33% of the difference between 1st and 2nd. Seemed fair for me.

I didn't really have too many interesting hands in the tourney. I just played solid, straight forward poker and was blessed with enough winning hands to make the final table.

Then when we were about 8 handed, it seemed like I was really reading the table well. I know, I know, people say that all the time..., "my reads were dead on" etc..., but I swear, I was really being conscience of my reads and I felt like I was really locked in.

Here's the problem, I only had gonads to make plays 3 or 4 times. Each time it worked. This really helped accumulate enough chips to keep going. I need to get some gonads. I'll work on that.

Then, when the blinds were at about 500/1000, we were 6 handed, I open shove with 9h-10h for about 12x (12000???) and get called by Compton, who was nursing a big stack like it was his infant child. I was in big trouble. He had A-Q. Flop comes x-x-10. I take the lead. Turn is a Q. I loose the lead. River is a 10. I double up and am in really good shape.

Side note earlier in the evening. I raise with A9s. Compton calls. We're HU. Flop comes J-J-9. Compton bets. I call. Turn is a blank. Compton bets. I call. River. Compton bets about 20% of the pot. I call and look like a fool after Compton claims, "boat". Then, everyone gives me a hard time. Like, "dude, that's Compton, what were you thinking?"

I win like $60 at the cash game by playing really bad.

There's this one hand where I somehow ended up in a capped pot of Limit Holdem with 5-6 of clubs. The flop comes 9x-10c-Jx. Checked to Compton who bets. I start figuring some odds. Let's see. 4 bets times 4 players = 16 small bets. Plus Compton's flop bet = 17 bets. Let's see. I'd need to call one bet, chasing 17. That's a fabulous price. But I need to have some sort of draw, a gutshot, something.

In this case, I just keep staring at that one lone club on the flop. I start imagining it being joined by a couple other members of the club family.

That's right. I'd need to catch runner-runner. I don't know the odds exactly but I think runner-runner clubs is about 5% (actually, it's closer to 2%), so I toss in the $2 and try to get lucky. Turn is a club. I pick up a flush draw. Compton bets. There are now 10 big bets in the pot. I need to call 1. Getting 10:1, but being a 5 or 6 to 1 dog is the right price. River is a club. Compton check/calls and I bust up his set of 9s by going runner-runner.

Sorry Bro!

No poker for last weekend - or this weekend either (most likely).

I am going to the Buick open in Grand Blanc on Saturday. Should be fun. My son is getting into golf a little, so maybe this will pique his interests.

So make it 11 winning sessions is a row.

+$140 at the casino playing $5/$10 limit Omaha/Hold'em round-by-round and then +$30 at a home game playing $1/$2 limit mixed games on Friday night.

I played really bad in both sessions. As an example. At the casino, we were playing the Omaha round. Two big spenders from California just settled in and started straddling and raising....you know, really juicing up the game.

On this one particular hand I was in middle position. It was folded to me. One big spender was on the button, the other big spender was in the small blind , so I had my targets "locked in". I raised with 8x-8x-Jh-Ah. One late position player calls as does the big spender on the button.

The flop comes 3x-6x-7h. I check. LP player checks. The button bets. I make a gigantic donkish call reasoning that I had an overpair and a backdoor flush draw. Plus, I held 2 of the straight cards in my hand. Plus, I really figured the big spender to be putting me on a hand like AA or KK and he may be trying to run a bluff since he has position.

The late position player folds.

The turn brings the 10h making the board 3x-6x-7h-10h. I picked up the nut flush draw, so I check/call. If this guy is bluffing, he's not giving up. Maybe he has a hand after all. There are about 100 straights on the board right now. I guess he might have hit that flop.

The river is a thing of beauty, 2h for a board of 3x-6x-7h-10h-2h. I figured (correctly) that the big spender from California would not be one to miss a bet - and could not put me on running hearts to make a flush, so I check raised him on the river and score a nice pot.

He was incensed and started calling me names. I had to agree with him.

My opening raise was OK. The call on the flop was horrendous. The turn call was OK with the nut flush draw. The check on the river was horrible as well - luckily it worked for an extra bet.

I carried my bad play onto the home game, where I ended the night completing the straddle cap on several hands of Omaha 8OB. This is such a bad play. Think about it. When 3 players straddle, re-straddle, and cap-straddle, anyone with an average hand can call and take a flop.

This is exactly what happened. We'd end up taking the flops 6/7 handed with 24 to 28 small bets in the pot. Then, on the flop someone would bet, and everyone else was getting like 30:1 to make a call. I'm not sure there is a hand-to-board pairing that is a 30:1 underdog. So, everyone calls. Now on the turn, everyone is getting like 15:1 on a call (so even if you have like 3 outs to scoop, you are getting about the right price). It was mayhem.

Another cool hand was when we were playing 5 handed Omaha 8. I pickup AA28. I raise and am called. The flop comes 2-4-10. The other player bets out. I figure my AA might be good for high, and I had a bad emergency low draw. So I call. I'm not as scared to play bad lows when HU in Omaha8 (this may be a leak).

The turn comes 3 for a board of 2-4-10-3. Joel bets. I raise and tell him that I've already made a wheel. He says 'thanks' and mucks his hand face up. He held AA2X. I showed him my bluff. He is a little stunned that I would lie like that to steal the pot. When I start raking the pot, he is looking at me like I should chop it up and split it with him. So, I ask, "are you thinking I should chop this pot with you?". He says, "well yea, after all, you lied." (or something like that).

I didn't split the pot with him, but I felt a little guilty. That is until I started to think about it. Isn't lying and gamesmanship part of the fun?

So I’ve been on kind of a good run lately. If you let me have a pass on one session where I lost $2 at Greektown a few weeks back, I’ve had 9 winning sessions in a row. I gotta be honest, it feels pretty good. I think I may be starting to develop a misguided perception of my own abilities - kind a like the crank addict who thinks he’s indestructible….that is, until he tries to wrestle the 280 pound county sheriffs deputy in the parking lot at the corner Quickie Mart and gets cracked in the forehead with a steel police baton.

So now I’m sort of waiting around for my own poker version of getting cracked in the forehead.

Anyway…

This last weekend, I was a bachelor, sort of – the wife and kid went to Indy for a wedding. With all of this freedom, I decided to head to Greektown. After struggling for like an hour and a half to get there (the freeway was closed), I was finally able to get on a table. I won one big kill pot with top set in the first hour. Then, they kicked us off of the table to make room for the heartland poker tournament. So, I spent an hour and a half getting to the casino and an hour getting home. My payoff – 1 hour of play and up $62. Yipeee! Now I know why people play online poker.

Then, later that evening, I headed out to VanKeno’s for a home game. I haven’t played in a home tourney for a loooooong time. We played a $60 NLHE Heads up tourney. Since I got a first round bye for being such a skillful poker player, we played a cash game (NLHE $1 blinds) to start. I won a big pot off of Finkle when I woke up with A-A in the big blind. A late position player raised. I called as did Finkle. Ya da, ya da, ya da. We both spike sets and I win a stack. Then, I won a stack off of Boone when my AJ turns a boat vs. boons AQ (top trips with a Q kicker).

In the heads up tourney, I pull a the worst possible draw – a former champ, the black widow of poker. She disposes of me with little effort and in quick fashion. I dunno. I read a book on head’s up poker that said when you flop top pair, it’s the same as flopping a set in full ring. So when I flopped top pair against the black widow, she kept check-raising me and winning huge pots when I was out kicked.

Anyway in the cash game afterwards, I started off pretty hot. I played loose and wild and won some big pots. I was up to like $500 before I tightened way up (when the table started getting loose/wild). Then, I slid back to like $300 before calling it a night at 4a.

Here’s the JJ chart for your viewing pleasure.

So I headed down to Greektown this past weekend. Started playing NL. Moved to 3/6 when a seat opened up. I won $140. Whoooo Hoooo!

Only problem, is that I made a 50/50 deal with a friend that I went with. He lost $300, so not such a good night after all.

My table was really really juiced up when this drunk, greek chick sat down and started really donking it up. She won 6 hands in a row. When you win 2 in a row at this game, the stakes double. $3/$6 becomes $6/$12. It's really important to win the hands you play at the higher stakes if you want to have a productive session. She accumlated about $400 in profit within the first 20 minutes.

On one hand, we were 6 handed. It is a kill pot. I raise from the button with Q-9 suited. I have 4 callers. The flop comes 7-8-9. It's checked to me. I bet. Just the drunk chick calls. The turn is a 4. Check-bet-call. The river is a 2. Bet-call. She shows 4-2 for a running 2 pair. Wow!

I get my revenge though as I personally remove about 2/3rds of her stack.

But I got to tell ya, the most exciting poker action happened this Wed night when I sweated my poker buddy, Russ Harriman, from Clarkston over the internet as he played at the final table of the $1500 pot limit holdem World Series bracelet event in Las Vegas.

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/tourney/updates.asp?tid=4897&grid=411

Exciting chit! Go Russ!

Little advice. Get a players' card from Greektown. You'll need it to get access to their new parking deck. I guess when parking gets tight in downtown Detroit (i.e., when there is a playoff hockey game, tigers game, and a music festival on the same day), Greektown gets hardcore with their parking.

So, I played a little poker at G-town. Lost $220 playing NL $1/$2 blinds. No big pots to speak of. I just sort of lost $40 here, $40 there, next thing you know, I'm down $220. So I switched games and played $3/$6 limit. Went on a pretty good rip. Won $218 for a net loss of $2. What a comeback!

Then, I played $1/$2 NL $200 max for about 2 hours. Won $122. No big confrontrations. One time, I flopped a straight and got pretty good value on 3 streets. One hand, I flopped two aces to go with the Ace and 10 in my hand and found a non-believer in the group. The other hands were just preflop raises followed-up by a cbet to take down small pots.

Good weekend of poker, landscaping, kids stuff, basketball, etc...

So I played some high stakes shufflboard in Dallas ($20 a game). Won $80. Still running good.

It helps when your opponents are bad, hate to loose, and have a weakness for trying to "get their money back".

So I’ve been on a pretty good streak lately at the poker table. I just finished my sixth winning session in a row this past Saturday night.

I’ve also stepped up, a little, in stakes. Three of my last 4 sessions have been $5/$10 limit. I think the 5/10 game plays a little bigger than $1/$2, $200 max NL game. The pots seem to be around $60 - $80 and you can cycle up and down $100 real easy.

The game was 5/10 Hold’Em/Omaha round by round at Greektown. I went with my good buddy, JB. You gotta love Greektown. This game was really, really soft – full of old retirees who only raised with the nuts. I’m going to make this my new #1 game of choice.

I was down a little when a huge hand broke out. I have J-6 offsuit during the Hold’em round. Somehow, I turned this trash hand into a $1200 profit for me – read on.

Here’s how it went down. One retiree raised preflop and is called by another retiree – both ladies – mother and daughter I think. The flop comes A-A-A. I’m not sure how the betting went, but the turn and the river each see a bet and a call. The first lady tables KK for a full house Aces full of kings. The second lady tables A-Q for quads. The table erupts in cheers. The bad beat jackpot just hit.

The table share was $1280. Man! I’m a good poker player.

The rest of the night was uneventful. I joined JB at the 3/6 limit table and donked off about $60 bucks unable to concentrate too much.

I did have one good play at 3/6. I’m in the BB with 7-2 offsuit (no kidding). With 4 people to the flop. The flop comes 7-2-4 with two hearts. I bet, UTG (JB) calls, UTG+1 raises, fold, action to me.

I smell a free card play coming (I saw this guy use the play once before). This is the play where a late position player raises the flop and hopes action is checked to him on the turn. That way he gets to see 2 cards for the price of 2 small bets (made on the flop) instead of a small and a large bet.

So, I’m thinking, “what’s the best way to “blow up” a free card play?” Here are my options (A) 3 bet the flop and lead on the turn (B) call the flop and lead on the turn.

I chose (A). It worked! Both EP players groan and call the 3rd bet on the flop. Then, when I lead out on the turn, both players groan and call again. Then, when the river is a blank, both players muck - both of them on a flush draw - one of them on a straight flush draw. I quietly celebrated what I thought was a pretty good limit poker play.

It looks like the last post was just about a month ago. I guess I'm not playing very much poker. Probably a good thing. My daughter is in softball which is really cool. I love it. But she has games 2 nights a week. Also, I'm playing in a bball league 1 night a week - also very cool.

I got in some casino action this last week. On a business trip to Cananda, I stopped in a for a few hours at the Great Blue Heron. This was the place that kicked my ass about 4 sessions in a row. But, I was coming off of a win the last time I was there, so there'll be on intimidation this time.

Played $5/$10 limit Hold'em. The canadians are pretty bad at this game. Not all of them...just most of them.

I won $310 in about 4 hours of play. I played really tight and got some good hands - especially in the small blind.

Example: I have A-9 off suit in the cuttoff. 2 players limp in front of me. I've got a calling station in the small blind. I fold. Good play, right?

Example 2: I've got K-J off in middle postion. 1 player limps. I fold.

I flopped a full house from the SB with 8-8 and won a big pot. I flopped the nut flush with Kc-8c in the small blind an won a big pot. Then, I rivered a straight flush with the Ah-5d from the small blind and set some American dude from Atlanta on uber tilt. Finally, I flopped 2 pair with 8-9 in the small blind, my opponent turned a straight, then I rivered a boat and won a nice pot - once again from the small blind.

With AA, I won a nice 4 handed pot - can't belive the hand held up unimproved.

I lost a couple of nasty flush over flush hands - where I thought I'd raise for value on the river. Oops.

5 winning sessions is a row. Whoo Hoooo! No jinx.

Off to watch the Pistons clean up a small mess they have with the Sixers.

So, I've been up and down with gambling lately.

I've won a little a poker.

I lost in the semi-finals of fantasy bball...not because my opponent had a better team. Instead, he just substituted warm bodies to fill his roster on Fri, Sat, Sun and came back from down 7-2 to beat me. Hats off - I guess - for a winning strategy.

If Kansas wins on Monday night - I win $150.

I went to the executive game on Saturday night. This is the game where I play a little over my head as far as bankroll goes. The game is $1/$2 NL, but the game plays much bigger. I took $600 with me - as it was likely I could need to rebuy 3 or 4 times to stay in the game.

3 fun hands came up.

The first hand I get AA cracked. No big deal. I only had $85 in front of me, so it didn't cost me too much. Plus, I took a little satisfaction from trapping a fish really good...before he sqirmed out of my trap and stacked me.


I had been watching a fish to my right raise with really marginal hands, from any position for a couple of rounds, so I decided to spring a trap. I thought I'd reraise alot to isoloate and then win the pot on the flop with a c-bet. The isolation part didn't really work. I ended up in a 5 handed pot with $150 and I only had $75 left behind...but it work out good.



Then one one hand I score a big pot (maybe the biggest ever for me) when I hit a set. I had a stone cold read that the uber loose player was on a flush draw. I bet as much as I thought he would call (in error). Then it gets interesting. Outcome was pretty cool though!



Up $500 for 3 hours work at the executive game...not too shabby.

Well, thanks to 4 winning sessions in a row, I’ve got my winnings chart headed in a northerly direction and I’m feeling pretty good.

I know it’s kinda weak, but I just passed another small milestone ($6000 in career poker winnings). I wish I had it all in a cash box somewhere – I’d head to Vegas.

I’ve got a razz question if anyone would like to opine.

This hand came up in a $5 HORSE SNG last night – I’m a big fan of these.

I bring it in ($14) with a King up and an A-2 in the hole. We get 3 limpers with a 6, 7, and 8 respectively. Then, the guy directly to my right completes the bet ($40) with an Ace up.

Action is to me.

After having mis-played this type of hand many times, I now believe this is a clear fold situation.

Here’s my thinking.

I’m getting like 7 to 1 on my call at this point (if the 3 limpers behind me call…which they will); however, I’m going to need to catch a good card on 4th street and hope that all 4 of my opponents catch bad to feel comfortable continuing with the hand. If this would happen, it would be the “dream street”. Do you know what the odds of me catching good and 4 players all catching bad are?

Well, I could catch a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. This gives me 21 good cards out of 42 unseen – 50%. (I’ll ignore bluffing cards, like a deuce, for both me an my opponents)

My opponents could catch a K, Q, J, 10, 9, or pair their door card. This gives them 23 bad cards out of 42 unseen for around 50%.

The combined probability of me catching good and all 4 of them catching bad is (0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50) or 3%. Plus, I should probably discount the number of available “good” cards for me since my 4 opponents probably have 4 to 8 of my outs in their hole cards.

So in almost all cases, I’ll still be behind on 4th street and facing another bet. Therefore, I should be prepared to call both a bet on 3rd street and 4th street. If I add up both calls and estimate the size of the pot on 4th street, I’m only getting like 4 to 1 on my calls.

Then, in almost all cases, I’m still behind on 4th street – but with a good draw….which I’ll need to come through. Plus, all of this doesn’t even account for the case where a couple of players squeeze me in the middle of a betting war.

All that said, I think the best play is to fold an (A-2)-K in Razz when facing a completed bet – even if it is painful to muck a beautiful Ace-Duece.

Agree? No? Is this too easy?

So after going 0 for 3 at the Great Blue Heron Casino (north of Toronto), I finally got a win.

I played $5/$10 limit Hold'Em - Canadian (equals $5.15/$10.30 U.S).

I played for 3 hours, won 2 pots and chopped 1 pot in those 3 hours, and won $155 Canadian. The pots were pretty big. The players were just as bad at this session as in the earlier 3 sessions.

In one pot, I got to put in 6 bets on the river against a real hot-head donkey type. The board was A-K-2-3-5 rainbow.

Quiz time. What could I hold that would allow me to put in 6 bets on the river? Not too hard to figure out is it?

After the fish calls my last bet and says something like, "I guess were chopping", he shows down A-4. I say, "I don't think so" as I take the pot with 4-6. I thought I might end up a victim of poker violence right then and there. He wanted to injure me. It was very fun.

So my experiment with 50 HORSE SNGs has cooled off a little. I’m down to just below a 50% cash rate. Still making a good ROI.

I played in a home tourney/cash game Saturday night. Went out 10th in the tourney. I played pretty good during the early stages (levels 1st, 2nd, and 3rd levels). I doubled my stack from 3500 to over 8000 by the time we down to 10 players – we started with 34.

On one hand, UTG limps, I over limp next with two 8s, and two more limped behind us. The small blind completes. Then, the big blind, who was short stacked and steaming (smarch), shoves for about 6x the big blind. The first limper folds. Action to me. Now the big blind’s range has to be narrowed down to, oh I don’t know, ANY TWO cards. So, I reraise 3x his bet to isolate. It works, we’re head’s up. He shows K-10 – I’m surprised to see a hand at the upper end of the range that I put him on. With all of the extra “juice” in the pot, I’m happy to be in a coin flip situation. I win with a boat over his flush.

Then, during the middle stages of the tournament, I played for like 2 hours with just 15 to 20 big blinds. I was playing pretty tight but knew I needed to switch gears. I just couldn’t find any resemblance of a hand when I was in position. Finally, when I was down to 15 BBs. I found a K-10 in the cutoff and raised. I get called by a station in the BB. I watched this guy call so many preflop raises from out of position and then just lead out at the flop that I though he probably thinks this is another steal opportunity….so I set up my re-steal plans. The flop comes A-10-x. The guy leads weak for about half pot. I wait a few seconds before I shove for a triple of his bet. He agonizes for a few minutes and calls. He shows A-6 and looks totally relived to see my bluff. Then he says, “man, I was sure I was out-kicked there”. I’m perplexed, “so why call then?” So bad!

I’m down $80.

Anyway, the cash game was much better. The cash game is really the feature event of the night. The tournament is just an $80 entry fee to the cash games.

We start playing $1/$1 blinds NLHE with $100 max stacks. Everyone buys in for max. I buy in lite for $60. I think there is an advantage to playing lite when everyone else is deep. If there would have been a few more people who bought in lite, I probably would have just bought in for the max.

Anyway, I loose my first stack. Down $140.

Then, things get interesting. The table decides to throw in a round of pot limit omaha on every other round.

During the first rotation of PLO (and I’m not exaggerating here), we must have had 25 all-ins. We had several multi-way all-ins with side pots everywhere. It was crazy. I saw a funny betting pattern about 3 hands in a row. It goes like this.

Limp, limp, raise, 3 bet, fold, call, call, call, call. Then the original raiser would re-pop it for like $65. Then the betting would (inexplicably) go call, call, call, fold, fold.

Nice.

There would be a $250 pot created preflop, and everyone had about $50 left behind to try to contest the pot post flop. The play was pretty bad.

Anyway, I was able to build my 2nd $60 buy in up to $430 before the table broke.

On one hand I limp in late position with K-K-K-Q (suited). This is a really bad hand. I was hoping to take it down post flop with just an overpair, or maybe I’d pick up some sort of broadway draw and bust someone with top 2 pair. Anyway the flop comes K-8-4 rainbow. A dream! The good fortune continues when I get someone to lead with a full pot bet into me. I re-pot, to protect a pretty thin hand. I get called. The turn is a 9 for a board of K-8-4-9 rainbow. I bet full pot again and take it down. Afterwards I show the three kings in my hand to match the one on the board. I say something like, “now that’s how you play a hand with 3 kings - you just need to flop the case king, make sure it is the top set, make sure there are no draws on the board on the flop, and make sure the turn doesn’t provide any additional draws. Kinda of a long shot, hu?”

Played for another couple of hours of $1/$2 blinds lost $20 and went home up $220 for the night (whoooo hoooo)!

Great fun.

Next I’m planning trip Canada tomorrow. May play some poker at the casino…probably not.

You know what 50 PLO SNGs has taught me:

1) Your draw usually isn’t really as big as it looks. I think a lot of Omaha players will flop a big draw (like a 9 card wrap) but become incensed when their draw doesn’t hit after all of their chips find their way to the middle of the table. Even a “big” draw (2 pair with then nut flush draw – 13 outs) is only about 50% against most other holdings that people will get all in with. Gigantic draws – 15 outs or more – are only a small 3:2 favorite. This brings me to my second lesson.

2) Don't Call. It seems like Pot Limit Omaha is really a game of betting. I think the fact that holding 4 cards (6 different 2 card combinations) creates so many possibilities, opponents start fearing the worst when you bet. When you combine all of these possibilities with aggressive betting, opponents start to imagine the best possible hands that you might have. After all, one of the first things a person must do when learning how to play Omaha is being able to identify the “nut” holdings. All of the possible 2 card combinations mixed together with aggressive betting is really an effective way to convince your opponent to give up fighting for the bounty in the middle of the table.

3) Domination. I guess one of the first things you learn when you start playing Omaha, is that if you get your money all in pre-flop, you are never really that big of a dog with any 4 cards vs. an opponents 4 cards...you are really not that big of a favorite either. Most good hands (AAKQ) vs. medium hands (5667) are only 60% to win. But....who wants to call off all off there chips as a 60:40 dog? If you are going to put all of your money preflop, make sure you are the one betting (gives you 2 ways to win) and make sure the pot has some extra "juice" from early limpers/raisers.

4) Suck-Outs. Finally, if you get pissed really easy when someone beats with an inferior hand, don't play this game.

So, how did I run over 50 SNGs? Cash 46%. ROI 25%.

Next up...50 HORSE Sit-n-goes. So far, 11 games, 6 wins, 1 2nd, 1 3rd for 73% cash and 131% ROI. Any chance I can run this hot through 50?

Ok. So, I played one last session for 2007. I won $27 at Greektown Friday night. Whooo! Hoooo!.

I was actually up $200 from an hour of play at the no-limit table. I was getting good control of the table of a brand new table that just opened. I had one of the 2 big stacks at the table. Things were looking goooood!

Then, I decided to join my friend for some $3/$6 limit Hold’em. So, I moved my chips and buckled down for some tight/aggressive, high-quality LHE.

The players were god awful. All of them. They couldn’t read the board. I saw one guy run failed river bluff raises, one-after-the-other, more times than I could count. I felt like telling him, “I don’t think that play works so well,” but I came to my senses and just praised him for having heart every time he tried this play.

Yada yada yada. I loose all but $27 of the profit I had made from NL.

Anyway, an interesting hand came up.

A pot is capped 5 ways preflop. The flop comes A-K-4 rainbow.

One player, who looked like the young Richard Dryfus, takes a stab at it after the flop and gets one caller. The turn is a 5. Making a board of A-K-4-5. The young Richard Dryfus bets out again and is again called again by someone who I’ll call Mr. Dumas (pronounced Dumb Ass – not Doo’ mas). The river is a 6 – making a board of A-K-4-5-6.

Richard Dryfus tries one last time and is sheepishly called by Dumas (remember, it’s pronounced Dumb Ass) who is apologizing as he makes his call.

Although, we had established a player’s only rule at this table that no one could apologize for making a donkey play and no player could complain about the donkey play of another, this one was an exception.

Dumas shows 7-8 for a straight to the 8. Richard Dryfus mucks his top set in disgust and chastises Dumas for his bad play.

When Richard Dryfus asked, “what did you call the flop with?” Dumas replied, “well, there was $60 in the pot and I just need to call one small bet to see if I could pick up a draw”.

I was floored by this.

I figured that he would need to catch “perfect, perfect” to make a hand. I wasn’t exactly sure, but I though the odds of catching perfect-perfect is about 1%. That means he needs to make about 100x his call of $3 to be getting the right price ($300).







Anyway, this type of poker expertise pervaded this particular table. I swear, this $3/$6 game has to be the most profitable game in the casino for someone who can read a board and calculate the right price needed to chase perfect-perfect.

I think I’ll go back tomorrow.

So I think my 2007 poker year has come to an end. I took pretty lengthy break in Sep, Oct, and Nov, but I was able to squeeze 3 games in 3 weekends in Dec, so I'm pretty satisfied.


On the first weekend in Dec, we played a 3 handed $2/$4 limit mixed game and I got schooled to the tune of $125.


The following weekend we played an 8 handed $2/$4 limit mixed game and I got lucky and won it all back - that, and I outplayed Karl in some monster pots.


Then, this last weekend I played at the ever so juicy golf-course game. This game is marked by lots of players with lots of $100 bills that they keep peeling off every time they need to rebuy.


And rebuy they did!

I didn't exactly count, but I'm guessing that within the first hour there was 15 rebuys at our 8 handed table. The rebuy frenzy settled down a little and probably averaged 4 rebuys per hour thereafter. This type of activity, really puts a lot of money at the table and makes the game play really big.


The game was $1/$2 blinds NL Hold'em with a $100 min / $200 max buyin. I had only brought $250 with me to the game, so I needed to get lucky early, or avoid getting unlucky early, or I'd be going home early. I bought in for $200.

The game was pretty loose/aggressive. By loose, I mean there was a whole lot of calling and overcalling of preflop raises. By aggressive, I mean there was a whole lot of aggressive plays at the pots after the flop - mostly as stone cold bluffs.

I decided the best strategy was to play super-tight preflop, but lower my calling/raising standards a little post flop.

I was up to about $350 when I got involved in a big pot. Holding A-4, on a board of A-3-4, I got another player to put his entire $150 stack into the pot on the flop holding A-10....I lost when one of the last two 10s comes on the river. Back to even.

I piddled my stack down to about $130 when I was dealt AA in the SB. A MP player open raises to $20. The player to his left calls. The player to my right (button), raises to $60. I go all in for $130. The player in the SB calls my $130 and leave $150 behind. The original raiser and caller bow out. The button goes all in with his $1200 stack and the Big blind calls - creating a side pot. Button show KK and confirms a label that I had been putting on him as a solid player. The BB shows A-10 and confirms a different label that I had been putting him on. The label rhymes with "ronkey".

I triple up.

Last big hand. I hold QQ when we are 5 handed. I preflop open raise to $20 from UTG. I get 2 callers. The flop comes 5-6-7. I decided to put about another $120 of my $300 stack in on this flop. So I bet pot ($60) on the flop and get one caller. This guy was pretty fishy. He chased, and mostly hit, every draw of the night. I saw this guy call $110 into a $65 pot chasing a flush draw against a short stack...and hit of course - reinforcing his bad play.

I decided that I may just be betting for value by getting my entire stack in on this hand. So, when a 5 comes on the turn giving a board of 5-5-6-7, I bet $120 and get check raised for my last $120.

With a pot of $540, I need to call $120. I very well might be up against 8-8, 9-9, 10-10, J-J. More than likely I was up against A-5, A-6, A-7, or A-8. Unlikely, but I may be up against 6-6 or 7-7.

Given the range, the pot odds 3.5 to 1, and the extra incentive of punishing the same guy who hit a 2 outer on me earlier, I make somewhat of a crying call and say, "I hope you didn't get lucky on me."

Villian shows 8-9 for a flopped straight. I wanted to puke. I didn't show my hand, but I said, "well, I guess I'll need a 5 or a queen".

A queen hits on the river. I hit my 4 outer and rake $650 pot against the guy that earlier hit a 2 outer on me for a $150 pot.

So the big question is-------------->What is the best strategy for playing a small blind (1/2) game, when the average stacks are big (400x - 500x) and the opening preflop raise is usually 7x to 15x - a game that plays much bigger than it should? I guess it really depends if you are deep or not. Comments welcome.

Next post, I'll share my winning secrets to fantasy basketball. It involves trading away top 50 players in exchange for players that you can put up on waivers 2 weeks later.

I guess I didn't realize how big of a fan I was until I read that Chip Reese had passed away. I felt really bad....like real fan would feel.

Anyway, maybe Chip will one day be credited with being the offical "father" of the offical championship game of poker - limit HORSE.

Did you see High Stakes Poker on GSN last night? It was very exciting. The biggest pot of the night - and quite possibly, the biggest pot ever played, came down between Guy Laliberte and David Benyamine.

The game is no limit holdem with a minimum buyin of $500k. They were playing with $100 antes, and blinds of $300/$600/$1200. With a live $2400 straddle, they created a $50K pot preflop with 3 players.

David flopped the nut flush draw and Guy flopped 2 pair (Kings and 5s). David pushes all in and is called by Guy. They both have about $600k. This makes the pot around $1.2 million.

I guess at these astronomical levels, players heads start to go a little fuzzy or something. After turning their hands face up, David looked like he had just been punched in the gut. Guy could not formulate a coherent sentence.

Then something unbelievable happens. Guy offers to just take the $50k in the pot and end the hand right there. David insta-accepts the deal.

What?

This was about to be the biggest payday of Guy's life and he settles for $50k? The only thing I can figure, is that he was so nervous that he couldn't think straight. This must be one of those classic big moment choke jobs that we see in other sports (ala Chris Webber NCAA finals time out).

I think even I could have put together a little analysis in the heat of the moment that would go something like this.

David has 9 outs to make a flush with 2 cards to come. Then, even if he makes a flush on the turn, I could make a boat on the river. I'll give him 8 outs. That means he wins about 32% of the time (8x4). I'll round this a little to 35%.

That means I "own" about 65% of his $600k stack. Let's see - 10% of $600k is $60K. Times 6 = $360K plus a half = $390k. So. I "own" about $400k of David's stack.

Let's see. I'm willing to pay a "risk premium" to avoid variance with 2 cards to come. I think I'll offer David a deal. I'll pay him $50K to not see the turn and river. I'll ask him for $350k. If he refuses the deal, I'll offer to run it 3 or 4 times to reduce my variance a little further.

But, there is just no way in hell I'm going to "give" him $300k of the money that I now "own" to avoid playing the turn and river. After all, I'm a professional gambler. I can only dream of situations where I get to put $600k in action as a 2:1 favorite.

So I played some live poker this past Saturday night. It had been around 3 months since I played. It was great fun to hang out and play some cards. I broke even for the night which was pretty bad because I had a better than average run of cards.

One hand came up that I can use some help with.

We are playing limit Hold'em. The play is really loose. Players (including me) are speculating with some pretty bad hands. We are playing 8 handed.

So after blinds are posted and two players limp, I find a K-J offsuit on the button.
Question #1: Would you?
a) Fold
b) limp into a 5 handed pot
c) raise

I chose to raise. I hate playing in unraised pots with a hands that are hard to know if you are ahead or not. I'd much rather limp with 3-4 suited than K-J. I think folding would have been a equally good option here.

My raise is called by everyone, which I could have anticipated, and we take the flop 5 handed with 10 small bets in the pot.

The flop comes 3-5-8. Both blinds check. The first EP player checks. The MP player (Flushie) opens for a bet. I don't really put him on an overpair to the board (he would have raised PF). I figure he must have a pair (i.e., A-8) or a draw (i.e., A-2).

Question #2. Would you
a) fold
b) call
c) raise

I chose to call. I really felt like if I turned a K or J (giving me top pair with a good kicker), I'd be in good shape. I have 6 outs to spike a K or J which puts me at 12% or around 7 to 1 against. The pot is laying 11 to 1. Plus, the price may get better if we get overcallers from behind.

I guess an argument could be made for raising to to try to fold someone holding a Q or an A - and trying for a free card on the turn, but I'm a weak fish, so I just called.

Much to my surprise, the SB (Skalony) overcalled. Then, the big blind (Tom) check-raised a field of 4 players - with 3 of us already committing money to this pot . What nerve! The first EP player folded. The MP player (Flushie) calls. Action to me.

Question #3. Would you
a) fold
b) call
c) raise

I chose to call. There's no questions - I'm definitely behind now. Raising is out of the question - after flat calling Flushie's lead bet on the first pass. I'm sure the Tom was planning to check-raise all along from the BB after hitting a pair. I can't explain Skalony's overcall. He must be on a draw. I think if I spike a K or J on the flop I'll probably take the lead. Now I'm getting 16 to 1 on my call and I'm still 7 to 1 against hitting a K or J on the turn. So I call. Skalony calls. There are 18 small bets (or 9 big bets) in the pot.

The turn is a beautiful Jack. I lucked out and now have top pair with good kicker. The board is 3-5-8-J rainbow.

Skalony checks. Tom continues his aggression (which he tends to do regardless of his cards). Flushie calls. Action to me.

Question #4. Would you
a) fold
b) call
c) raise

I chose to call. In retrospect this is probably a mistake. I'm not folding here. I think the correct play is to raise. If players are drawing, I should make them pay. Plus, the pot would be god awful big and players would call me down on the river with 2nd pair just to make sure I wasn't stealing a big pot. Plus, a raise would probably shut out Skalony but would be called by Tom and Flushie, who have already put money in the pot. This should have been great spot to score two more big bets.

After I call, Skalony calls. We are now 4 handed to the river with 13 big bets in the pot.

The river is even better than the turn. A king comes off giving me top 2 pair and a dog to only a set. The board is 3-5-8-J-K.

This time Tom Checks behind Skalony's check. Flushie checks.

I chose to check behind as well. Why? Because I'm an idiot - that's why! I already know I screwed up this street. I'm drawing the whole way - hoping to hit a big hand. Then, when I hit a miracle runner-runner, I get as little value as possible. Idiot!

Anyway - Tom mucks 5-3 for bottom 2. Flushie muck A-8 for top pair top kicker that got destroyed on the Turn and and again on the River. Skalony mucks QQ - which explains his overcalls on the flop and turn. (Sorry Skalony, but you played your hand even worse than I played mine).

So, good new - I collect 13 big bets. Bad news - probably could have collected around 6 more bets if I didn't play like such a fish.

I guess this makes up, a little, for the beat that was laid on me when I held AA and flopped top set on a board of A-K-x (on a Kill pot no less). The turn is blank and river is a 10 for a board of A-K-x-x-10. I was called down on every street by a player holding J-Q. We put in 3 bets on the river. I wanted to puke.

Oh well. Ups and downs. It was great fun though. I'm looking forward to next time.

I was so excited to have a Nebraska game on TV this weekend.


I have to tell ya, I still get really excited about watching my Cornhuskers. Oh sure, they've been down a little this year (4 consecutive losses heading into this weekend), but I still get so much enjoyment out of watching them. Forever optimistic, I guess.


But then, something went wrong. Something went really wrong. As I sat there watching the game on Fox Sports Net (thank God for FSN) and folding another load of laundry, Kansas and Nebraska traded scores for a while. Then, just as half-time was approaching, KU's score ballooned to 48 points. Still, I was optimistic.


Then, the second half happened. KU scored. And scored. And Scored. Nebraska had no ability or will power to do anything about it.


I wanted to puke. I'm not a real violent type, but I was seriously looking for something to punch. I'm just sick. It's totally depressing.


Then, for the rest of the day - and into Sunday morning, TV sportscasters were non-stop on this subject. "Just how far have the Husker's fallen?" "Is this the biggest collapse in football?" etc...

Incidental, have you check out Notre Dame this year?

Then, on Sunday I watched the hapless Lions destroy the AFC powerhouse Broncos. The Lions look impressive, improve to 6-2, and suddenly aren't so hapless. I can only imagine how the Lions fans must feel. After having suffered through so many years of just horrible front office decisions, pour coaching, and sometimes laughable play, the Lions look like they might be turning the corner.

So maybe the Huskers have hit rock bottom and I should look forward to the climb back up to the top.

So this is my second year playing fantasy basketball. I find myself falling into the same routine that I went through with poker. That is, phase 1, play the game badly, but have fun. Phase 2. learn the game and try to play better.

So during the first fantasy B-Ball season, my only strategy was to try to assemble a team that would dominate a few of the scoring categories and might luck out and win another couple of random categories. After all, you just need to win 5 out of 9 categories, and you win your head-up match-up for the week. So last year, I tried to put together a team of 3 point shooting big men. That way, I’d win the following categories: 3PTS, Rebounds, and FT%. I might get lucky and win PTS and blocks.

It didn't work so well. Not sure if it was a bad strategy or the fact that some of my big men turned into real duds (i.e., Andre Kirilenko).

This year I read up a little before the draft and tried to do a better job drafting a “balanced team”.

Fantasy basketball is somewhat similar to poker. If possible, you should try to start with a good hand (i.e., draft good). Then, you need to play the hand well (make a few trades or drop/adds to keep your scoring balanced). Then, in the end, you need to get a little lucky (i.e., pick up that dark-horse player –i.e., Deron Williams, that exceeds everyone’s expectations).

So my drafting strategy was as follows:
1. Draft a balanced team by position. This is key. You really can’t afford to have any open roster spots throughout the week because you don’t have certain positions available. You need to have a balance of Point Guards, Shoot Guards, Small Forwards, Power Forwards, and Centers. One way to do this is to give some preference to players that can play multiple (3) positions. But at a minimum, you need to make sure you have each of the positions covered and balanced.
2. Draft a team that provides balanced scoring across all of the statistical categories.
3. Draft a team of players that….plays. The player must not be injury prone (i.e, played 80 games last year) and they must log big minutes.

So here’s what I did.
Step 1. I built a spreadsheet that would sum up all of my teams statistics as I added each player during the draft. As I selected a player, I would copy/paste his stats from last year into the spreadsheet and watch the totals line change.
Step 2. Compare my team’s totals statistics to statistical winners from last year’s yahoo fantasy basketball league. The spreadsheet would automatically calculate a % deviation statistic for each category. Then, I graphed the % deviation. This way, I had a constantly updated graph of how my team was “shaping up” in each of the categories as I added each player – compared to last year’s category leaders. If I was doing well in the 3pt category (the bar was high), but doing poorly in the steals category (the bar was negative), my next draft selection would be used to address steals.
Step 3. I kept track of each of the positions my players could play. If I drafted a player that could play SF, F, and SG, I would count this player in all three positions. Then, I kept a running sum of players by position. That way, I could easily keep balance across the positions.

So, in the first two rounds, I just selected the best available players. Then, in the last 11 rounds, I would add players that addressed the needs that were indicated on the spreadsheet graph and that would keep balance on my roster. Before I selected a player, I’d just make sure they were not injured, played a “healthy” number of games last year, played a “healthy” number of minutes last year, and could play a variety of positions.

Of course the flaw with this strategy is that is based completely on last year’s performance (both for the players and fantasy teams). This strategy does not take into account situations like a player’s declining health, rookies, a player’s potential, or special situations (i.e., Kobe Bryant’s tenuous situation with the Lakers).

I think I drafted a pretty good team. I guess we’ll see if it can outscore my opponents.

So I just started playing online poker.

In reality, I've played online poker for the past couple of years, but it was usually for a few hours on the weekend, here and there, nothing too serious. I think I deposited a total of about $200 online at different sites. I'd play a variety of games, cash games, tourneys, etc... My main objective was to learn all of the different games. If I was hosting a Stud game at my house, I'd play nothing but Stud for 2 months. Then, if I was hosting an Omaha game at my house, I'd play PLO for 2 straight months. This is a good way to get some "volume" in on some of the mixed games so you don't completely embarrass yourself. I think I played at max stakes of $2/$4 limit H.O.R.S.E. Eventually, it was all gone.

So when I say I'm starting to play online, I mean that I'm starting to play with profit as the only objective. I'm approaching this kind of like a part time job (around 15 hours a week) and a small business (i.e., I need to invest a lot of time and effort initially and only expect a profit several months down the road).

It's a pretty low risk experiment, because if I'm no good, I'll only loose a little money. If I can actually beat the games, then I'll make a little money - down the road. The biggest downside is that I may waste 200 hours or so before I figure out that this is a bad idea.

Anyway, I'm playing NLHE. My question is what is the minimum payroll requirements needed?

Here's what I'm thinking. I'll play with 200 big blinds (double stack) and I'll move up when I have 50 stacks and I'll move down when I have less than 30 stacks.

First, I'm absolutely giddy about the WSOP televising 6 hours of H.O.R.S.E. My tuesday nights are locked up for the next 3 weeks.

Second, order is about to be restored in Huskerland. The legend, the original T.O., Tom Osborne is been tapped to bring order to the House of Husker. http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AoUt5a1imHVl72.kN5BkKXs5nYcB?slug=ap-nebraska-osbornereturns&prov=ap&type=lgns

Third, is there a funny show on network TV than The Office? I think not.

You know what playing about 10,000 hands of NLHE online has taught me….

Volume matters
When you can cram a whole bunch of hands into a small window of time, it is much more likely that you’ll experience a high number bad suckouts by your opponents. You are also able to put a bunch of bad beats on your opponents, and you are able to experience a really high number of hands that play out just the way they are “supposed to” – i.e., the best hand holds up after all of the money goes in.

When you play a live game session, you might get dealt AA 3 times. If you get no action 2 times and then get stacked when your opponent hits a miracle flop, if you’re like me, you assume that you are on some horrible run and the other players are really bad. If, by magic somehow, you were able to compress about 10 of these sessions into the same time window (as you can in online poker), you get a much more balanced view of the distribution of outcomes with AA (i.e., you get dealt AA 30 times, you double up 4 times, it’s folded around to you 10 times, you win with a continuation bet 6 times, you win with a turn bet 4, you have to fold to a dangerous board 3 times, and you get stacked 3 times).

So I guess I’m beginning to appreciate the variation and swings of NLHE a little more – and maybe I’m becoming a little more tolerant.

Profit Centers
I’ve also started to learn where profit comes from in NLHE for me. In business, you can make a profit by selling lots of items with a very small profit margin (i.e., newspaper) or you can sell a few items with a huge margin (i.e., yachts). In poker, you get an opportunity for both. Poker Tracker will tell you some of this info. But I’ve learned that I win $$ primarily from the following 4 profit centers. These are listed in descending order of profit margin.

1 – I flop a monster hand that is well disguised and I stack someone holding premium starting cards. A hand came up last night that is a good example. I held 4-6 suited in the big blind and I was able to stack someone holding AA who min raised from the button. After the flop comes 5-7-A, it goes check, check, and a 3 comes on the turn, and we re-raise each other until we both have a double stack in the middle of the table – Gigantic margin
2 – I flop a set – Big Margin
3 – I start with a premium hand and it holds up – Medium Margin
4 – I play a mediocre hand in late position and catch a flop or I win with a bluff – small margin (4 or 5 Blinds)

When I multiply the margin from these 4 situations by the frequency of them happening, I discovered that I’m making most of my money from profit center #4 – that is, playing aggressively from late position. The following hand illustrates this. I’m in the cutoff with J-9o. Action is folded to me. I raise it 4x the BB. The SB and BB defend. The flop comes A-10-8. SB and BB check. I bet 2/3rds of the pot and win it. This is a pretty low risk, standard play. The margin is pretty small (8 big blinds), but it happens so frequently that it has become my #1 profit center.

You can tell I'm missing poker.

So an interesting hand came up the other night playing euchre. I’m not a euchre player. I have absolutely zero skill at this game. But I thought we might be able to use some of the same concepts that we use in poker to analyze the correct play.

Quickie overview of Euchre
So we are playing 4 handed (which I guess is standard – even though there are 2 handed or 6 handed variations). Euchre is played with partners. The goal is to score more points than your opponent’s team (a race to 10 points is a game). You score points by taking “tricks” as in other suit game like hearts or spades. The game uses 24 cards (A through 9). The rank of the cards is the same as in poker except the Jack (aka right bower) is higher than an Ace for the trump suit. Another wrinkle is that the Jack that is the same color but different suit as the trump is the second highest card. This is the left bower. For example, when trump is hearts the ranks are Jh, Jd, Ah, Kh, Qh, 10h, 9h. The ranks for the other suits (non-trump) are standard poker ranks. For example when trump is hearts, the ranks for spades and clubs would be A,K,Q,J,10,9. The rank for diamonds would be A,K,Q,10,9 (notice that the J of diamonds is not used since it would be a left bower for trump).

You are dealt 5 cards each. The remaining 4 cards are put into a discard pile. Then, the top card from the discard pile is turned face up. Each player, in order, has the option of declaring that card’s suit as trump. If that card’s suit is declared as trump, the dealer puts that card into their hand and discards another card. If everyone passes (checks) on declaring trump, each player in turn has the option to declare any other suit as trump. If no one takes their “option” to declare trump, the dealer, who is last to act, must declare trump (this is the variation called “stick the dealer").

You can score points in the following ways:
* When you order trump and take 3 tricks or 4 tricks – 1 pt
* When you order trump and take 5 tricks – 2 pts
* When your opponents order trump and fail to take 3 tricks – 2 pts (called “getting euchred”)
* When you order trump and “go alone” (do not use a partner) and take 3 tricks or 4 tricks – 1 pt
* When you order trump and “go alone” and take 5 tricks – 4 pts
* When you order trump and “go alone” and fail to take 3 tricks – opponents score 2

The Setup
The opponent to my right (villain 1) is dealing and after it is passed around, she orders up hearts as trump when she picks the 10h off the pile. She then proceeds to take all 5 tricks when she plays 5 successive trump cards – no one else had trump. As it turns out, they whomped us 10 to 0 in that game.

Like poker, it is somewhat expected and traditional to berate a player for making a stupid play after they beat you. So me and my partner started give our opponent some shit for not going alone and trying to score 4 points. She defended by saying that since she had neither bower, the correct play is to use a partner.

Let’s take a look at the situation.

Since Villain 1 had 5 trump cards, there are only 2 trump remaining. These 2 remaining trump (the 2 bowers – highest ranking cards) are somewhere in my hand, my partners hand, my other opponent’s hand, or in the 3 cards left in the discard pile.

Like in poker, I think we can just construct a decision matrix with scenarios and probabilities. The way I see it, there are about 7 possible scenarios. I’ve summarized them below

Scenario 1: If both bowers (Jacks) were held by me or if both bowers were held by my partner, we would take 2 of the 5 tricks – since one person on my team would have the 2 highest ranked trump cards. In this situation, villain would score 1 point by ordering trump and going alone or by ordering trump and using a partner. There is no difference in the outcome. Going alone or taking a partner would net 1 point.

Scenario 2: If both I and my partner held a bower each, there could be 2 “2nd order” outcomes. One, my partner could lead with a non-trump card which would be trumped by my opponent. She would then lead with trump and would “draw” both bowers from me and my partner on the next card. That’s one trick for us. Then, our opponent would take the rest of the tricks (4 in total). Two, if my partner leads with his bower, it would draw my bower, and once again, we would take 1 of the 5 tricks. In either case, my opponents would take 4 tricks. So, going alone or using a partner in this case would result in our opponents scoring 1 point.

Scenario 3: If both of the bowers were held by Villain 2 (Villain1’s partner), they would take all 5 tricks. In this case, they would score 2 points for taking all 5 tricks and using a partner, but they would have scored 4 points by going alone. In this case the better play is to go alone.

Scenario 4: If both bowers were buried in the discard pile, villains would take all 5 tricks. In this case, they would have scored more points by going alone (4) vs. using a partner (2).

Scenario 5: Either me or my partner hold a bower and the other bower is buried. In this case, my team would take 1 trick. Our opponents would take 4 tricks. They would score 1 point either way (going alone or taking a partner)

Scenario 6: Either me or my partner hold the right bower and our opponent holds the left bower. In this case, my team would take 1 trick. Our opponents would take 4 tricks. They would score 1 point either way (going alone or taking a partner)

Scenario 7: Either me or my partner hold the left bower but our opponent holds the right bower. In this case my team would take 0 tricks. Our opponents would take 4 tricks by going alone and would score 1 point, but they would take all 5 tricks and score 2 points by using a partner.

Summary
Out of all 7 of the possible scenarios, there are 4 (#1, #2, #5, and #6) that there is no difference in the points that result from the choice to go alone or to take a partner. There are 2 scenarios (#3, #4) where going alone results in 2 more points than taking a partner. There is one scenario (#7) where taking a partner results in one more point than going alone. Let’s assume for now that each scenario has the same probability of occurrence (1 out of 7).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scenario, Probability, Alone Pts, w/Partner Pts, extra Pts
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.....1...............1/7...............1..............1................0
.....2...............1/7...............1..............1................0
.....3...............1/7...............4..............2................2
.....4...............1/7...............4..............2................2
.....5...............1/7...............1..............1................0
.....6...............1/7...............1..............1................0
.....7...............1/7...............1..............2...............-1
==========================================

Then, the equation for points (EV) for going alone would be.

4 out of 7 chances you score 0 extra points + 2 out of 7 chances you score 2 extra points + 1 out of 7 chances you score 1 less point
Or
(4/7 * 0) + (2/7 * 2) + (1/7 * -1) =

.43 pts – this would suggest the best play is to go alone when you hold 5 trump with no bowers.

In reality, the probabilities of each of these situations are not identical. I think we can simplify the problem by just determining the probability for scenario 3, 4 and 7.

For scenario 3, the probability that our villain (knowing the 5 cards that are in her hand) can assign to the likelihood that her partner holds both bowers is 5 out of 19 unseen cards multiplied by 4 out of 18 unseen cards. This is similar to the way we calculate the probability of catching runner-runner flush cards in holdem. In this case it is 6%.

For scenario 4, the probability that both bowers are in the discard pile would be 3/19 x 2/18 or 2%

For scenario 7, the probability that either me or my partner hold the left bower and our opponent holds the right bower is 10 chances out of 19 unseen cards x 5 chances out of 18 cards = 15%

So the revised probability matrix might look like this

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scenario, Probability, Alone Pts, w/Partner Pts, extra Pts
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
..1,2,5,6........77%.............1..............1................0
.....3...............6%...............4..............2................2
.....4...............2%...............4..............2................2
.....7...............15%.............1..............2................-1
==========================================

So the revised EV is
(77% * 0) + (6% * 2) + (2% * 2) + (15% * -1) = .01 extra pts - this would seem to suggest that there is no real difference in going alone or taking a partner when you hold 5 trump cards with no bowers in Euchre.

As always, let me know if I got this stuff right or wrong.

This is the 3rd year that I've hosted a poker season at my house. I was looking for a poker series to play in that offered a variety of games and buyins around $50. There wasn't really any home game series like this, so I just start hosting the tournaments myself.

The first year, there was about 10 regulars and 10 "floaters". We just started playing tournaments and I sort of retroactively started assigning points to winners and declared a season champ. It was fun and mildly interesting to follow the point leaders through the season.

The second year the field doubled and people started taking things a little more serious. I remember getting emails from people who were correcting me on their finish spots from like 14th place to 13th place.

This 3rd year, the field has just about doubled again and interest from the points leaders just about doubled as well.

The seasons are always set to coincide with football season (what's better than Poker combined with football?) and to conclude well in advance of the WSOP.

This year, I ran into a big snag though. Due to some scheduling conflicts with family commitments I wasn't able to complete the series in June like planned. Then, I just had a family member experience some pretty significant medical issues.

So it was with much regret, that I just cancelled season 3 of the Husker House Poker Skills Series after having hosted 7 of the 9 events.

But the reality of the situation was that the season was dragging on for more than a year and I don't foresee me being able to host for another 4 months or maybe more - maybe ever.

Online Poker
But, all of this also means that I'm not playing any live poker. To be honest, I'm starting to get the willies.

As a substitute, I've been playing online poker more.

The main observation - online poker is an absolutely necessary part of any training to becoming a good poker player. I'm thoroughly convinced of this.

In a 5 hour session at a casino or home game, you can get it maybe 100 - 200 hands in. This compares to the 900 hands I can play in a similar 5 hour session on line (3 tables). This type of training really trains your brain how play tight (there's no need to play Q 10 offsuit from middle position) and how to play aggressively (you start thinking in terms of 'stacks' instead of dollars).

I highly recommend mixing in a good amount of online play.

So I took my gigantic payroll to the casino on Friday. I decided to play $1/$2 NLHE with $100 max buy-in. I was feeling super confident after winning in my last two sessions - $144 (Greektown) and $10 (home game).

It didn't go so well.

I lost $300....left with my tail between my legs (wait, that sounds weird) - left beaten and demoralized.

At this particular game, the players are pretty bad. I got sort of a bad "draw" though and found myself at a table with only 2 or 3 bad players - and they were the worst kind of bad players - weak/tight - the kind that give their money away slowly. The much prefered bad player is the weak/loose player followed by the loose/aggressive - the kind that gives their money away in big chunks.

Ordinarily, there is a person or 2 with $200 to $400, but pretty much everyone else has between $40 and $100 - making this a pretty "shallow" game. On average, I'd guess that most players have about 40 big blinds. I see so many players tossing in their last $30 holding a hand like pocket 7s when the board comes Ax-Qx-10x because they are "pot committed". Should make for a profitable situation.

I decided to play with $70 stacks and top off anytime I dropped to $50. The new rule at Greektown is that you can top off to $100 anytime you want. I think this is a direct result of competition - Motor City- that has similar rules. So for all of you commies out there don't think competition is good, I bet to differ.

Anyway, playing shallow makes me much more willing to commit my entire stack. It gives me a sort of "financial freedom". Plus, it feels like it gives me some added protection when I make a preflop raise of about $20. I can just continue after the flop for the rest my stack and it kind of ruins other player's implied odds if they pick up a draw or an underpair.

I dunno, seemed like a decent strategy at the time.

Anyway, I played super tight. I folded so many weak but enticing hands (A-6 in early position, K-Q after a raise and call, etc...). I don't think I open limped 5 times. I lost my first stack when I open raised with Ah-Jh for $15 after two limpers, spiked top-top, continued for $30 into a $40 pot, and got check raised for my last $25 from someone who flop a straight holding Q-9 off. So much for my short stack strategy.

I lost a few more stacks. Then, toward the end of the session, I bled a stack down to about $50 and found a hand (Ac-7c) after a really loose, gambler dude raised $12 from middle position, had one caller - who had about $36 left behind. I thought an all-in reraise to $50 had some pretty good equity. Here's my thinking.

I might win $27 in dead money if it goes fold-fold. I really thought I was about a coin flip against the range held by gambler dude if he calls. Plus, I really didn't think short stack dude would smooth call pre-flop with a pair higher than 7s - this makes me at worst a coin flip or slight dog against him if he calls.

After I lost the hand, I was looking forward to doing some math on the "correctness" of this decision.

Let me know if you think I got it right. I think the play had a positive EV ($19).

I thought there was about a 75% chance gambler dude would fold. I though there was about a 75% chance short stack dude would fold. If gambler dude called, I thought I'd win about 50% of the time given the wide range of hands he played. If short stack dude called, I thought I'd win about 50% of the time (if he had a stronger hand, I think he would have pushed pre-flop). If both called, I thought I win about 33% of the time.